Posted on 09/11/2006 3:37:26 PM PDT by frogjerk
By RANDOLPH E. SCHMID, AP Science Writer 57 minutes ago
WASHINGTON - Most of the increase in ocean temperature that feeds more intense hurricanes is a result of human-induced global warming, says a study that one researcher says "closes the loop" between climate change and powerful storms like Katrina. ADVERTISEMENT
A series of studies over the past year or so have shown an increase in the power of hurricanes in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, a strengthening that storm experts say is tied to rising sea-surface temperatures.
And most of that temperature increase can be blamed on global warming caused by human activities such as automobile and industrial pollution, scientists report in Wednesday's issue of Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
"The work that we've done kind of closes the loop here," said Tom Wigley of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., a co-author of the paper.
"The important conclusion is that the observed (sea-surface temperature) increases in these hurricane breeding grounds cannot be explained by natural processes alone," said Wigley. "The best explanation for these changes has to include a large human influence."
Benjamin Santer of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, Calif., plus Wigley and their team studied the relationship of climate and hurricanes using 22 different climate models at 15 institutions around the world.
Climate models are complex sets of mathematical equations that high-speed computers use to simulate weather and climate and to forecast changes. The researchers used them to run 80 different simulations analyzing the response of sea-surface temperatures to a variety of factors and then compared the results from the independent models.
While previous studies have looked at entire oceans, this work focused on the smaller areas of the Atlantic and Pacific where tropical storms form.
This study builds a connection between the theoretical foundation of global warming and changes that are being observed in those areas where hurricanes are born, said Robert Corell of the American Meteorological Society, who moderated a briefing on the work.
While they reported the connection between rising ocean temperatures and increasing storm power, the researchers declined to predict future changes.
Asked if they would recommend changes in public policy, Greg Holland of the National Center for Atmospheric Research said, "It is important to note that we're not policymakers. Our role is to present the best possible conclusions from the available evidence."
Kerry Emanuel, a hurricane expert at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, added that regardless of global warming, the United States does need to address problems in dealing with hurricanes ranging from insurance to disaster response.
Not so sure of the findings was William M. Gray of Colorado State University, a longtime hurricane expert who issues forecasts each year of the expected number of storms.
Gray said the models do not deal with all necessary ocean processes and called the report "a desperate attempt to keep the bandwagon going. They've kept it going with global warming and now they want to keep it going with hurricanes."
"I am very sure over the test of time it will not hold up," said Gray, who was not part of the research team.
Philip Klotzbach, also of Colorado State, said that "sea-surface temperatures have certainly warmed over the past century, and that there is probably a human-induced component.
"To me, the big challenge is still determining what percentage is natural and what percentage is caused by humans. This paper sheds some light on that question; however, there is still a considerable amount of uncertainty," he said.
Christopher Landsea, a meteorologist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Hurricane Research Division in Miami, praised the new paper as very well thought out.
But, he said, while the paper discusses sea-surface temperature increases, it does not address the sensitivity of hurricanes to ocean temperature changes or questions about hurricane records in prior years.
While studies by Emanuel in Nature and Peter J. Webster of the Georgia Institute of Technology in Science reported increases in the most powerful storms, Klotzbach challenged those findings in Geophysical Research Letters, reporting only a small increase and suggesting that may be due to improved observation technology.
Santer's research was funded by the Department of Energy.
It's almost mid-September and I still have cheese nips and peanut butter.
that must be why we've had a record number of hurricanes and F5's this year compared to last..(eyeroll)
The left roots for terrorist attacks, hurricanes, tsunamis, and any other natural disaster just to get back in power...Absolutely sickening.
They always seem to have an incredible sense of timing with these things, don't they?
Another study finds that rednecks fish and drink beer during the summer months....... (Oy vey!)
It is hot in the summer, and cold in the winter.
Gray said the models do not deal with all necessary ocean processes and called the report "a desperate attempt to keep the bandwagon going. They've kept it going with global warming and now they want to keep it going with hurricanes."
"I am very sure over the test of time it will not hold up," said Gray, who was not part of the research team.
It's these kinds of statements that reduce the veracity of the global warming agenda crowd to sheer folly.
More junk statements to back up junk science claims.
"using 22 different climate models at 15 institutions around the world."
They developed a super-climate model from 22 other cherry picked ones. What is that specious bit science called, meta-statistics?
Another study found that 25% of each year's crime happened during the months of June, July and August.
while there's a lull in the action, I put up a thread earlier today regarding 9/12/01..this is directly to the link, not the thread..I'd even forgotten this had happened..
http://time.blogs.com/daily_dish/2006/09/today.html
had klintoon done what needed to be done, we wouldn't be waiting for Part II, and this wouldn't have happened..
Like Thunderstorm Ernesto?
sorry y'all, wrong thread..
I read somewhere pollution actually cooled things down by putting more dust and dirt in the air.
Global warming wouldn't cause more hurricanes or more intense hurricanes, but rather, strong storms would be forming in parts of the basin where you wouldn't see storms, like off the coast of New York. So far, all major hurricanes have formed off the Gulf Coast or they've been Cape Verde's.
Also of note, warmer oceans means more wind shear for the Atlantic, which means less hurricanes, not more. Didn't we have 3 hyperactive seasons in a row from 2003-2005?
Who the hell wants to rob someone when it's cold outside lol ;)
What about all the emissions into the atmosphere from war activities? There has been a lot of shooting and bombs going off. All that shooting and killing has got to be reaping the whirlwind. Better ban war.
Next we better look at carbonated soft drinks and passing gas. That includes the hot air of politicians and quacks.
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