Posted on 08/28/2006 11:23:42 AM PDT by gopwinsin04
The results of the latest GOP Bloggers straw poll are in. The poll was posted on the Red State homepage over the weekend, and first-choice results are as follows (full results with RS results in parentheses).
Giuliani 24.6% (22.0%) Gingrich 21.1% (19.5%) Romney 12.8% (15.8%) Allen 11.5% (11.3%) Tancredo 6.7% (4.5%) McCain 6.4% (6.7%) Hagel 2.8% (3.3%) Brownback 2.5% (3.2%) Huckabee 1.5% (1.8%) Frist 1.1% (0.9%) Pataki 0.3% (0.3%)Read on...
The Macaca incident has clearly devastated Allen’s numbers in the blogosphere, his stronghold. He used to have sky-high favorability, largely because he hadn’t done anything to offend anyone. He also used to run first or second (tangling with Giuliani) with 20% to 30% in polls like this. Once undefined, he has now been defined in a hugely negative way, dropping to fourth with 11.5% support.
The only true direct comparison is the results for individual blogs. From July to August, Allen dropped 23.9% in net favorability among RedState readers. RealClearPolitics also ran the poll both months – and probably has an audience that’s even more plugged-in politically than RedState. On that site, Allen dropped an astonishing 41.6% points in a month, and now has 6.5% first place votes. Allen probably still retains some “true-believer” support among the more conservative sites of the blogosphere. Let’s see if that holds up.
Who’s the new conservative “it” candidate? Newt! The conservative mantle has shifted to Newt over the last few months. He got a huge boost last month for being all over the Israel-Hezbollah war. Allen’s implosion has given Newt’s people a reason to stick around, at least for a while. Vis Numar makes this development the headline, but inaccurately notes that his numbers went from +1% to +40% in a month. That was actually from a poll taken earlier in the year, but it highlights how far Newt has come.
Bottom line: It looks like Newt’s decision to stay out the race until November of ’07 could throw the race into some turmoil, with all the major campaigns calculating what happens if Newt gets in. He’s clearly trying to play kingmaker and anoint the preferred conservative if he doesn’t run, and numbers like this suggest he could pull it off.
Giuliani and Romney show positive movement. There’s a consistent pattern of Romney and Giuliani momentum among a few of the bigger blogs participating in the poll. Among RedState readers, Romney moved up a net 10.9% and Giuliani a net 10.8% in acceptability. On RealClearPolitics, Romney moved up 18.9% to Giuliani’s 12.5%. On Blogs for Bush, Giuliani moved up 22.8% and Romney was up 14.8%.
McCain supporters love Giuliani and Giuliani supporters are pretty fond of Romney – handy reference should either of the two offline frontrunners falter.
Men and boys by AcademicElephant Looks like the men are being seperated from the boys--but I'm still having trouble getting excited about any of them.
"I'm kind of old-fashioned. I like to engage my brain before my mouth." Donald Rumsfeld
True, W had been a fighter pilot, but what else qualified him to be a wartime president? And he's been a good one.
A good leader is a good leader. I think Allen has what it takes.
Time will tell.
Yes, most GOP bloggers are Caligliani fans, but most GOP voters, as conservative Protestants and conservative others, are not. So give up the silliness, and nominate Newt. Our elite will control themselves and give us Newt, or they will be ruled by Hillary.
Macaque \Ma`caque"\, n. [F. See Macacus.] (Zool.) Any one of several species of short-tailed monkeys of the genus Macaca (formerly Macacus), found in rocky regions of Asia and Africa; as, Macaca maurus, the moor macaque of the East Indies. Note: Macaca mulatta is the Rhesus monkey, much used in biomedical research, and namesake of the Rh factor used in blood typing (due to discovery of that factor in the Rhesus monkey). [1913 Webster +PJC]
Got a bad taste for Newt when he did the renewable fuels panel at the Iowa State Fair this month along with Dem Governor Vilsack.
Gingrich spoke as if he believes that the global warming myth were true. Shocked me. Bigtime.
Considering his past hostility to that myth, it smacked of extreme (and dangerous) pandering to me.
In light of the fact that there's new polling out that shows an increasing number of Americans who believe in that garbage, ya hafta wonder if the man isn't operating solely by listening to polling and focus groups.
One other note about Gingrich's appearance at the Iowa State Fair with Vilsack on the renewable fuels panel:
When asked about the FairTax, Gingrich totally wimped out. Ended up endorsing the flat income tax.
Newt Gingrich is SO ten years ago...*bleh*
Thanks for the info EV.
10:53 - Question about gas prices - how reduce tax on fuels, consider national sales tax? Vilsack - Iowa aggressively reducing taxes by encouraging producers to pass tax credit savings to consumer. Part of the challenge is to have total transportation strategy.”America spends too much time in gridlock.” Sales taxes tend to be regressive. Gingrich - Fair tax interesting idea. Complicated idea to lay out nationally. Current tax code complex. Flat tax now gaining popularity. Wants to incentivize renewable fuels and new fuel cars. Market-based solution. Must cut government in order to reduce taxes. Entrepreneurial public management.
http://www.politicalforecast.net/2006/08/12/isf-2006-renewable-fuels-forum-notes/
"What a shame about George Allen."
I think someone else has the chance to pop up.
Your list of unacceptable GOP candidates for the GOP nomination is just so long, and the list of acceptable ones is just so short. :)
ping -- look who has a new republican candidate to get busy tearing down.... as gomer pyle would say, "suh-prize, suh-prize, suh-price"
Well, in the end, there can only be ONE, right? ;-)
Well I am an easier grader. I have more than one on my acceptable list. Color me "catholic" (lower case "c") in my tastes or something. :)
Simply pointing out what he's saying on the stump about an issue that's near and dear to my heart: Fundamental tax reform.
No surprises here, though. If Newt actually wanted fundamental tax reform, he'd have scrounged up the political courage to advance it ten years ago.
Or maybe not. He tends to only stick with stuff that gets 80% or better approval from his focus groups...
So, are you on Newt's payroll these days, "PDR"?
By the way, your "acceptable" list at this point appears to be white space.
I think the nomination of Rudolph Giuliani would spell the speedy end of the Republican Party.
However, I don't think that the powers-that-be have any silly illusions that he can actually win the nomination in any case.
They are simply using him as a tool for pushing people's standards to the left.
Making room for "Bush-lite".
Yep. Keeping my powder dry, and doing what little I can to make sure folks know where the current erstwhile field actually stands.
IC.
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