Posted on 09/03/2006 1:44:19 PM PDT by nwctwx
Hey, Ernesto was just as persnickity.
Hit & run post... it looks to me on the enhanced photos (IR,cloud tops) that there is a hard north turn now (last 1-2hrs)
This may simply be a correction to the southerly jog it took yesterday, it may be a really abrupt northerly change of direction, or it may simply be signaling a change of curvature... it really looks abrupt north now, though.
This is the best data available at this time concerning the environment that Florence lives in. More recent soundings than the ones shown are not available on account of cloudiness at the various locations. And while the soundings are fairly crude, any data is better than no data whatsoever. I have issues with how the parcel lapse rate is being determined (this has a direct influence on CAPE and CINH). I do not understand a parcel lapse rate that has zigs in it. Nor am I comfortable with the parcel's starting point. You can say that I have issues. I won't deny it either. I took a serious hard look at what they were doing and I threw up my hands. A great many of the people responsible for this stuff have some serious number of letters after their names. I don't.
That don't mean that I have to like it, nor do I. And I don't.
My curt digression above notwithstanding, the above soundings are useful - despite their crude resolution compared to actual rawindsonde obs - in that one can get a fair idea about the fuel that Florence is swimming in. This fuel absolutely must be in the lower 1km.
To me it looks like Florence is getting some fuel, but every once in a while she gets "vapor locked". LOL.
Believe me when I say that there are zigs in the parcel lapse rates contained in almost 3/4 MB of soundings I've obtained for about 6-7 differing locations over the course of the last three days. Suffice it to say that I've never seen a parcel lapse rate that shows an inversion.
Without any other decent and plausible reason, I'd have to surmise that some sort of "instaneous" thermodynamics is being applied to the parcel path in either a quasi-adiabatic, or adiabatic fashion at each point in its travel. Computers are wonderful things, eh?
In addition to the shear/dry air/gremlins that Flo is encountering, it looks once again like the circulation is being stretched out E-W. I don't think I will be awake for the 11 pm update, but if someone is, please post the forecast windspeed for me.
I will say this - on the last few infrared images, Flo is getting her shiite together and has some major-league outflow setting up.
Personally, I think the goddess of hurricanes is tired after the last two years.
I'm here finally. I'll put the 11PM here.
Looked at the intensity and track models.
They're zeroed in on a nasty hit to Bermuda. They're all pretty much showing just a bit west of there. As far as intensity, they're coming in at approximately mid-high Cat.1.
Soon, they'll be pretty accurate.
The model runs in the afternoon were all initialized with intensity at least 10kts too high, so they were a bust. NHC could not have paid much attention to them, or the intensity figures they gave would have been much higher. I'm glad they seemed to have used their brains a bit for that forecast, at least.
000
WTNT41 KNHC 100244
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 09 2006
SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT FLORENCE IS POSSIBLY STRENGTHENING
TONIGHT. A ROUND CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FORMED OVER THE APPARENT
CENTER... AND EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW THE POSSIBLE FORMATION
OF AN EYE. HOWEVER... RECENTLY THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME
ELONGATED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED. IN
ADDITION...A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 2238 UTC DID NOT SHOW ANY WIND SPEEDS
GREATER THAN 50 TO 55 KT. ALTHOUGH DVORAK SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS SUPPORT HURRICANE INTENSITY... THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 55 KT. FLORENCE HAS FOOLED US BEFORE AND
IT IS BEST TO WAIT FOR AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
THAT WILL BE IN THE AREA IN A COUPLE OF HOURS.
THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS ALMOST THE SAME AS BEFORE...
330/11... ALTHOUGH A SHORT-TERM MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER. TRACK
MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A PATH NEAR OR JUST TO THE WEST OF
BERMUDA ON MONDAY. THEREAFTER... SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW
FLORENCE INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE PULLED A LITTLE
MORE TO THE LEFT... AS IT IS SOMEWHAT CAPTURED BY THE UPPER-TROUGH.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE
FIRST DAY OR SO... THEN SHIFTED WESTWARD CLOSER TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.
