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The First Post-Macaca GOP '08 Straw Poll (Allen Craters to 11.5%)
Red State.com ^ | 8.27.06 | machiavel

Posted on 08/28/2006 11:23:42 AM PDT by gopwinsin04

The results of the latest GOP Bloggers straw poll are in. The poll was posted on the Red State homepage over the weekend, and first-choice results are as follows (full results with RS results in parentheses).

Giuliani 24.6% (22.0%) Gingrich 21.1% (19.5%) Romney 12.8% (15.8%) Allen 11.5% (11.3%) Tancredo 6.7% (4.5%) McCain 6.4% (6.7%) Hagel 2.8% (3.3%) Brownback 2.5% (3.2%) Huckabee 1.5% (1.8%) Frist 1.1% (0.9%) Pataki 0.3% (0.3%)Read on...

The Macaca incident has clearly devastated Allen’s numbers in the blogosphere, his stronghold. He used to have sky-high favorability, largely because he hadn’t done anything to offend anyone. He also used to run first or second (tangling with Giuliani) with 20% to 30% in polls like this. Once undefined, he has now been defined in a hugely negative way, dropping to fourth with 11.5% support.

The only true direct comparison is the results for individual blogs. From July to August, Allen dropped 23.9% in net favorability among RedState readers. RealClearPolitics also ran the poll both months – and probably has an audience that’s even more plugged-in politically than RedState. On that site, Allen dropped an astonishing 41.6% points in a month, and now has 6.5% first place votes. Allen probably still retains some “true-believer” support among the more conservative sites of the blogosphere. Let’s see if that holds up.

Who’s the new conservative “it” candidate? Newt! The conservative mantle has shifted to Newt over the last few months. He got a huge boost last month for being all over the Israel-Hezbollah war. Allen’s implosion has given Newt’s people a reason to stick around, at least for a while. Vis Numar makes this development the headline, but inaccurately notes that his numbers went from +1% to +40% in a month. That was actually from a poll taken earlier in the year, but it highlights how far Newt has come.

Bottom line: It looks like Newt’s decision to stay out the race until November of ’07 could throw the race into some turmoil, with all the major campaigns calculating what happens if Newt gets in. He’s clearly trying to play kingmaker and anoint the preferred conservative if he doesn’t run, and numbers like this suggest he could pull it off.

Giuliani and Romney show positive movement. There’s a consistent pattern of Romney and Giuliani momentum among a few of the bigger blogs participating in the poll. Among RedState readers, Romney moved up a net 10.9% and Giuliani a net 10.8% in acceptability. On RealClearPolitics, Romney moved up 18.9% to Giuliani’s 12.5%. On Blogs for Bush, Giuliani moved up 22.8% and Romney was up 14.8%.

McCain supporters love Giuliani and Giuliani supporters are pretty fond of Romney – handy reference should either of the two offline frontrunners falter.

Men and boys by AcademicElephant Looks like the men are being seperated from the boys--but I'm still having trouble getting excited about any of them.

"I'm kind of old-fashioned. I like to engage my brain before my mouth." Donald Rumsfeld


TOPICS: Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: District of Columbia; US: Virginia
KEYWORDS: 2008; 2008polls; allen; allen2008; brownback; frist; gingrich; giuliani; giuliani2008; gop; hagel; huckabee; mccain; pataki; redstate; romney; tancredo
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To: Luke21

What a sorry group again we have to choose from. Is there not one true headbanging take no prisoners conservative out there?

Might be Gingrich and the closeline clip on the nose for me.


81 posted on 08/28/2006 1:54:44 PM PDT by samadams2000
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To: Corin Stormhands

Republicans really do know how the hurt Republicans! With "friends" like this, who needs the macaca/enemy?


82 posted on 08/28/2006 1:55:11 PM PDT by W04Man (Bush2004 Grassroots Campaign We Did It! NOW.... PLEASE STAY THE COURSE!)
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To: top 2 toe red

couln't AH-nold run for veep?


