Washington Senate Poll: Cantwell (D) 53%, McGavick (R) 36% (Survey USA - 2nd poll this week)

SurveyUSA ^ | 30 August 2006 | SurveyUSA

[okstate]

In a November Head-to-Head, Cantwell Defeats McGavick:

In a hypothetical head-to-head matchup in Washington today, 8/30/06, incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Maria Cantwell beats Republican challenger Mike McGavick, 53% to 36%, according to a SurveyUSA poll of 669 Registered Voters conducted exclusively for KING-TV Seattle. Independent Robin Adair, Green Party candidate Aaron Dixon, and Libertarian Bruce Guthrie each get 3%. Another 3% are undecided. Cantwell leads by 30 points among women and by 4 points among men, a 26-point "gender gap." Cantwell gets 85% of Democrat votes. McGavick gets 84% of Republican votes. Independents favor Cantwell by 21 points. Those who approve of President George W. Bush's job performance choose McGavick 6:1. Those who disapprove of Bush's performance choose Cantwell 6:1. President Bush's approval rating among Registered Voters in Washington is 34%. The election is on 11/7/06.

Filtering:

800 Washington adults were interviewed 8/28/06 - 8/29/06. Of them, 669 were registered to vote. Crosstabs reflect Registered Voters. This survey did not attempt to identify or screen for "Likely Voters." The Washington State Primary to determine the party nominees is 9/19/06. After the Primary, research by SurveyUSA in this state will be of Likely Voters.

[okstate]

On Tuesday SurveyUSA released a WA Senate poll with Cantwell leading by 17 (56-39). Today's poll is nearly indentical, except for each candidate losing 3 percent points of support. SurveyUSA is reading this race as a lot wider than other companies, but if they are making an error, it's a very consistent one.

WA Trendlines:

7-23 Strategic Vision   Cantwell +4
8-15 Rasmussen          Cantwell +6
8-27 Strategic Vision   Cantwell +5
8-27 SurveyUSA        Cantwell +17
8-29 SurveyUSA        Cantwell +17

[antonico]

I'd always remembered Survey USA as one of THE most unreliable polling outfits ever. They always skew in favor of liberals. Heavily.

[okstate]

That's actually incorrect. They are one of the more accurate pollsters.

In terms of partisan bias they skewed Democratic by 0.1% on average in 2004.

In terms of the accuracy of margins and number of correct winners, SurveyUSA makes up the top three with Rasmussen and Mason-Dixon. (SurveyUSA had one wrong winner in the Presidential race in 2004, Rasmussen had zero, and Mason-Dixon had two wrong).

[FlingWingFlyer]

Many of the metrosexual, latte-swilling males in Washington view Cantwell as some sort of a political dominatrix. They prefer their politics that way. It’s a girlyman thing.

[pissant]

Looks like Bush wasted his time campaigning for this wuss.

[new yorker 77]

You need to stop being a tool for Survey USA.

They stink because they are inaccurate and they are run by detestable LIBS who make a career out of producing fake polls.

Only people with a frontal lobotomy would believe McGavick is down 17.

[okstate]

You need to start providing PROOF for your assertions. Ignorance is not a crime, but taking pride in it is.

[M1911A1]

I don't doubt it. The Seattle libs drive the state, and they consistently elect mental midgets like Murray, criminal traitors like Baghdad Jimmy McD, and if the voting get close, the libs get to manufacturing enough votes to make the difference (as in the last gubernatorial debacle and the Slade Gorton defeat).

I used to think that if times got tough, like in the wake of a natural disaster, the region would sober up, but after watching the idiots in New Orleans put "Schoolbus" Nagin back in office, I'm not so sure.

I fear the poll might be correct. I don't know what it would take to turn Washington around, but I'm pretty sure it won't come from the Republican party here as currently structured. They are so used to being pushed around and cheated, I think they have battered spouse syndrome.

[LS]

Note: tiny sample, and REGISTERED voters, not "likely." This accounts for the apparent "shift" toward Cantwell.

[Eagles Talon IV]

So the fact they show Cantwell with TRIPLE the lead of three other reliable pollsters is somehow not important and doesn't raise a red flag?

Are you serious?

[okstate]

I am inclined to agree. This had an even smaller sample than the first poll SurveyUSA did on this race this week.

[okstate]

Nope, that's not at all what I'm saying. My point is that we should criticize polls based on the merit of the POLL ITSELF (that is, what's going on in the polling around it, timing of when it was conducted, geographical and partisan breakdowns).

But there is absolutely NO reason to condemn this poll because of who conducted it. The simple fact is that Survey USA is, year in and year out, one of the most reliable pollsters available. For the reasons LS stated I might be willing to dismiss this poll, but not because of new yorker 77's baseless accusations of Survey USA being a "liberal polling firm" that is driven by "Soros money". (Quotes from another thread)

Now I will say that the revelation of McGavick's DUI may be hurting him somewhat, and Washington is a state that traditionally is just barely out of reach for us. (think 2004 Presidential election. We were always close but never quite could catch Kerry there) I doubt Cantwell leads by 17, but I think she is comfortably ahead and I think we would be better served focusing on races in New Jersey and Maryland, for starters.

[GregH]

Survey USA polls are bogus.

They are often heavily skewed in favour of Liberals and Democrats.

[IslandJeff]

McGavick also hasn't been running many TV ads lately, while Cantwell is blistering the Idiot Box of late with crap like "George Bush wants to lower Washington State's minimum wage!"

She's pure filth. Murray, however, is like a retarded dog. You'd take it out and shoot it if it was capable of actually doing any harm.

It'll wind up closer. McGavick has a small primary fight from a "base" candidate. Once that's cleaned up, he'll start gaining some steam.