ALL SIGNS POINT TO INTENSIFICATION OF FLORENCE...AND IN FACT THIS
INTENSIFICATION COULD BE RAPID. THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION
INDEX INDICATES NEARLY A 50% CHANCE OF A 25 KT INCREASE IN
INTENSITY IN NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH IT INDICATED ALMOST THE SAME
PROBABILITIES 24 HOURS AGO. FLORENCE HAS BEEN QUITE STUBBORN AND
HAS REFUSED... SO FAR... TO INTENSIFY AS MUCH AS ALMOST ALL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOUT
THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT WITH SOME REDUCTION BEYOND 36
HOURS AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS A HIGHER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE
SYSTEM COULD PEAK A LITTLE STRONGER THAN SHOWN BELOW IN BETWEEN THE
36 AND 48 HOUR TIME PERIODS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/0300Z 26.6N 64.9W 55 KT
12HR VT 10/1200Z 27.9N 65.6W 65 KT
24HR VT 11/0000Z 29.8N 65.9W 75 KT
36HR VT 11/1200Z 31.8N 65.4W 85 KT...NEAR BERMUDA
48HR VT 12/0000Z 34.4N 64.2W 85 KT
72HR VT 13/0000Z 40.0N 60.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 14/0000Z 46.0N 53.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 15/0000Z 49.0N 42.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB
What an understatement! In fact, the only intensity models that have given the correct answers thus far are the LEAST trusted of the models! It is yet to be seen whether SHIPS can finally come through, but it has not done well at all in 2006.
The problem is, that these models can't be easily tweaked in the middle of the season. They're so complex that it is pretty much either accept them whole hog or totally ignore them, it seems. They were pretty much "built" in the mid 90s, and changing them is going to be a heck of a process.
No VORTEX data yet - none expected until after midnight EDT. Hurricane Hunter have taken off by now, but not transmitting data yet. I'm turning in now, expecting to see a storm in the morning that has made a definite turn north, and possibly even northeast.
I don't know. I couldn't tell a filligree from a scalloped. My bad.
latest satellite infrared imagery indicates that Florence has strengthened during the early morning hours. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft surveyed Florence and measured an 84 kt maximum flight level wind in the northeast quadrant at 0536z. This wind equates to approximately 67 kt at the surface. At that time the central pressure was 981 mb. On the next pass...the eye sonde minimum pressure was 978 mb with 18 kt surface winds...and the central pressure is now estimated to be 976 mb. Over the last 12 hours...the pressure has fallen about 17 mb. Florence is expected to continue to strengthen for the next 24 hours or so before it encounters increasing shear and cooler SSTs. By 72 hours... Florence should become extratropical as it merges with a short-wave in the westerlies.
The initial motion is 330/13. The forecast track reasoning remains unchanged. Florence is now nearing the western extent of the subtropical ridge and is expected to turn toward the north later today. The official track forecast is a blend of the GFS... UKMET...and GFDL solutions...and is shifted slightly to the west of the previous track.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 10/0900z 27.7n 65.7w 70 kt
12hr VT 10/1800z 29.0n 65.9w 80 kt
24hr VT 11/0600z 31.0n 66.0w 95 kt
36hr VT 11/1800z 33.5n 65.0w 90 kt
48hr VT 12/0600z 36.4n 63.2w 80 kt
72hr VT 13/0600z 42.5n 56.0w 65 kt...extratropical
96hr VT 14/0600z 47.0n 49.0w 60 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 15/0600z 50.0n 37.0w 50 kt...extratropical
$$
forecaster Mainelli/Franklin
Looks like Flo took a gulp of dry air from the south this morning, and it also seems the trough to the NW might be tugging on the northern section of the convection. 'Tis a shame, the forecasters were sooo happy that Flo was starting to behave normally, and now here she up and burps again.
Eye is now clearly present on sat photos.
Florence strengthens into hurricane
HAMILTON, Bermuda - Florence intensified into the second hurricane of the Atlantic season Sunday as it headed for Bermuda, where residents installed storm shutters and hauled their yachts onto beaches.
Florence was expected to reach the tiny British territory Monday, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami. But was too early to tell whether it will make a direct hit.