83 posted on 08/28/2006 1:58:55 PM PDT by gopwinsin04
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To: newzjunkey
The GOP cannot, will not win without a pro-life candidate at the top. Too many voters think that too important an issue - more on the pro-life side than the other. Whining about Hillary getting in will not change that reality.

You don't have to worry though. As the '08 primaries approach, issues in the back of many heads now in mid-'06 will surface...

84 posted on 08/28/2006 1:59:23 PM PDT by Lexinom
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To: chuckles; All
The Macaca thing (didn't know, looked it up) refers to a Allen calling a video-taping volunteer from the opposition "Macaca" which, to some that track those things, is an ethnic slur for monkey. The volunteer is an American of East-Indian ethnicity, thus dark skin. Allen claimed he was trying to call him 'mohawk' after his haircut. Some say that was bogus because the photo circulated didn't show an unusual style. However, this photo shows his hair might have appeared to be a 'mohawk' to Allen:

So Allen either called the guy he knew was videotaping him a 'monkey' to boost his cred with any white-power types in the crowd or was an idiot.

85 posted on 08/28/2006 2:07:49 PM PDT by newzjunkey (Support Arnold-McClintock or embrace high taxes, gay weddings with Angelides.)
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To: gopwinsin04

Nope. VP has to meet the same constitutional qualifications as President meaning native born.


86 posted on 08/28/2006 2:13:17 PM PDT by newzjunkey (Support Arnold-McClintock or embrace high taxes, gay weddings with Angelides.)
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To: gopwinsin04

I recall Ronald Reagan's off the cuff remarks being blamed repeatedly for his demise in the news media in 1980. And again in 1984.


87 posted on 08/28/2006 2:26:28 PM PDT by Ghengis (Alexander was a wuss!)
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To: newzjunkey
However, this photo shows his hair might have appeared to be a 'mohawk' to Allen:

It's clearly a mullet. But you can't criticize mullets in Virginia ;)

88 posted on 08/28/2006 2:35:44 PM PDT by JohnnyZ ("I respect and will protect a woman's right to choose" -- Mitt Romney, April 2002)
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To: Brilliant

I never thought I'd see the day when Gingrich had a real shot of winning the nomination. But it looks like he might...........................

I think what has distinguished Newt from the rest of the pack so far, and may be part of his recent appeal, is the fact that he has stated (quite accurately) that we are in the early stages of WWIII, which of course suggests a recognition of what we are up against.



89 posted on 08/28/2006 2:39:28 PM PDT by Grateful One
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To: gopwinsin04
Allen isn't very presidential, but when I saw the "macaca" clip on television, it didn't seem quite as bad as people had made it out to be. It looked like his was pulling out a word that sounded like SidDARth[a], maCAca, and found something his mother might have said to him without really knowing what it meant.

So I'd give him a pass on any sort of bad intention. But singling out someone who was only videotaping him for the other side for derrogatory mention does indicate bad judgement, and perhaps a bullying streak.

Pop psychoanalysis isn't worth much, but Allen looks like the kind of guy who didn't quite fit in, and so tried to overconform to what he took to be the jock or big man on campus model, something he hasn't quite outgrown.

The real significance of the incident may be that it indicates how much the Internet has changed politics. For good or ill, things get pondered and digested, analyzed and overanalyzed a lot more now than they once did.

90 posted on 08/28/2006 2:54:22 PM PDT by x
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To: gopwinsin04

No.


91 posted on 08/28/2006 2:59:42 PM PDT by top 2 toe red (To the enemy in Iraq..."Don't bet on American politics forcing my hand!" President Bush)
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To: newzjunkey
It's their post so IMO is a given, don't you think?

I think it. Apparently, many posters do not think it is limited to their opinion, when their posts are peppered with....

...so and so is scum. Period.

...so and so will never secure the nomination. Period.

...so and so will be the nominee. Period

...etc., etc.

