Posted on 08/31/2006 11:46:13 AM PDT by .cnI redruM
U.S. Senator Lincoln Chafee may lose his seat to challenger Steve Laffey, according to a new statewide Republican primary voter poll released today by the Bureau of Government Research and Services at Rhode Island College.
The survey was conducted August 28-30, 2006, at Rhode Island College by Victor L. Profughi, director of the Bureau of Government Research and Services. It is based on a statewide random sample of 363 likely Republican primary voters in Rhode Island. The sample was proportioned among the state’s geographic regions to reflect the likely voter contribution from each portion of the state. Overall, the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.1 percentage points.
If the September 12 primary were held today, 51 percent say they will vote for Steve Laffey, 34 percent support Senator Chafee, and 15 percent are undecided. A BGRS survey of Republican voters conducted in June had Laffey at 39 percent and Chafee at 36 percent. Chafee’s base is virtually unchanged since the June survey, while the number of Laffey supporters has grown 12 percentage points.
In the current poll, Laffey buries Chafee among male voters by nearly a 2 to 1 margin, 58 percent to 32 percent, with only 9 percent undecided. This gap has widened from 10 percent in June to 26 percent today. Among women, Chafee’s support has remained stagnant, while Laffey’s has increased. In June, 37 percent favored Chafee, compared with the current 36 percent. Laffey’s support among women has gone up from 35 percent in June to 45 percent.
Regionally, Laffey leads Chafee in Newport County (58 percent to 25 percent), in the Providence Suburbs (56 percent to 33 percent), Blackstone Valley (49 percent to 32 percent), Washington County (48 percent to 39 percent), and Western Rhode Island (42 percent to 37). Chafee is ahead only in the city of Providence (53 percent to 40 percent) and the East Bay (40 percent to 36 percent). Among unaffiliated voters, Chafee’s support has slipped from 49 percent in June to 43 percent now, while Laffey’s strength has gone up 10 percentage points (31 percent to 41 percent).
“Since early summer, Senator Chafee has been unable to expand his base of support from roughly one third of the likely Republican primary voters. The Lieberman phenomenon, where a partisan base closes ranks around the ‘true partisan’ candidate, seems to be at work in Rhode Island, as it was on the Democratic side in Connecticut. Laffey’s efforts to link Chafee with the extremely unpopular President Bush also appear to be paying off,” said Profughi.
Respondents polled were also asked who they would vote for in the Republican Primary race for Lieutenant Governor between Reginald Centracchio and Kerry King. Nearly half of those surveyed are either undecided or will not vote on this race (51 percent). Among voters, Centracchio has a 2 to 1 lead over King (31 percent to 18 percent).
The survey was conducted at a centralized telephone bank on the RIC campus on Monday, August 28 through Wednesday, August 30, between 5:00 and 9:00 p. m. The sample of 363 voters consisted of persons who identified themselves as likely Republican primary voters. Those interviewed were randomly chosen from most recent updated voting lists provided by the Office of the Secretary of State and were limited to registered Republicans and unaffiliated voters who said they planned to vote in the Republican primary.
The sample was controlled to reflect likely voter contribution by geographic region. Survey design, implementation, and administration were supervised by Profughi, who has nearly 40 years of experience conducting public opinion surveys in Rhode Island. He and members of his supervisory and computer analysis team have conducted more than 1,000 surveys in the state since 1970.
Overall, the current poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.
fyi, conservative Ken Blackwell is running 25 points behind rino Mike Dewine in Ohio. Blackwell is the r for governor and Dewine is the R for senate.
In other words, you are wrong.
SS -
I also read Townhall - a good mix of columnists and opinion. Like you, I read most of the sites listed. Also agree on Powerline - their recent stumping for Bill Frist for president threw me for a loop.
I'm sure you've probably read Hugh's book. In it, he basically trashed all single issue types, urged all donations go to the RNC and none to "causes", and wanted lockstep support for every GOP candidate regardless of position. Now, I understand the need of keeping the majority, but sometimes (as in Chafee) there is simply no point. I could barely finish his book, it was so slavish in party devotion.
One final point - how much of a jerk (or poor politician) must Chafee be to get BOTH the establishment and the grass roots to turn on him?
I agree with all of this except, every gop senate candidate with any chance at all of winning has plenty of money and that includes the rinos and conservatives both.
I am aware of the loud voices on FR. This is why I am on my second username. I do not believe the loudest accurately represent the conservative movement, and I do not believe FR is the same is was a few years back. Many of the more mature voices have been pushed to the background by those who don't think Allen, Martinez, Prez Bush and Alberto Gonzales are conservatives.
In the senate, you need sixty to pass anything and that means you need to compromise with the dems if you only have 55 like now.
We have something far more dangerous than the Democrats of yore. We have a blatantly liberal media.
I dont know if the country can survive.
It seems that people have decided to buy into a lot of lies the liberals spin and forget conservative truths for the moment. This happening just 15 months after the greatest triumph of the Republican party in decades - a House, Senate and White House re-election - shows how far we have fallen.
America has a two-party system: The Media Party and the Patriots are the real two parties. Democrats are the puppets of the first and the Republicans are the unreliable allies of the second.
We lack the one thing that is needed to win, both in Iraq, and as a nation: PATIENCE.
I dont know how our nation will fare, but if it does poorly, it will be because we lack the patience, discipline and fortitude to persevere through difficult times to do the right thing.
You know, you can make a lot of money betting on election races.
I think you should mortgage your house and bet it all on laffey.
you can retire in style when he wins.
personally, I will go even money with you that he loses and almost any amount is ok with me.
Chafee makes Spectre look like a right-wing extremist.
'Nuff said. Although this is the one year when we may well miss that needed '1 vote' on senate organization.
Looks like Ohio will be purging the conservatives as rasmussen has blackwell down by 25.
$1.00.
It may not screw the party. RI will have to choose between 1 conservative and 2 libs. It may be Laffey's only hope to squeak thru with a 35%-40% vote.
If Laffey debates Whitehouse well, I think we could have a race. 50% of RI voters are Independent. However, obviously Laffey vs. Whitehouse certainly leans to Whitehouse.
Wow! Good news BUMP!
There are probably 15 seats now that have a 5 percent chance or more of flipping (6 D's, 9 R's). The D best chances to win these seats probably would be ordered something like: NE, MI, MN, MD, WA, PA, RI, MT, NJ, OH, MO, VA, TN, AZ, NV.
To get to 51, they need 11 out of 15.
Yikes I forgot Ohio. The over/under is close to 5 seats, GOP loss, maybe 4.75. DeWine might be put as a 40%-45% chance to win.
Those percentages sound about right, except that you left out Ohio where DeWine is trailing in all the latest polls.
wrong math. They need to win 12 out of these 15 to take the senate.
Ya, I forgot Ohio. 30% is about right, for a six seat Dem gain.
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