Posted on 09/13/2006 6:00:05 AM PDT by Uncledave
Jersey Turns, Dems Panic; Torricelli, Anyone?
By Steve Kornacki
A powerful clue that U.S. Senator Robert Menendez might ultimately be forced to withdraw from his bid for a full term in New Jersey emerged last Friday, when he addressed the question head-on just hours after the world learned that he is the subject of a federal criminal investigation.
“The answer is no,” he said.
That may sound a touch familiar to New Jerseyans. It was, after all, around this time four Septembers ago that Senator Robert Torricelli’s re-election campaign—besieged by similar speculation—spent a weekend attaching a simple, defiant message to Torricelli lawn signs around the state: “Nobody fights harder.”
The very next week, of course, Mr. Torricelli quit the race in tears.
And the rest was history—and the subject, no doubt, of recurring nightmares for many Republicans: Former Senator Frank Lautenberg was recruited to replace Mr. Torricelli at the last minute, and the Democrats ended up with a double-digit win.
For now, Mr. Menendez’s fellow Democrats—from Chuck Schumer, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chairman, to Jon Corzine, the governor who handed Mr. Menendez his Senate seat in January—are pledging their support. The same way they once stood by Mr. Torricelli.
Indeed, what is unnerving for Democrats in New Jersey and Washington—and for Republicans too, for that matter—is just how deep the similarities between the Torricelli and Menendez dramas run.
In 2002, you’ll recall, Mr. Torricelli, dogged by a variety of ethics questions, consistently underperformed in the polls, running even for much of the summer with a drab Republican candidate who’d begin his speeches as follows: “My name is Doug Forrester, and I’m the guy running against Bob Torricelli.” By mid-September, Forrester’s lead hit double digits—and this in a state that hadn’t (and still hasn’t) elected a Republican to the Senate since M*A*S*H was a first-season show.
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Likewise, Mr. Menendez has struggled to connect with the public the way an incumbent Democrat should in a blue state—especially in a year when the national climate is so favorable to his party. When a poll was released earlier this month—before news of the investigation broke—that placed Mr. Menendez five points behind his Republican challenger, State Senator Tom Kean Jr., he joined Mr. Torricelli as one of only two New Jersey Democrats in the last 34 years to trail a Senate race in September.
As with Mr. Torricelli, it is ethics that have dragged down Mr. Menendez, who won his appointment in part through the hefty political muscle he built as the reputed boss of Hudson County, a colorful collection of gritty towns that could easily have spawned just about every character Damon Runyon ever wrote about. The ghosts of his machine past have haunted Mr. Menendez in periodic news stories this year, and Republicans have made the notion that he has disqualifying “baggage” their central line of attack.
That is why the federal investigation is so damning for Mr. Menendez: The jury is already poisoned against him. Sure, he can cry foul and vow to fight. But the race was essentially a tie before this, so any fallout at all puts Mr. Kean in the lead.
Now, Mr. Menendez’s options are limited—and all bad. He began by attacking the prosecutor as overly partisan—a weak response given the dozens of corrupt Republicans who have been brought down by Christopher Christie, the U.S. Attorney leading the Menendez inquiry.
And his ongoing efforts to change the subject to national politics—as Mr. Torricelli sought to do in ’02—can now be trumped by Mr. Kean, who can lift a page from Mr. Forrester. “My name,” he can tell the masses, “is Tom Kean, and I’m running against a man who is the subject of a federal criminal investigation.”
If Mr. Menendez tanks in the coming weeks, it really will feel like 2002 all over again for national Democrats, who need a gain of six seats to win back the Senate—a feat that would be impossible with a loss in blue-state New Jersey.
Which brings us to the ultimate similarity between the two campaigns: In 2002, there was Mr. Lautenberg, a very well-known and reasonably well-liked retiree who was more than happy to play savior by jumping back into the game. This time, again, they have a living insurance policy: one Richard J. Codey, the former governor who left office last January, kicking and screaming, as perhaps the most personally popular chief executive in the state’s history. (A poll last November had Mr. Codey walloping Mr. Kean by 23 points.)
But look at us, getting ahead of ourselves. No Democrat is going to abandon Mr. Menendez—unless his poll numbers drop. And even then, there’ll be no “switcheroo” unless Mr. Menendez, like Mr. Torricelli before him, falls on his sword.
Jersey Democrats, for now, aren’t holding their breath.
As one put it: Mr. Torricelli’s ego couldn’t stand losing an election; Mr. Menendez’s apparently can.
Giggle..... the best thing he ever did for the state
New Jersey = dump
NJ Democrats = dump rats
My Gawd, I hope this is not a repeat of 02. Don't people in Jersey have any self-respect?
Yea I heard ... Menendez seems to be in big trouble
That State is one huge mess with their Dem politicains
Question is .. will the voters finally wake up
And yes, I wouldn't be surprised if Jersey pulls another Torricelli stunt
(No more Olmert! No more Kadima! No more Oslo! )
NJ isn't Texas.
They've already done it once and the NJ courts ruled it was ok.
Pointing out that Poritz is going to be deciding on gay marriage in NJ as her final decision which will come before she leaves end of October.
Poritz is the one who assured McSleazy that she would allow the Toricelli/Lautenberg switch to go forward. Will she do it again? Will her legacy be gay marriage in NJ.
Thank you, Christie Whitman for appointing Poritz. DISGRACE DISGRACE
I don't think the stunt is going to work this time if they try it.
The Kean family -- particularly the father -- still has immense influence in NJ. Forrester had none. This will help prevent a switcheroo, and there is no certainty the NJ Supreme Court will cave to the RATS vis-a-vis the Kean father.
Oh my. Well, it will open up a whole new day in American politics. No ballots would be printed until the day before the election. No way to know who the dem candidate will be until the polls tell them who can win. Unbelievable.
A little bit about Norcross...
http://www.nj.com/statehouse/ledger/index.ssf?/news/ledger/stories/0401norcross.html
Hands Across NJ galvanized across the state. In the end just about every single elected official, the good and the bad, were thrown out of office.
The newcomers were every bit as corrupt as the guys who were thrown out.
I remember when Mayor Addonizzio of Newark was convicted of tax evation and thrown in jail. That's the only charge they could get him on. He and Sharpe James were exactly alike.
NJ will never change.
Oh no! Not again!
Come on, now. Menendez, because he is a minority, is untouchable. If he were a non-Hispanic white he'd have been off the ticket by now. The Dems will stick with him 'til the end.
Don't try these political shenanigans in a REAL state like Texas. The "courts" and "judges" will shut down your political antics in a heartbeat. I did hear yesterday on the radio news that people in New Jersey don't care about corruption and expect THEIR politicians to act this way.
That would be disaster. However, even the libs here in this state have to be getting tired of the taxes. I just paid my monthly storage bill to find that it went up 10 bucks/month because of the new Corzine tax of 7% on everything that wasn't taxed before. Unbelievable.
The Republicans have to run as a write-in...
What the Rep's allowed with Lautenberg/Torricelli shouldnt be allowed again...
Someone may already have noted this, but ... Delay was a Republican in Texas. This is about a democrat in NJ.
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