The storm was a Category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 80 mph with higher gusts. Florence was expected to become a Category 2 hurricane as it passes Bermuda, the hurricane center said.
The storm was expected to veer away from the U.S. coast as it turns north toward Bermuda, but forecasters said its large size could also create high surf and rip currents along parts of the eastern seaboard.
"Those waves will affect a good portion of the U.S. East Coast from basically Florida all the way up to the Cape Cod area" starting Sunday through the early part of next week, hurricane specialist Stacy Stewart said. "When those large swells come rolling in to the coastline they tend to produce dangerous and potentially deadly rip currents."
Bermuda issued a hurricane warning. The government urged its 65,000 residents to take precautions and volunteers were mobilized. The hurricane center said tropical storm force winds could hit the North Atlantic Island by Sunday afternoon.
"We are asking residents to please stay home. We are urging the public's cooperation so that emergency vehicles will have free passage on the roads," Derrick Burgess, minister of public safety, said at a news conference. "Also, we are discouraging the public from sightseeing as this puts everyone at risk."
He also encouraged the public to stock up on hurricane supplies and secure their homes, lawn furniture and any other loose items which could be affected by high winds.
At 8 a.m. EDT, the center of the hurricane was about 305 miles south-southwest of Bermuda and was moving toward the north-northwest near 15 mph.
The hurricane center said Bermuda was expected to get 5 to 8 inches of rain, with up to 10 inches possible in some areas.
In boatyards and marinas in Bermuda — a wealthy island chain 640 miles east of the U.S. coast — boat owners dragged their yachts onto beaches or secured their moorings.
At Pitts Bay marina, Bermudian Alan Hughes moved his 17-foot Boston Whaler away from the dock wall and tied it down.
"We are obviously concerned and cautious. It will be a tidal issue, with up to five or six foot tidal swells," he said.
At the Fairmont Hamilton Princess, the hotel distributed a disaster plan — which included provisions for evacuation — and told guests that patio furniture would be removed from their rooms.
Roy Riggio, a 72-year-old volunteer counselor with Medicare from New Canaan, Conn., said he and his wife, Barbara, arrived in Bermuda on Friday.
As other guests at the Fairmont were leaving, Riggio said he didn't believe the hurricane would deter him and his wife and he wanted a "window seat" at the hotel's restaurant on Sunday night to watch the storm.
"If not, I'm going to take pictures from my room — I have a room up at the top of the hotel — and I want to get some photos. I'm not a glutton for punishment, but it's exciting," he said.
Authorities said they were closing the island's only airport, Bermuda International Airport. Flights from New York and Miami scheduled to arrive late Saturday have been canceled.
Ferries stopped running Saturday afternoon and bus service was to end Sunday at 1 p.m.. Authorities have opened a shelter in the island's center, and the public utility has warned there may be power outages due to the high winds.
Public schools and government offices will be closed Monday.
Acting Police Commissioner Roseanda Young said arrangements have been made for tourists to leave after the airport shuts down, with commercial airlines and private jets helping out.
"All tourists have been given the opportunity to leave. Those still here have chosen to stay," she said.
Large ocean swells were affecting Bermuda and the northern coasts of the Caribbean islands, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, the hurricane center said.
Bermuda requires newly built houses to withstand sustained winds of 110 mph. It also has a sturdy infrastructure with many of its power and phone lines underground.
Hurricane Fabian killed four people when it struck in 2003 as the strongest storm to hit Bermuda in 50 years. Fabian, a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds, tore the roofs off several homes and left many of Bermuda's famed golf courses in ruins.
Florence follows on the heels of Tropical Storm Ernesto, which was briefly the season's first hurricane before weakening and drenching the East Coast last week. The storm was blamed for nine deaths in the United States and two in Haiti.
... High rip current threat today...
Long period easterly swells associated with Tropical Storm Florence will begin to impact the coast today. These swells... in combination with moderate onshore winds and a high lunar tide cycle will bring an increased potential for life threatening rip currents along the beaches. The most likely time for rip currents to occur are a couple hours either side of low tide.
On/Off Hurricane Ping list, mash ---> 
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