latest satellite infrared imagery indicates that Florence has strengthened during the early morning hours. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft surveyed Florence and measured an 84 kt maximum flight level wind in the northeast quadrant at 0536z. This wind equates to approximately 67 kt at the surface. At that time the central pressure was 981 mb. On the next pass...the eye sonde minimum pressure was 978 mb with 18 kt surface winds...and the central pressure is now estimated to be 976 mb. Over the last 12 hours...the pressure has fallen about 17 mb. Florence is expected to continue to strengthen for the next 24 hours or so before it encounters increasing shear and cooler SSTs. By 72 hours... Florence should become extratropical as it merges with a short-wave in the westerlies.
The initial motion is 330/13. The forecast track reasoning remains unchanged. Florence is now nearing the western extent of the subtropical ridge and is expected to turn toward the north later today. The official track forecast is a blend of the GFS... UKMET...and GFDL solutions...and is shifted slightly to the west of the previous track.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 10/0900z 27.7n 65.7w 70 kt
12hr VT 10/1800z 29.0n 65.9w 80 kt
24hr VT 11/0600z 31.0n 66.0w 95 kt
36hr VT 11/1800z 33.5n 65.0w 90 kt
48hr VT 12/0600z 36.4n 63.2w 80 kt
72hr VT 13/0600z 42.5n 56.0w 65 kt...extratropical
96hr VT 14/0600z 47.0n 49.0w 60 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 15/0600z 50.0n 37.0w 50 kt...extratropical
$$
forecaster Mainelli/Franklin
