Hurricane Florence update

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200606.disc.html#a_topad | NHC Via Wunderground

[Fawn]

You're right. they posted this about it: Able reached its peak of 100 mph winds.
On that map it looks like it hit at a cat 5.... .

[mhking]

More of the same....

[onthedancefloort]

That convection flare-up that would appear to be the center I don't think is. Indeed if you go to Colorado U's site and look at there Sat picture, that convection is now heading North North Eastward already.

This is a great Satellite sequence, first time I used it. The only issue is you can not direct link it. So try this;

Click on this link, then use the drop down menu to locate Channel 4 thermal Infrared, then click in the water vapor box in the lower right hand corner.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html


It would be my impression that the center is still moving westward, but it also maybe a day or so before we can see what happens with all the other waves around it. Perhaps, they combine or they all die?

-t

[uncbob]

What is the name of this thing

Gotta have a name

[varina davis]

It will be Florence

[Fawn]

This one:

[onthedancefloort]

Fawn,

Yes that One!

Did you look at the Loop?

-t

[RDTF]

crap!

[Dog Gone]

Not much doubt this will develop. Right now it doesn't look like a GOM threat, but it's way too early to predict the track. Ernesto cured me of that.

[Guenevere]

Should I be worried?...(east coast of Florida)

[Fawn]

Yes...but I can't tell what is future or later....??

[onthedancefloort]

True enough, you can slow down the frame sequence to get a better idea of which is the last.

-t

[Hatteras]

"Should I be worried?"

That depends....Do you have teenagers? ;-)

[Fawn]

Thanks for the link....I'm going to be checking this site as the days go by. :)

[nwctwx]

Should I be worried?...(east coast of Florida)

Not yet. The position of the storm and the short term movement point to something that may not affect the U.S. Given the difficulty in pinpointing storm location 5 days+ out, it would be tough to say that this will threaten the east coast at this point. It is too quick to say it won't make it though, especially given the fact that a seasonal trend towards east coast threats has become apparent at this point.

I'd say the best course of action is to check in on it once or twice a day until there is a better idea of track/intensity.

[NautiNurse]

Waaaay out in the Central Atlantic, TD #6 has developed, with plans to make a name for itself.

On/Off Hurricane Ping list, mash ---> .

[Fawn]

Go from image 212-213 on that first map .....something doesn't seem right....that's an awful huge leap.

[Fawn]

I see why you think it's going north. Notice between those two frames...that the longitude-lattitude lines ALSO jump up the screen giving the impression that the storm has moved. It actually has not moved north at all. Here is frame 112:

And here is the very next frame. Look at lattitude #15

[2nd Amendment]

Looks like Bush/Cheney have fired up their hurricane machine. . probably have the dynamite already strapped on the trained dolphins!

[nwctwx]

Care to make a long range tracking forecast? Wondering if it'll threaten land before it recurves.

As I said in post #75, it's probably a little too early to get very worked up about it. Historic odds of this affecting the U.S. in any meaningful way are somewhat low.

That said, if I had to make an early call (which I shouldn't after Ernesto), I would say there is a pretty good shot that this will at the very least threaten to strike the U.S. coast.

If indeed it does threaten the coast, it is likely to be a big story maker. Conditions are going to be rather favorable this go around for a decent size storm.

Some of my early favorite "large storm" comparisons are Hugo, Floyd, and Isabel. They all traveled in a similar area early on, and all occurred during somewhat similar weather patterns (strong high to the north, weakeness in the ridge in the SE). Andrew could also possibly be used as a comparison, but I don't believe this will be a similar storm based on this season's trends.