I think there may be a center forming way south of the estimate, take a look at the visible at about 47w 14n...interesting. If that circulation takes center stage, one can throw all the models out.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html
-t
All I know is that the NHC is forecasting this a tropical storm by tomorrow. I'd guess by late this evening.
They're also projecting it to become a weak hurricane not long after that.
Okay, now they have my attention.
Right now it looks too far north to sneak into the Gulf and if you forced me to guess, I'd say it skirts the east coast without ever touching US soil. But a prediction this far out is close to worthless.
There's still plenty of time to either panic or scoff at this one. Enough time to do both, actually.