There are some 'core' things that separate Republicans from Democrats and having a prolife candidate at the top of the ticket is one this voter would very much hate to see go away.

I totally respect that and you see you stated that as something you would very much hate to see go away...you did not say a prolife candidate WILL be at the top of the ticket and you did not say any candidate not living up to what you desire is scum. Big, big difference. IMO ;^)

92 posted on 08/28/2006 3:22:14 PM PDT by top 2 toe red (To the enemy in Iraq..."Don't bet on American politics forcing my hand!" President Bush)
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To: GeorgefromGeorgia

All I know is The Sinkmeister rolled in to town to campaign for Webb. That about guarantees Webb's defeat.

I don't think one candidate Bubba has publically endorsed has won the race.


93 posted on 08/28/2006 3:32:52 PM PDT by wouldntbprudent (If you can: Contribute more (babies) to the next generation of God-fearing American Patriots!)
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To: wagglebee

Ding ding ding . . . we have a winner!

Yep, you got it exactly right.

The Rats are all over Allen b/c they know he's the one to beat in 2008.

Plus the Rats can't handle another high profile defeat, this time in Virginia. If Lamont and Webb get their heads handed to them in the general election (from my lips to God's ears), the Rats will have proof positive that the moonbat base is not enough to elect an anti-war moonbat candidate.

Further plus, George Allen is one of the few Republican candidates who has never been shy about supporting W when W should be supported. The Rats hate that just about more than anything.

To the Rats, George Allen is just George Bush without the W. And they hate him.

Another reason I can't wait until George is president.


94 posted on 08/28/2006 3:37:08 PM PDT by wouldntbprudent (If you can: Contribute more (babies) to the next generation of God-fearing American Patriots!)
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To: Vigilanteman

And "the blogosphere, his stronghold"?

Puh-leeze.

George Allen was not created by the blogosphere and he's not sustained by the blogosphere. More hyperbole, like the fuzzy math you pointed out.


95 posted on 08/28/2006 3:38:45 PM PDT by wouldntbprudent (If you can: Contribute more (babies) to the next generation of God-fearing American Patriots!)
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To: wagglebee

Oh, I've always wanted to see George Allen and J.D. Hayworth on the ticket. I just think that would be kick-butt fun, a sort of a good cop/bad cop routine.


96 posted on 08/28/2006 3:40:27 PM PDT by wouldntbprudent (If you can: Contribute more (babies) to the next generation of God-fearing American Patriots!)
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To: Corin Stormhands

I wonder how many of his critics ever heard the word “Macaca” before our “esteemed” MSM started playing it up.


97 posted on 08/28/2006 3:43:50 PM PDT by R. Scott (Humanity i love you because when you're hard up you pawn your Intelligence to buy a drink)
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To: x

Well, Allen fit in very well, thank you! His father was coach of the Washington Redskins and he always moved comfortably in many different circles.

And he was a very popular governor, too.


98 posted on 08/28/2006 3:45:52 PM PDT by wouldntbprudent (If you can: Contribute more (babies) to the next generation of God-fearing American Patriots!)
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To: gopwinsin04

I wouldn't call it cratering. (I do think he shouldn't have apologized. He should have stuck to his guns that he thought it was the guy's name.)

In any case, he's in 3rd place behind Gingrich and Giuliani.

If I have to worry about Guiliani winning, then I'll go with the closest conservative. At this point, that will be Gingrich.

I'd prefer Allen/Frist/Tancredo because Gingrich has a lot of baggage with his divorce.


99 posted on 08/28/2006 4:36:43 PM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and proud of it! Supporting our troops means praying for them to WIN!)
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To: Beagle8U

Ummm, ok...I think there is a vast difference in your definition of "everything" and my definition of "everything"...now, shall we try "vagueness" and guess how far apart we are on that definition?


100 posted on 08/28/2006 5:44:53 PM PDT by top 2 toe red (To the enemy in Iraq..."Don't bet on American politics forcing my hand!" President Bush)
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