Some interesting poll numbers in a swing town - Some Bad New for Menendez

The Inside Edge ^ | September 15, 2006 | Wally Edge

[sonrise57]

Some interesting poll numbers in a swing town

A poll conducted for the Democratic mayoral candidate in North Arlington shows Republican Thomas Kean, Jr. leading Democratic U.S. Senator Robert Menendez by a 47%-29% margin in this Democratic-leaning blue collar town of 15,181 people. The same survey, done by Neighborhood Research, gives Democrat Peter Massa a 31-point lead in the race for Mayor over Republican Peter Norcia, and Bergen County Executive Dennis McNerney a ten-point lead against his GOP challenger, Todd Caliguire.

North Arlington's voter registration is 30% Democratic, 18% Republican and 52% Unaffiliated.

In 2005, Jon Corzine won North Arlington by a 56%-40% margin over Douglas Forrester, and in 2004, George W. Bush won the town by six votes over John Kerry. Corzine carried the town narrowly (57 votes) over Bob Franks in 2000, while Al Gore won it by 850 votes. In 2003, State Senator Paul Sarlo won North Arlington by a 54%-46% margin; in the same election, voters picked GOP Assemblyman Paul DiGaetano and Democratic Assemblyman Frederick Scalera. Last year, North Arlington strongly supported the Democratic legislative ticket.

[Political Junkie Too]

Do you think that Kean would take that as passively as Forrester did? Don't you think that Kean would make a bigger stink out of it? I know that Forrester took it to the NJ Supreme Court, and the US Supreme Court refused to hear it, but in light of what the Democrats did to DeLay in Texas following what they did with Torricelli, if they tried it yet a third time wouldn't the US Supreme Court be more likely to step in this time?

A move like this by Democrats would undermine their arguments about being more trusted than Republicans, IMO.

-PJ

[Sicon]

Payback to the Hudson County Dem machine... Yeah, I think that's it.

Well, if Cody is the candidate, then he'd be a virtual shoe-in against Kean, right? As you said, he was pretty popular during his abbreviated Gubernatorial term, though I really wasn't paying enough attention to know why.

[justiceseeker93]

I just heard Sean Hannity give a teaser for his show starting now by alluding to "more New Jersey Democratic Senate shenanigans possible." (paraphrasing)

Stay tuned...

[gridlock]

A move like this by Democrats would undermine their arguments about being more trusted than Republicans, IMO.

I am a bad person to ask. I still can't figure out how anybody in their right mind could have walked into a voting booth and pulled the lever for Lautenberg after all that went on that year.

If the Democrats want to win, they are going to have to pull a switcheroo. And the Democrats have to win New Jersey. If they lose New Jersey, their dreams of taking the Senate are all but dead. Frankly, I never considered it to be a serious possibility, but they seem to think it could happen. But it can't if the Donks lose New Jersey.

Compared to the prospect of re-gaining power in the Senate, nothing else matters. Honor, justice, faith in the electoral process and every other consideration will be jettisoned without a second thought if that is what it takes for the Democrats to win.

[gridlock]

As you said, he was pretty popular during his abbreviated Gubernatorial term, though I really wasn't paying enough attention to know why.

Nobody was paying attention. That is why Codey was popular.

[Political Junkie Too]

I'm just saying that Kean probably won't be as easy to roll as Forrester in this scam.

-PJ

[HostileTerritory]

Codey has no desire to become a U.S. Senator. None at all.

It's that kind of unambitious attitude that made him so popular as Governor.

[syriacus]

Hey, why not have Lautenberg hold both Senate seats and get two votes in the Senate

Very creative idea!

[justiceseeker93]

I'm just saying that Kean probably won't be as easy to roll as Forrester...

We'll see. Both Kean and Forrester are pretty much RINOs, which doesn't auger too well in that regard.

Then you have the troubling recent history of Kean Sr. in cahoots with the Clintonistas on the 9/11 Commission.

[justiceseeker93]

Codey has no desire to become a U. S. Senator. None at all.

But what if they "make him an offer he can't refuse"?

[Lecie]

I wouldn't give much credence to any poll coming out of that state. Every NJ election we are treated to good polling numbers for the Republican candidate, and every election day the Republican candidate gets the tar beat out of him.

[Sicon]

Codey has no desire to become a U.S. Senator. None at all.
It's that kind of unambitious attitude that made him so popular as Governor.

Yeah, politics is a funny business, isn't it?

[mwl1]

I agree with you. The Keans have enormous influence; Forrester had essentially none.

Give the inherent corruption of the NJ Supremes, they may not even follow their own ridiculous precedent if the RATS try another switcheroo. The RATS are playing with fire and may end up with no candidate on the ballot.

[gridlock]

I'm just saying that Kean probably won't be as easy to roll as Forrester in this scam.

I hope you're right. If I were him, I would start raising the issue now. Not only does it improve his position later, should it come to pass, but it reminds everybody of how sleasy the Democrats are, even if the switcheroo is not attempted.

[HostileTerritory]

I agree. It's a great move because it forces Menendez and the Democrats to deny they'll do it, which has people wondering why it's even being discussed and what that says about Bob.

[conservative in nyc]

Nobody was paying attention. That is why Codey was popular.

Codey's popularity might have something to do with his in-person threat (while visiting a radio station to tape his monthly show) to beat up a radio talk show host who made some ugly remarks about his wife's bout with postpartum depression, and then refusing to apologize to the talk show host for standing up for his wife. That's probably the most memorable thing he did during his brief tenure as governor (other than not getting involved in scandal and not hiking taxes, like most other Democrat Jersey governors).

As for this poll, I'm skeptical that Menendez will lose. He just started running TV ads in the New York City market, trumpeting his role in defeating the ports deal (and standing up to President Bush), and his role as a prosecutor attacking corruption. I have yet to see a Kean ad on broadcast TV. I expect Menendez' poll numbers to go up. I don't think he's going to pull a last-minute switcheroo, either.

[jmaroneps37]

This is very nice news. I am familiar with Bergen County's politics and these numbers are surprising, but not unbelievable.

[justiceseeker93]

Every NJ election we are treated to good numbers for the Republican candidate, and every election day the Republican candidate gets the tar beat out of him.

Not true. Republican candidates may have "gotten the tar beat out of them," but none that was forecast to win by the polls. The reasons are obvious: polling is almost always done by pro-Democrat media or academia-based organizations (in NJ, the Star Ledger and Quinnipiac are the polls most often cited), and they build a pro-Dem bias into their polling techniques. So you can generally subtract say about four points from a Democrat's margin in polls to get a true indicator of what is really going on.