What an understatement! In fact, the only intensity models that have given the correct answers thus far are the LEAST trusted of the models! It is yet to be seen whether SHIPS can finally come through, but it has not done well at all in 2006.
The problem is, that these models can't be easily tweaked in the middle of the season. They're so complex that it is pretty much either accept them whole hog or totally ignore them, it seems. They were pretty much "built" in the mid 90s, and changing them is going to be a heck of a process.
No VORTEX data yet - none expected until after midnight EDT. Hurricane Hunter have taken off by now, but not transmitting data yet. I'm turning in now, expecting to see a storm in the morning that has made a definite turn north, and possibly even northeast.