Hurricane Florence update

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200606.disc.html#a_topad | NHC Via Wunderground

[MonroeDNA]

Thanks for your insight.

Can you explain the "dry air" thingy? I assume it is dry air at lower levels?

[brothers4thID]

Change "F" to "Frackme!"

[Robert A Cook PE]

Quick!

Evacuate Miami!

(No WAIT! ...

It's Bush's fault: Rowe WANTS this hurricane coming through FL now because the primary is coming up and we MUST evacuate and kill as many innocent democrat voters in South FL as possible!

[Robert A Cook PE]

Notice the names back up your relationship:

All are "H", "F", and "G" names for Sept storms. Implies those years that had storms in this area had relatively few storms as well.

[onthedancefloort]

I think there may be a center forming way south of the estimate, take a look at the visible at about 47w 14n...interesting. If that circulation takes center stage, one can throw all the models out.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

-t

[Recovering_Democrat]

I think the peak of Hurricane Season in the Atlantic is 10 September.

[shield]

Remember this: Bastardi=MOONBAT

[abb]

Tropical Storm Public Advisory

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 04, 2006

...Depression a little disorganized...


at 500 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Depression Six was
estimated near latitude 16.9 north...longitude 43.8 west or about
1165 miles...1875 km...east of the Lesser Antilles.


The depression is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.


Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24
hours.


The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb...29.68 inches.


Repeating the 500 PM EDT position...16.9 N...43.8 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...35 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1005 mb.


The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
1100 PM EDT.


$$
Forecaster Blake/Franklin

[Dog Gone]

All I know is that the NHC is forecasting this a tropical storm by tomorrow. I'd guess by late this evening.

They're also projecting it to become a weak hurricane not long after that.

Okay, now they have my attention.

Right now it looks too far north to sneak into the Gulf and if you forced me to guess, I'd say it skirts the east coast without ever touching US soil. But a prediction this far out is close to worthless.

There's still plenty of time to either panic or scoff at this one. Enough time to do both, actually.

[abb]

FWIW, Dog, that latest advisory says little strengthening in the next 24 hours. Which is good news...

[onthedancefloort]

At this point the game is to find the circulation, truthfully I do not see it where they are speculating.

I honestly think it is forming southwest of there. If you look at the visible loop my bet would be where I posted earlier...right around 14n and 47 west.

Now if it is down that far, it does indeed bring the coast in to much more climatological friendly zone.

-t

[onthedancefloort]

I guess I have nothing to do this labor day evening...lol

Anyways check out this Water Vapor Loop. The prettiest one I ever seen!

http://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/opdb/aviation/loops/realtime/atlwv_loope.html

On a more serious note, you can see a few things on these frames:

1. Check-out the corridor of weakness that is now present. It looks like a bowling alley or a wide funnel heading right in the mid-atlantic.

2. Yesterday's circulation with the TD is almost nonexistent.

3. That wave just south of Puerto Rico is looking pretty good.

-t

[Dog Gone]

Yeah, it doesn't look that great right now and it still has to fight through a bunch of dry air to get to a place where we might expect it to really take off.

I think I take my prediction back of a possible TS before midnight tonight.

It's definitely got the circulation, but it's in a pretty hostile environment.

I don't think it's going to dissipate. 35 mph winds are good evidence that most of the ingredients are there.

Actually, we'd be far better off if it bombed into a big storm right now. Big powerful storms want to make that right hand recurvature as quickly as possible. Little dinky ones are more content to move west.

[dirtboy]

3. That wave just south of Puerto Rico is looking pretty good.

I was noticing that one today as well. That isn't the invest from three days ago, that one fizzled and died. But as whacky as this hurricane season has been to date, we could see storm formation in the Eastern Caribbean, which is very unusual.

[dirtboy]

That is SWEET. I see a lot of upper-level energy and pockets of dry air all over the Atlantic basin. All kinds of leetle landmines for tropical systems to encounter.

[dirtboy]

...Depression a little disorganized...

That's an understatement.

[onthedancefloort]

My thoughts exactly....but I kept staring at that bowling alley...lol!

I got confused with all the Invests and there numbers. If that was a separate wave underneath the TD they are now one, and I think the lower wave is going to win out and finally produce the low pressure.

What do you think of that possibility?

-t

[dirtboy]

I go back to 1997. If any kind of el Nino is setting up (and there is debate over that), the storms can try and form all they want, but the upper-level prevailing el Nino winds are gonna blow any system either apart if closer to the US or to the NE if out in the mid-Atlantic.

Some of this is hopeful thinking on my part. But I also saw what happened to that Invest that was in the Antilles a couple of days ago. It got shredded from the SW.

[dirtboy]

Seriously, look at what is happening to our current contestant. It is getting seriously Hoovered to the NNE. I know Joe Bastardi is predicting this will be hitting New Jersey as a Cat 11, but I sure don't see it. I see it getting maybe making at 45 mph tropical storm and then getting sucked to oblivion to the NE, just as storms did in the last el Nino season.

[onthedancefloort]

Wasn't Andrew's year a El Nino?

-t