North Korea 'determined to carry out underground test'

Russian diplomats believe it is now "highly probable" that North Korea will officially join the nuclear club by carrying out its first underground test of an atomic device.

Kim Jong Il, the North Korean leader, is said to have made clear his intention to explode a device during recent talks with Russian and Chinese officials in Pyongyang.

Although he was pressed to resume six-party talks over his nuclear programme, the Russians concluded that he was serious in his desire to demonstrate that his scientists have successfully built a nuclear weapon.

Their fears appear to bolster American suspicions that a test is being prepared, after intelligence reports last month of unusual vehicle movements in the area believed to be the test site. Any such test would be an escalation of tension in the region and would raise the stakes in the stand-off with the United States.

During talks at the Russian and Chinese embassies, Kim was warned that such a move would alienate even Moscow and Beijing – regarded as North Korea's closest friends – who were infuriated by the country's long-range missile tests earlier this summer.

"If North Korea conducts an underground nuclear test, it will face severe punishment," said one Russian diplomat.

He said Kim Jong Il was "irritated" by financial sanctions imposed last year by the US, including the blocking of bank accounts abroad believed to have been used for money laundering and other illegal deals, including arms and drugs trading.

Kim is said to have threatened "to use all necessary means" – including further development of the nuclear deterrent – to make Washington change its position. Six-party talks with China, America, South Korea, Japan and Russia, aimed at persuading Kim to abandon his nuclear ambitions were suspended last November.

In Washington, the State Department's spokesman, Sean McCormack, said last week that a North Korean nuclear test would be "a deeply provocative act".

Kim disappeared from the public eye the day before large scale missile tests on July 5, prompting speculation that he had gone into hiding in case there was a military response to the tests.

A book by the North Korean leader's former sushi chef, Kenji Fujimoto, says that Kim has had a bunker built near Pyongyang to shelter from a nuclear attack.

September 13, 2004 - 07:31 ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: It's just about half past the hour now on this AMERICAN MORNING.
North Korea says a massive cloud picked up in satellite images last week was actually caused by a demolition project. Does that explanation wash, though? We're going to ask a former member of the Defense Department what he believes really went on there.

...

O'BRIEN: A cloud of suspicion hangs over North Korea after a mysterious explosion last week. The blast sent a plume of smoke more than two miles wide into the air. The Bush administration says so far there is no evidence it was nuclear.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CONDOLEEZZA RICE, NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR: There are all kinds of reports and there are all kinds of assessments that are going on. Maybe it was a fire of some kind, a forest fire of some kind. But we don't believe at this point that it was a nuclear event.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

O'BRIEN: (AUDIO GAP) says the explosion was part of a hydroelectric demolition project.

Joining us from Washington to talk about this global concern, Peter Brookes is with The Heritage Foundation.

Mr. Brookes, it's good to have you with us.

PETER BROOKES, THE HERITAGE FOUNDATION: Good morning.

O'BRIEN: What's your best take on it? Was it a nuclear explosion?

BROOKES: It's very unlikely. First of all, if you saw this sort of cloud, the North Koreans probably would be irradiating themselves, because they would have done it above ground. Most nuclear experiments today are done below ground, well below ground. And, in fact, the hole is sealed. They put down instruments to see if the nuclear explosion happened the way they expected it to, wanted it to.

But we don't -- people generally don't do above-ground testing, because of the possibility of radiation fallout.

O'BRIEN: All right. Well, there was a lot of concern, because it did happen to fall on the anniversary of the founding of the regime, that perhaps a message was being sent. There also were some reports that there was some suspicious activity that was tracked by satellite capability leading up to that explosion. How do you jive all that?

BROOKES: You're absolutely right. In fact, August 9 is their National Day. And they often do something to remind everybody that they're still around. I mean, they're the only country, I think, in the world today that has a decreasing population because of the starvation. And they are small. They don't have a very strong card. But the strong card they do have is their military power.

So, they often do something politically provocative to remind people on August 9 that they should be paid attention to. But the fact is...

O'BRIEN: Yes, and I think you mean September 9, right?

BROOKES: I'm sorry, September 9.

O'BRIEN: OK. I'm sorry. I didn't mean to interrupt you. Go ahead.

BROOKES: No, and the other thing that's very important, Miles, is that the intelligence that we've received about suspicious nuclear activity, about the possibility of workups for a test, is in a different location than we saw this dust cloud. So that's another very significant thing. They are not in the same place.

We will over the next couple of days be able to determine. We'll have aircraft up there. They will be sniffing the air, not over North Korea but in the surrounding areas, depending which the way the wind is blowing to see if there is any nuclear activity within that cloud.

We also use seismic measurement activities or instrumentation in South Korea to see if there's a large seismic event. And so far, we haven't seen that. So, we'll have to see.

I mean, also the other thing is that there is some large missile facilities up in that part of the country, North Korean missile facilities. And it's always a possibility that perhaps an ammo dump went up or there was a missile -- you know, some sort of missile explosion as well during some testing.

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