[crasher]

I would say 30 percent chance right now.

There are probably 15 seats now that have a 5 percent chance or more of flipping (6 D's, 9 R's). The D best chances to win these seats probably would be ordered something like: NE, MI, MN, MD, WA, PA, RI, MT, NJ, OH, MO, VA, TN, AZ, NV.

To get to 51, they need 11 out of 15.

[crasher]

wrong math. They need to win 12 out of these 15 to take the senate.

[Torie]

Ya, I forgot Ohio. 30% is about right, for a six seat Dem gain.

[Dolphy]

Here's an August 16, 2006 Rasmussen poll that has Stabenow up 49-45. The Democrats are vulnerable here. Stabenow has accomplished very, very little after barely winning the seat in 2000 and Michigan's economy is in horrible shape.

That poll also says that close to half of the voters here call the economy their top election issue, more than three quarters think a photo ID should be required to vote and two thirds think ballots should be printed in English only. I think the state is in play.