Posted on 08/31/2006 11:46:13 AM PDT by .cnI redruM
U.S. Senator Lincoln Chafee may lose his seat to challenger Steve Laffey, according to a new statewide Republican primary voter poll released today by the Bureau of Government Research and Services at Rhode Island College.
The survey was conducted August 28-30, 2006, at Rhode Island College by Victor L. Profughi, director of the Bureau of Government Research and Services. It is based on a statewide random sample of 363 likely Republican primary voters in Rhode Island. The sample was proportioned among the state’s geographic regions to reflect the likely voter contribution from each portion of the state. Overall, the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.1 percentage points.
If the September 12 primary were held today, 51 percent say they will vote for Steve Laffey, 34 percent support Senator Chafee, and 15 percent are undecided. A BGRS survey of Republican voters conducted in June had Laffey at 39 percent and Chafee at 36 percent. Chafee’s base is virtually unchanged since the June survey, while the number of Laffey supporters has grown 12 percentage points.
In the current poll, Laffey buries Chafee among male voters by nearly a 2 to 1 margin, 58 percent to 32 percent, with only 9 percent undecided. This gap has widened from 10 percent in June to 26 percent today. Among women, Chafee’s support has remained stagnant, while Laffey’s has increased. In June, 37 percent favored Chafee, compared with the current 36 percent. Laffey’s support among women has gone up from 35 percent in June to 45 percent.
Regionally, Laffey leads Chafee in Newport County (58 percent to 25 percent), in the Providence Suburbs (56 percent to 33 percent), Blackstone Valley (49 percent to 32 percent), Washington County (48 percent to 39 percent), and Western Rhode Island (42 percent to 37). Chafee is ahead only in the city of Providence (53 percent to 40 percent) and the East Bay (40 percent to 36 percent). Among unaffiliated voters, Chafee’s support has slipped from 49 percent in June to 43 percent now, while Laffey’s strength has gone up 10 percentage points (31 percent to 41 percent).
“Since early summer, Senator Chafee has been unable to expand his base of support from roughly one third of the likely Republican primary voters. The Lieberman phenomenon, where a partisan base closes ranks around the ‘true partisan’ candidate, seems to be at work in Rhode Island, as it was on the Democratic side in Connecticut. Laffey’s efforts to link Chafee with the extremely unpopular President Bush also appear to be paying off,” said Profughi.
Respondents polled were also asked who they would vote for in the Republican Primary race for Lieutenant Governor between Reginald Centracchio and Kerry King. Nearly half of those surveyed are either undecided or will not vote on this race (51 percent). Among voters, Centracchio has a 2 to 1 lead over King (31 percent to 18 percent).
The survey was conducted at a centralized telephone bank on the RIC campus on Monday, August 28 through Wednesday, August 30, between 5:00 and 9:00 p. m. The sample of 363 voters consisted of persons who identified themselves as likely Republican primary voters. Those interviewed were randomly chosen from most recent updated voting lists provided by the Office of the Secretary of State and were limited to registered Republicans and unaffiliated voters who said they planned to vote in the Republican primary.
The sample was controlled to reflect likely voter contribution by geographic region. Survey design, implementation, and administration were supervised by Profughi, who has nearly 40 years of experience conducting public opinion surveys in Rhode Island. He and members of his supervisory and computer analysis team have conducted more than 1,000 surveys in the state since 1970.
Overall, the current poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.
Praise The Lord.
Dear Lord, PLEASE MAKE IT SO in November that we have much more of a conservative in that position, in Your Name, Lord.
Wake up the whole state to the evils of George Soros' DIMRATS, Globalists et al, please, Lord.
Primaries are for "takin out the trash!"
Leiberman is 99% pure Liberal, and loyal to his party. The fact he stands for protection of this country doesn't equate him to a Liberal Republican, out of sync even with the more Liberal Republicans in the Senate, that has NEVER demonstrated any loyalty whatsoever. And, Laffey isn't even CLOSE to partisan.
That stated...WooHoo!!
