Posted on 09/13/2006 6:00:05 AM PDT by Uncledave
Jersey Turns, Dems Panic; Torricelli, Anyone?
By Steve Kornacki
A powerful clue that U.S. Senator Robert Menendez might ultimately be forced to withdraw from his bid for a full term in New Jersey emerged last Friday, when he addressed the question head-on just hours after the world learned that he is the subject of a federal criminal investigation.
“The answer is no,” he said.
That may sound a touch familiar to New Jerseyans. It was, after all, around this time four Septembers ago that Senator Robert Torricelli’s re-election campaign—besieged by similar speculation—spent a weekend attaching a simple, defiant message to Torricelli lawn signs around the state: “Nobody fights harder.”
The very next week, of course, Mr. Torricelli quit the race in tears.
And the rest was history—and the subject, no doubt, of recurring nightmares for many Republicans: Former Senator Frank Lautenberg was recruited to replace Mr. Torricelli at the last minute, and the Democrats ended up with a double-digit win.
For now, Mr. Menendez’s fellow Democrats—from Chuck Schumer, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chairman, to Jon Corzine, the governor who handed Mr. Menendez his Senate seat in January—are pledging their support. The same way they once stood by Mr. Torricelli.
Indeed, what is unnerving for Democrats in New Jersey and Washington—and for Republicans too, for that matter—is just how deep the similarities between the Torricelli and Menendez dramas run.
In 2002, you’ll recall, Mr. Torricelli, dogged by a variety of ethics questions, consistently underperformed in the polls, running even for much of the summer with a drab Republican candidate who’d begin his speeches as follows: “My name is Doug Forrester, and I’m the guy running against Bob Torricelli.” By mid-September, Forrester’s lead hit double digits—and this in a state that hadn’t (and still hasn’t) elected a Republican to the Senate since M*A*S*H was a first-season show.
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Likewise, Mr. Menendez has struggled to connect with the public the way an incumbent Democrat should in a blue state—especially in a year when the national climate is so favorable to his party. When a poll was released earlier this month—before news of the investigation broke—that placed Mr. Menendez five points behind his Republican challenger, State Senator Tom Kean Jr., he joined Mr. Torricelli as one of only two New Jersey Democrats in the last 34 years to trail a Senate race in September.
As with Mr. Torricelli, it is ethics that have dragged down Mr. Menendez, who won his appointment in part through the hefty political muscle he built as the reputed boss of Hudson County, a colorful collection of gritty towns that could easily have spawned just about every character Damon Runyon ever wrote about. The ghosts of his machine past have haunted Mr. Menendez in periodic news stories this year, and Republicans have made the notion that he has disqualifying “baggage” their central line of attack.
That is why the federal investigation is so damning for Mr. Menendez: The jury is already poisoned against him. Sure, he can cry foul and vow to fight. But the race was essentially a tie before this, so any fallout at all puts Mr. Kean in the lead.
Now, Mr. Menendez’s options are limited—and all bad. He began by attacking the prosecutor as overly partisan—a weak response given the dozens of corrupt Republicans who have been brought down by Christopher Christie, the U.S. Attorney leading the Menendez inquiry.
And his ongoing efforts to change the subject to national politics—as Mr. Torricelli sought to do in ’02—can now be trumped by Mr. Kean, who can lift a page from Mr. Forrester. “My name,” he can tell the masses, “is Tom Kean, and I’m running against a man who is the subject of a federal criminal investigation.”
If Mr. Menendez tanks in the coming weeks, it really will feel like 2002 all over again for national Democrats, who need a gain of six seats to win back the Senate—a feat that would be impossible with a loss in blue-state New Jersey.
Which brings us to the ultimate similarity between the two campaigns: In 2002, there was Mr. Lautenberg, a very well-known and reasonably well-liked retiree who was more than happy to play savior by jumping back into the game. This time, again, they have a living insurance policy: one Richard J. Codey, the former governor who left office last January, kicking and screaming, as perhaps the most personally popular chief executive in the state’s history. (A poll last November had Mr. Codey walloping Mr. Kean by 23 points.)
But look at us, getting ahead of ourselves. No Democrat is going to abandon Mr. Menendez—unless his poll numbers drop. And even then, there’ll be no “switcheroo” unless Mr. Menendez, like Mr. Torricelli before him, falls on his sword.
Jersey Democrats, for now, aren’t holding their breath.
As one put it: Mr. Torricelli’s ego couldn’t stand losing an election; Mr. Menendez’s apparently can.
(No more Olmert! No more Kadima! No more Oslo! )
Yep...I smell another Torricelli switcheroonie cooking!!
Exactly...Adolph Hitler(D) would smoke Mother Teresa(R) in Joisey in every election.
If he isnt on the ballot, they cant put someone else on. Thats what they did to Tom Delay and the Republicans.
The Republicans have to run as a write-in...
What the Rep's allowed with Lautenberg/Torricelli shouldnt be allowed again...
I'm willing to bet they put up Codey at the last minute. Only in New Jersey! :(
The Dems didn't count on losing this seat. They probably will pull the same stunt they did with Toricelli to save the seat.
They might have to assassinate Menendez though. Wonder which one of the characters on the State Democratic Committee gets the honor?
(No more Olmert! No more Kadima! No more Oslo! )
Wait a minute. Don't count Menendez out until you find out how many illegals with Spanish surnames are registered to vote in NJ.
Ping....to what is in the works....ugh
And all of it aided and abetted by the NJ Supremos!
"Where does this power come from ,. GAH HH1!!!!"
It comes from kissing George Norcross in all the right places. I swear he must have pictures of EVERY one of this state's politicians in some sort of compromising position. He owns EVERY one of them!!!
That's exactly what I told my husband last night. Given Cody's popularity he would be a "shoe in" for the dims. What the uneducated electorate here in NJ fail to realize, is that Cody is part of what is very WRONG with NJ.
http://www.northjersey.com/page.php?qstr=eXJpcnk3ZjczN2Y3dnFlZUVFeXk2MDcmZmdiZWw3Zjd2cWVlRUV5eTY5ODk5MzMmeXJpcnk3ZjcxN2Y3dnFlZUVFeXky is an article entitled "Party Insiders Wonder if Menendez can Survive" discussing the behind the scenes whispers about replacing Menendez with former Acting Governor Codey or a state House member.
The Reps didn't allow it; the Supreme Kangaroo Court of the State of New Jersey did. (and they'll do it again for a democrat)
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