Posted on 08/31/2006 11:46:13 AM PDT by .cnI redruM
U.S. Senator Lincoln Chafee may lose his seat to challenger Steve Laffey, according to a new statewide Republican primary voter poll released today by the Bureau of Government Research and Services at Rhode Island College.
The survey was conducted August 28-30, 2006, at Rhode Island College by Victor L. Profughi, director of the Bureau of Government Research and Services. It is based on a statewide random sample of 363 likely Republican primary voters in Rhode Island. The sample was proportioned among the state’s geographic regions to reflect the likely voter contribution from each portion of the state. Overall, the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.1 percentage points.
If the September 12 primary were held today, 51 percent say they will vote for Steve Laffey, 34 percent support Senator Chafee, and 15 percent are undecided. A BGRS survey of Republican voters conducted in June had Laffey at 39 percent and Chafee at 36 percent. Chafee’s base is virtually unchanged since the June survey, while the number of Laffey supporters has grown 12 percentage points.
In the current poll, Laffey buries Chafee among male voters by nearly a 2 to 1 margin, 58 percent to 32 percent, with only 9 percent undecided. This gap has widened from 10 percent in June to 26 percent today. Among women, Chafee’s support has remained stagnant, while Laffey’s has increased. In June, 37 percent favored Chafee, compared with the current 36 percent. Laffey’s support among women has gone up from 35 percent in June to 45 percent.
Regionally, Laffey leads Chafee in Newport County (58 percent to 25 percent), in the Providence Suburbs (56 percent to 33 percent), Blackstone Valley (49 percent to 32 percent), Washington County (48 percent to 39 percent), and Western Rhode Island (42 percent to 37). Chafee is ahead only in the city of Providence (53 percent to 40 percent) and the East Bay (40 percent to 36 percent). Among unaffiliated voters, Chafee’s support has slipped from 49 percent in June to 43 percent now, while Laffey’s strength has gone up 10 percentage points (31 percent to 41 percent).
“Since early summer, Senator Chafee has been unable to expand his base of support from roughly one third of the likely Republican primary voters. The Lieberman phenomenon, where a partisan base closes ranks around the ‘true partisan’ candidate, seems to be at work in Rhode Island, as it was on the Democratic side in Connecticut. Laffey’s efforts to link Chafee with the extremely unpopular President Bush also appear to be paying off,” said Profughi.
Respondents polled were also asked who they would vote for in the Republican Primary race for Lieutenant Governor between Reginald Centracchio and Kerry King. Nearly half of those surveyed are either undecided or will not vote on this race (51 percent). Among voters, Centracchio has a 2 to 1 lead over King (31 percent to 18 percent).
The survey was conducted at a centralized telephone bank on the RIC campus on Monday, August 28 through Wednesday, August 30, between 5:00 and 9:00 p. m. The sample of 363 voters consisted of persons who identified themselves as likely Republican primary voters. Those interviewed were randomly chosen from most recent updated voting lists provided by the Office of the Secretary of State and were limited to registered Republicans and unaffiliated voters who said they planned to vote in the Republican primary.
The sample was controlled to reflect likely voter contribution by geographic region. Survey design, implementation, and administration were supervised by Profughi, who has nearly 40 years of experience conducting public opinion surveys in Rhode Island. He and members of his supervisory and computer analysis team have conducted more than 1,000 surveys in the state since 1970.
Overall, the current poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.
Can Laffey win this fall?
In Novemeber,it will either be Chafee,who votes for us once in a while,or a *real* democRAT,who will never,*ever* vote with us.
That's the sad reality of the political landscape in New England today.
A Laffey victory in the primary will make some "purists" feel good,but it will prove to be a pyrric one next January.
It doesn't really matter ... the chances of getting a real conservative elected up there is very slim
But I sure will enjoy seeing Chafee get his fat rear kicked to the curb
.............Oh, you mean like Lincoln Chafee who worked as a blacksmith before inheriting the Senate seat from his dad.................
Yeah, Chafee was also a small town mayor (Warwick) when his dad's seat was given to him.
I'll say it again - It's too bad that RI can't nominate someone who is up to the responsibilities of a Senator.
That goes both for Laffee, Chafee, John Reed, Patches, whoever!
bump
must have been the osama comment,
Owl_Eagle
If what I just wrote made you sad or angry,
it was probably just a joke.
I wouldn't.
Chaffee is good for one vote. The organizing of the Senate.
Beyond that, he can't be counted on.
As Hugh Hewitt said in a recent book "Can you count to 51?"
We need 51 votes to organize the Senate along GOP lines. Let's get the 51 votes and then we'll go from there.
Having said all that, I'm glad Laffey is ahead in the polls. The question is whether he can win in November. Most polls should him performing worse than Chaffee.
We'll have to see what happens...
Send a message to the winning RINO not to act like the losing lib RINO.
Laffey is a better than Chafee, but barely. And my guess is he will lose RI. But the upside is getting rid of chafee.
Good catch. The reporter smoked something... What a crock!!!
"Chafee will pull a Lieberman, and run as an independant just to screw the party."
That Includes LINDSEY "WEAK kneed" GRAHAM.
You forget that most Senators aren't up to their responsibilities anyway. That certainly includes Chafee.
Ideally, all Republican Senate candidates, especially challengers, would have statewide name recognition before they even run. Personally, I think all Senators should have experience as either a governor, a congressman, or something very, very distinguished in the private sector. But a mayor of even a medium-sized town, if that town has problems, has had valuable experience making things happen against Rat opposition -- or trying to. Laffey isn't ideally qualified, but I think he's more qualified than he may seem.
"Laffey is just a small town mayor. It's too bad that RI can't come up with a pubbie candidate who's up to the responsibilities befitting a Senator."
Chaffee was a farrier. He tried on horse slippers.
The same thing needs to happen in Arizona.
It's too late for him to run as an independent.
IIRC Bush actually campaigned for Chaffee, right? If such is the case, then maybe guilt by association really was at work here in the negative sense of attaching the President to a candidate. That could be good in this specific case, but bad elsewhere.
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