Posted on 09/03/2006 8:27:24 AM PDT by FairOpinion
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democrats enter the fall campaign with a clear edge in the high-stakes fight for control of the U.S. Congress, riding a wave of momentum that has them positioned to retake the U.S. House of Representatives and make significant gains in the Senate.
President George W. Bush's low approval ratings and public dissatisfaction with the Iraq war, gas prices and the country's direction threaten Republican leadership in Congress and put Democrats within reach of victory on November 7, analysts said.
"I don't think the question any longer is can Democrats win control of Congress, it's can Republicans do anything to stop it?" said Amy Walter, House analyst for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report newsletter. "All the factors and issues are pushing so strongly against Republicans."
All 435 House seats, 34 of 100 Senate seats and 36 governorships are at stake in November's election, with Democrats needing to pick up 15 House seats and six Senate seats to reclaim majorities.
Strategists in both parties say the glum public mood has created a strong desire for change and given Democrats a big advantage at the traditional opening of the campaign season on Monday's Labor Day holiday.
"It's too late to fix the national mood -- it's not going to be fixed," said Republican pollster Frank Luntz. "The major issues are not playing well for Republicans this year, and Republicans are not playing well with America this year."
History is also with Democrats -- the party holding the White House traditionally loses seats in a president's sixth year. The modern exception was 1998, when public unhappiness over the Republican-led impeachment of President Bill Clinton helped Democrats gain five House seats.
"This looks like a classic sixth-year election," said University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato, who called the president's low approval ratings, hovering at about 40 percent, "the single best indicator for any mid-term election."
A Democratic majority in even one chamber of Congress would slam the brakes on what is left of Bush's second-term legislative agenda and hasten his descent into lame-duck status in the final two years of his presidency.
It also would give Democrats an opportunity to hold hearings and investigate many of the administration's more controversial foreign, military and energy policy decisions.
Candidates around the country will spend Monday's Labor Day holiday marching in parades, shaking hands at fairs and laying the groundwork for the final two-month push to the November 7 election.
KEY BATTLEGROUNDS
About 40 House districts and a dozen Senate seats will be the key battlegrounds, and they will be flooded in the next two months with campaign cash and appearances by party big shots.
Democrats are in the strongest position in the House, analysts said, where nearly every endangered incumbent is Republican. Independent analyst Stuart Rothenberg projects a Democratic gain of 15-20 seats, while the Cook Report lists 17 House seats as toss-ups -- all Republican.
But Republican House campaign spokesman Carl Forti shrugged off predictions of a takeover.
"We're nowhere near as bad off as the experts would have you believe," he said, adding Bush's low ratings and public dissatisfaction with the Republican-led Congress would not determine House races.
In the Senate, Democrats are expected to pick up seats. But to win control they will need to bump off at least five Republican incumbents -- difficult but not impossible even under favorable conditions.
In recent polls, Democratic challengers led Republican incumbents Rick Santorum in Pennsylvania, Conrad Burns in Montana and Mike DeWine in Ohio. Jim Talent in Missouri, Lincoln Chafee in Rhode Island and George Allen in Virginia also face re-election struggles.
The open Tennessee seat of retiring Republican Senate Leader Bill Frist is also on the endangered list for Republicans.
Democratic incumbents Maria Cantwell in Washington, Debbie Stabenow in Michigan and Bob Menendez in New Jersey face potentially tough races, and Democrats must defend open seats in Minnesota and Maryland.
Many voters do not start paying attention until late in the campaign and many candidates only start spending heavily in September, giving the races plenty of chances to shift before the election.
Unexpected events, like the capture of al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden or a major terrorist strike, could quickly shift the political landscape.
"I'm a political realist. Can we win? Yes, but this is 10 weeks out and a lot can happen in 10 weeks," said House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi of California.
And you base all this on....what, exactly?
Explain this "technical analysis, if you would. Do you have credible polling for the local races? If so show us. All I have ever seen is the generic polling. This always seems to give the left an advantage until a real name is inserted in place of just a Party affiliation. When that happens the incumbent seems to win, and rather easily.
