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Hurricane Florence update
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200606.disc.html#a_topad
| NHC Via Wunderground
Posted on 09/03/2006 1:44:19 PM PDT by nwctwx
![](http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at200606_5day.gif)
TOPICS: Extended News
KEYWORDS: florence; hurricaneseason2006; tropical; weather
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To: dirtboy
Thanks for your insight.
Can you explain the "dry air" thingy? I assume it is dry air at lower levels?
181
posted on
09/04/2006 1:00:08 PM PDT
by
MonroeDNA
(Crist!!! Next Governor of Florida!)
To: dirtboy
182
posted on
09/04/2006 1:02:15 PM PDT
by
brothers4thID
(Being lectured by Ted Kennedy on ethics is not unlike being lectured on dating protocol by Ted Bundy)
To: Dutchgirl; floriduh voter; sweetliberty; neverdem; 2Fro
Quick!
Evacuate Miami!
(No WAIT! ...
It's Bush's fault: Rowe WANTS this hurricane coming through FL now because the primary is coming up and we MUST evacuate and kill as many innocent democrat voters in South FL as possible!
183
posted on
09/04/2006 1:06:22 PM PDT
by
Robert A Cook PE
(I can only donate monthly, but Hillary's ABBCNNBCBS continue to lie every day!)
To: dirtboy
Notice the names back up your relationship:
All are "H", "F", and "G" names for Sept storms. Implies those years that had storms in this area had relatively few storms as well.
184
posted on
09/04/2006 1:10:12 PM PDT
by
Robert A Cook PE
(I can only donate monthly, but Hillary's ABBCNNBCBS continue to lie every day!)
To: All
185
posted on
09/04/2006 1:15:29 PM PDT
by
onthedancefloort
(And We said thereafter to the Children of Israel, "Dwell securely in the land (of promise)": 17-104)
To: Robert A. Cook, PE
I think the peak of Hurricane Season in the Atlantic is 10 September.
186
posted on
09/04/2006 1:31:20 PM PDT
by
Recovering_Democrat
(I am SO glad to no longer be associated with the party of "dependence on government"!)
To: Dog Gone
Remember this:
Bastardi=MOONBAT
187
posted on
09/04/2006 1:37:32 PM PDT
by
shield
(A wise man's heart is at his RIGHT hand; but a fool's heart at his LEFT. Ecc 10:2)
To: All
Tropical Storm Public Advisory
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 04, 2006
...Depression a little disorganized...
at 500 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Depression Six was
estimated near latitude 16.9 north...longitude 43.8 west or about
1165 miles...1875 km...east of the Lesser Antilles.
The depression is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24
hours.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb...29.68 inches.
Repeating the 500 PM EDT position...16.9 N...43.8 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...35 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1005 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
1100 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Blake/Franklin
188
posted on
09/04/2006 1:54:52 PM PDT
by
abb
(The Dinosaur Media: A One-Way Medium in a Two-Way World)
To: onthedancefloort
All I know is that the NHC is forecasting this a tropical storm by tomorrow. I'd guess by late this evening.
They're also projecting it to become a weak hurricane not long after that.
Okay, now they have my attention.
Right now it looks too far north to sneak into the Gulf and if you forced me to guess, I'd say it skirts the east coast without ever touching US soil. But a prediction this far out is close to worthless.
There's still plenty of time to either panic or scoff at this one. Enough time to do both, actually.
To: Dog Gone
FWIW, Dog, that latest advisory says little strengthening in the next 24 hours. Which is good news...
190
posted on
09/04/2006 2:12:20 PM PDT
by
abb
(The Dinosaur Media: A One-Way Medium in a Two-Way World)
To: Dog Gone
At this point the game is to find the circulation, truthfully I do not see it where they are speculating.
I honestly think it is forming southwest of there. If you look at the visible loop my bet would be where I posted earlier...right around 14n and 47 west.
Now if it is down that far, it does indeed bring the coast in to much more climatological friendly zone.
