Polls find Perry loss isn't out of the question

Houston Comical ^ | 9-12-06 | R.G. RATCLIFFE

[Hydroshock]

AUSTIN — Two polls released Monday found Gov. Rick Perry is vulnerable to defeat, but his campaign is questioning the surveys' accuracy.

Conventional wisdom in the governor's race has been that none of the governor's four opponents would have a chance to beat him if he gets more than 35 percent of the vote on Nov. 7. There is no runoff in the general election, so the top vote-getter wins.

Perry has hovered between 35 percent and 41 percent in public polls for months. But he has fallen into the defeatable zone in polls done by Rasmussen Reports and the Wall Street Journal/Zogby Online.

The Rasmussen poll put Perry's re-election support at 33 percent, and the Zogby poll had his support at 31 percent.

"It's hard to see him losing above 37 percent, but below 35 percent, somebody might get that much out of the remaining 65 percent of the vote," said University of Houston pollster Richard Murray, a Democrat.

But Perry spokesman Robert Black said the polls paid for by news media companies should not be trusted because their methodology is not sound political science.

[GulfBreeze]

It I know during the 2000 elections and I think during the 2002 elections but I think he had formed his own group by 2004.

I am not sure of when the Battleground polls were started. It has been a prominent poll of reference for quite a while though and it featured both a GOP and Dem alligned senior pollster. It also was great because it had detailed analysis in chart and paragraph format.

[RichardW]

I heard him over at Baylor in Waco and he was extremely well received. He's got his act together and spoke frankly and without notes and answered every question put to him. Isn't that what we want in all our politicians?

How can we do worse than Perry? Who does he speak for? And what has he done for us? If there was ever a time for change it is now. I have no problems with Kinky. Let him have a chance at it and if he flops, we'll get rid of him too. I think he will surprise people and if he runs a second time he will win 75% of the vote. Mark my words. This guy is a winner.

Perry is a cipher. Strayhorn is a nothing. I know nothing about the Democractic candidate except I won't be voting for him. I've heard Kinky. He speaks frankly, is articulate and has a good sense of humor. All good attributes to have in any politician.

And BTW, I AM one of the petition signers who put his name on the ballot. Me, my wife and all my relatives as well. We've all had enough of Perry and we are often on different sides of the political fence. That should say something itself.

[AmishDude]

It doesn't matter whom you vote for, it matters whom you elect.

[AmishDude]

I heard the same talk about a candidate once.

Jesse Ventura.

[Hydroshock]

Taht is why I am voting for Kinky, to elect him to the governors mansion.

[RichardW]

"Kinky supports gay marriage and abortion on demand. That even one person at this forum supports him is surprising."

What difference does that make? He's not going to change the law on either of those issues anyway. Everyone has opinions on both subjects and neither affects our pocketbooks. Frankly, I could care less.

Ultimately both of those issues will have to be settled in the U.S. Congress and the president's office and the Supreme Court will have to put its good housekeeping stamp of approval on that. Kinky won't have a thing to do with it. In short is is irrelevant.

[RichardW]

If he is half as good as Ventura we'll be far better off than what we have now.

[Hydroshock]

Tx should be so lucky as to have a Jesse Ventura.

[AmishDude]

But he won't. No amount of wishing will make it so.

[TexKat]

bookmark

[Hydroshock]

We shall see, Perry is sinking slowly in the polls and Kinky is rising.

[ricer1]

Not a bad idea...

I'll have to revisit this trail on November 8th (or 9th, or 10th...).

[Dog Gone]

Is it irrelevant to the type of judge he would appoint?

[deport]

James Werner....... 2.6%...... This Zogby poll has Hutchison at 47.8% whereby Rasmussen has her at 61% in his August poll. I doubt Zogby on that one for sure.

Here's the real catch about the Zogby online interactive poll

"Zogby Interactive of Utica, N.Y. has assembled a database of individuals who have registered to take part in online polls through solicitations on the company's Web site as well as other Web sites that span the political spectrum."

Thus you may or may not get true results as those signing up tend to be more political in nature than those that go vote but don't follow politics.

[AmishDude]

Ah, Jesse Ventura supporters I see. Well, now we know where you stand:

• Garrison Keillor: Arnold isn't Jesse Ventura — nor is he much of a Republican (unhinged uber-lib Keillor loves Jesse)
• Ventura says results of Senate election will likely be challenged (Jesse Sore-Losermans Norm Coleman's election)
• Ventura complains wife barred from his Cuba trip
• Governor's Office: Ventura may have Chosen Links Over Polls. [Golfed, didn't vote]
• Ahead of Cuba visit, Jesse Ventura says he won't be puppet of Castro (useful idiot is enough)
• Gov. Ventura Demands Apology From Reich
• Ventura wields veto pen on budget bill (questions patriotism of foes)
• Ventura discloses he never saw combat Ventura Says He'll Talk To Local Media No MoreXFL hopes to draw viewers with shock, mayhem and Ventura Jesse Ventura writing children's book Ventura: Change Constitution; Let Clinton Serve Another Term... VENTURA SPENDS THE NIGHT IN THE WHITE HOUSE [Clinton admin, Lincoln bedroom, 1 month before 2000 election]
• Gore, Ventura Engage in Minnesota Love Fest
• Gov. Ventura To Appear on Soap Opera
• Newsweek: Ventura Says He Could 'Walk in and Steal' Presidential Election
• Ventura again declines to issue Prayer Day proclamation
• Ventura Calls on McCain to Run As an Independent [April 2000]

This doesn't begin to measure the liberalism and complete buffoonery of the Ventura administration.

Remember his big MSNBC show? Neither does anybody else, Minnesotans by use of drugs.

[Hydroshock]

So. He and Kinky would still beat Perry.

[deport]

You maybe thinking of the Tarrance Group and Lake Snell Perry and Associates which are the two groups that do the Battle ground poll. The Battleground poll was initiated back in 1991.

Scott Rasmussen blew the 2000 election badly missing by some 9% or so. He shut his operation down and revamped. I think he still had problems in 02 but did well in 04 and 06. I'm not sure that Scott Rasmussen was ever with the Battleground group, if so only as a staff worker. Ed Goeas [Tarrance Group] and Celinda Lake [Lake Snell Perry] are the two prominent pollsters associate with Battleground.

Here are the final polls for 2000:
http://www.ncpp.org/poll_perform.htm

[AmishDude]

So?

Well, I guess if you wish that "maverick political clown" isn't going to govern as a liberal, then he won't. Until he does.

[Hydroshock]

And how will that be differnet from a rino governor behaving liberal like he does.

[deport]

You remember tlbshow? Well some of these are about in the same league, imo. Also kinda a semblance of the 2000 race with Buchanan, Keyes, etc. Hell if'n FR had been the barometer or gauge of the election Keyes would have won going away and Buchanan would have been a close 2nd. That is why I don't put any credence in anything these advocates promote. They are entertaining at times though.