So exactly what races are you talking about and let's see some referenced analysis. Thanks
Based on the strongest instinct of mankind. The desire to stay alive. The problem with some people is they claim the media lies and distorts and yet use the media own flawed polling to become hysterical because they claim Rep will get decimated in the coming elections.
How about Bush's tax cuts, which turned the economy around? We have a good economy, the MSM just doesn't want to tell people.
Also, Bush tried to get a social security reform enacted, but the Dems obstructed it.
If we have nuclear plants, and drilled in ANWR and off shore, gas would be cheaper because we wouldn't have to depend on foreign oil -- all these have been and continue to be obstructed by the Dems.
And as for terrorism -- that is still the top issue, or should be -- if we get nuked, none of the other things will matter.
Polls of likely voters or polls of "adults" or even registered voters in a mid-term year? It is especially important in mid-term years to focus only on likely voter polls. Only approximately a third of registered voters tend to vote on off-year elections. And this is the GOP's secret weapon. Their GOTV operation is far ahead of anything the Rats have.
We can't be complacent. We certainly shouldn't allow ourselves to be demoralized by the MSM articles, just the opposite, it should stir us to action, get out the vote and vote Republican.
More GOP Districts Counted as Vulnerable. Number Doubled Over the Summer
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1694856/posts
There is some local (i.e. non-generic) polling done by an outfit called Strategic Vision. Their customers are usually local media (like local TV stations or newspapers). Their website is http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/results.htm
The difficult thing about mid-terms is turnout. That is why generic polling is useless. But local polling is showing similar results, i.e. endangered Republicans running begind, while so-called endangered Democrats (like Maria Cantwell) consistently ahead, albeit by a few points.
In addition, the website pollingreport.com publishes state polls commissioned by local media. Wesbite is http://www.pollingreport.com/2006.htm
Note: State poll results only to subscribers
The other thing is trends published and tracked by Rasmussen. They are showing a steady decline in Republican identification over the past 12-16 months. This is a "macro-indicator" of election results, albeit a weak one. Taken together, all of these point to the same thing, i.e. Republicans in danger.
The technical analysis I was talking about is similar to stock analysis, where you ignore fundamentals, and concentrate on mathematical and statistical trends. Even if you were to adopt this rather controversial technique, simple statistics tells me that if all 40 toss up races have Republican incumbents, it does not bode well for us.
http://www.surveyusa.com/electionpolls.aspx
By the way, I am not trying to bolster Reuters or other MSM. I am warning against dangerous complacency. In the face of the most negative GOP sentiment in 12 years, some people here are talking about large gains in the House for us, and I think this is naive, wishful thinking. I despise the Democrats and especially the Congressional Black Caucus, and I would be delighted if the pollyannas were correct, but let us not be complacent.
So says John Whitesides from Al Reuters.
I think I'll wait for the real election.
Nice misdirection try.
Try defending Bush's amnesty and third-world migration schemes on their own merits.
and sorry if I don't believe, as you appear to, that merging our homeland with Mexico and then tripling third-world migration, including mulsim immigration, is a great idea.
Congress06 2006 US Congressional Control Market
Assets: Name Description
RH_RS06 $1 if Republican House, Republican Senate in 2006 election
RH_NS06 $1 if Republican House, Non-Republican Senate in 2006 election
NH_RS06 $1 if Non-Republican House, Republican Senate in 2006 election
NH_NS06 $1 if Non-Republican House, Non-Republican Senate in 2006 election
Hasn't Al Reuters printed this article for the past 10 elections?? We will pick up a couple in both houses.
Pray for W and Our Troops
I thought all you types go in hiding before elections... you still out screaming nonsense? " "Amnesty!!!, Jorge Bush!!!, Jalapeno in every Bush!! Illegal!!! All Hispanics are are illegal!!!! The Rio Grande!!! John Wayne!!! The Alamo!!!" Does that sum up your talking points? I mean grow up.
I am sure this will change when the Republican begin their push, which has yet to happen. The same folks who switched, will again switch back and I still maintain the over riding thought in the minds of voters will be national security.
They did the same in the CA D51 race. The Rep won but the libs claimed "victory" because it was a close race in a heavily Rep district.
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