Chafee gives us NO advantage. He'd stick a knife in our backs in a split Senate, and he commands campaign funding and activity that should be used in better races. Why the hell the GOP has rushed protect this worthless RINO rather then funnel more to Santorum, Steele, Bouchard, House seats (and challengers like Irey) etc...is beyond me. They have been slitting their own throats when supposedly their job is to protect the Majority of their caucus. I'll bet the rest of the Republicans on the Hill could have made far better use of that money and the First Lady's campaign stops.
Yet, don't underestimate the crossover Dems Chafee has signed up to vote for him. Also, like they did for Specter, the GOP has sent in its hired activists to tend to this race.
Chafee is a democrat ... Hiding behind his father's name
Actually, even Hewitt is onboard to throw Chafee overboard. At least he was last time I checked.
IMO, the fact Chafee announced he wouldn't vote for Bush is why. Hewitt is a GOP man to the core, and I think that greatly offended him. It certainly can't be because he isn't conservative enough, given some of the other positions Hewitt defends by Republicans. When even Hewitt jumps, the party firsters on this board should know they are outnumbered by far.
And what good if Chafee if he wouldn't even vote for Samuel Alito? The only republican not to do so.
Saying "vote for Chafee to stop the democrat" is tantamount to saying "vote for Hillary Clinton to stop the democrat."
The Democrats already own the seat policy wise. No loss.
If you are refering to numbers, if it's split 50/50 Chafee jumps. Whether you believe that doesn't matter. He's held meetings with Dems before and announced that's a probability. Fact is he's EARNED distrust. If that bothers you, direct it to candidate that has convinced people he'll pull a Jeffords in a heartbeat.
Because the GOP realizes that Chaffee can win, and Laffey can not.
Last I checked some of the polls had Chafee losing in the general election. So, no, they don't know he can win. They hope he can win. And they would waste campaign funds that could result in gains elsewhere, or at very least SAVE seats, to save a candidate that isn't reliable, may jump ship, and is more Liberal then Feingold and Clinton.
This is the only response you'll get from me. I'm spent too many months arguing the issue and I'm tired of the repetition. Nothing I'm saying now is different then what I said three months ago. Address my old posts for answers to your questions about Chafee. The same responses given then will apply to any statements you direct me now.
The fact remains that when even party man Hewitt is on my side I consider the argument won.
I watched their debate on C-span a few days ago and NO THAT IS NOT SO> Chafee sounded like a SOCIALIST talking about everything. HE MAKES ME ILL>
"/i/If there are 30 red states capable of producing 60 GOP senators/i/"
"Because there are not 30 red states. There are maybe 20 with the rest like Ohio, Florida Missouri, Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada are swing states where GWB won by less than 3 percent."
Lemme see.
Chafee runs as a pubbie.
He wins as a pubbie.
He gets ousted as a pubbie, by pubbies.
Apparently he's not making someone happy there. I guess we'll know in November for sure.
...And the sheep will be separated from the goats...
"However, given the options of Chaffee or a Democrat occupying this seat, I think the odds of Chaffee caucusing with Republicans is far greater than that his Democratic opponent would do so."
I mistyped. I said 'real conservative' and I meant real republican.
When you make an omelet, you have to break some eggs. In cleaning the GOP, there will be some loses but it is for the ultimate and greater good. We aren't losing much in losing Chafee.
You nailed it regarding how Chafee makes committees that should have a 2-vote GOP advantage evenly split, thereby forfeiting GOP control over legislation. I actually wrote about that last year (when I argued that we'd be better off if Chafee switched), and a link to it is on post #175.
No, the GOP has a small natural advantage. Winning a state by a few percentage points, especially if you're, like Bush, an incumbent running in good times against an unattractive challenger, does not mean the state can reliably be placed in your (our) party's column.
However, incumbent senators, or at least incumbent Democratic senators, have a large natural advantage.
That's a rule made up by incumbents to enhance their chance of being reelected. Anytime is the time to take out the trash.
And we have to make the most of the ones we have.
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