-t
191
posted on
09/04/2006 2:13:02 PM PDT
by
onthedancefloort
(And We said thereafter to the Children of Israel, "Dwell securely in the land (of promise)": 17-104)
To: onthedancefloort
I guess I have nothing to do this labor day evening...lol
Anyways check out this Water Vapor Loop. The prettiest one I ever seen!
http://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/opdb/aviation/loops/realtime/atlwv_loope.html
On a more serious note, you can see a few things on these frames:
1. Check-out the corridor of weakness that is now present. It looks like a bowling alley or a wide funnel heading right in the mid-atlantic.
2. Yesterday's circulation with the TD is almost nonexistent.
3. That wave just south of Puerto Rico is looking pretty good.
-t
192
posted on
09/04/2006 2:39:17 PM PDT
by
onthedancefloort
(And We said thereafter to the Children of Israel, "Dwell securely in the land (of promise)": 17-104)
To: abb
Yeah, it doesn't look that great right now and it still has to fight through a bunch of dry air to get to a place where we might expect it to really take off.
I think I take my prediction back of a possible TS before midnight tonight.
It's definitely got the circulation, but it's in a pretty hostile environment.
I don't think it's going to dissipate. 35 mph winds are good evidence that most of the ingredients are there.
Actually, we'd be far better off if it bombed into a big storm right now. Big powerful storms want to make that right hand recurvature as quickly as possible. Little dinky ones are more content to move west.
To: onthedancefloort
3. That wave just south of Puerto Rico is looking pretty good.I was noticing that one today as well. That isn't the invest from three days ago, that one fizzled and died. But as whacky as this hurricane season has been to date, we could see storm formation in the Eastern Caribbean, which is very unusual.
194
posted on
09/04/2006 3:14:10 PM PDT
by
dirtboy
(This tagline has been photoshopped)
To: onthedancefloort
That is SWEET. I see a lot of upper-level energy and pockets of dry air all over the Atlantic basin. All kinds of leetle landmines for tropical systems to encounter.
195
posted on
09/04/2006 3:16:09 PM PDT
by
dirtboy
(This tagline has been photoshopped)
To: abb
...Depression a little disorganized... That's an understatement.
196
posted on
09/04/2006 3:16:51 PM PDT
by
dirtboy
(This tagline has been photoshopped)
To: dirtboy
My thoughts exactly....but I kept staring at that bowling alley...lol!
I got confused with all the Invests and there numbers. If that was a separate wave underneath the TD they are now one, and I think the lower wave is going to win out and finally produce the low pressure.
What do you think of that possibility?
-t
197
posted on
09/04/2006 3:22:27 PM PDT
by
onthedancefloort
(And We said thereafter to the Children of Israel, "Dwell securely in the land (of promise)": 17-104)
To: onthedancefloort
I go back to 1997. If any kind of el Nino is setting up (and there is debate over that), the storms can try and form all they want, but the upper-level prevailing el Nino winds are gonna blow any system either apart if closer to the US or to the NE if out in the mid-Atlantic.
Some of this is hopeful thinking on my part. But I also saw what happened to that Invest that was in the Antilles a couple of days ago. It got shredded from the SW.
198
posted on
09/04/2006 3:25:37 PM PDT
by
dirtboy
(This tagline has been photoshopped)
To: onthedancefloort
Seriously, look at what is happening to our current contestant. It is getting seriously Hoovered to the NNE. I know Joe Bastardi is predicting this will be hitting New Jersey as a Cat 11, but I sure don't see it. I see it getting maybe making at 45 mph tropical storm and then getting sucked to oblivion to the NE, just as storms did in the last el Nino season.
199
posted on
09/04/2006 3:28:23 PM PDT
by
dirtboy
(This tagline has been photoshopped)
To: dirtboy
Wasn't Andrew's year a El Nino?
-t
200
posted on
09/04/2006 3:33:17 PM PDT
by
onthedancefloort
(And We said thereafter to the Children of Israel, "Dwell securely in the land (of promise)": 17-104)
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