Posted on 08/28/2006 7:27:21 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Florida Governor Jeb Bush ordered a state of emergency in advance of Ernesto's anticipated Florida landfall as a hurricane. During his press briefing, Governor Bush emphasized the need to, "Have your family plan in place. Be prepared to be on your own for 72 hours. I know it sounds like a broken record." Jeb then repeated his message in Spanish.
All of the South Florida peninsula and Keys are under a hurricane watch, and portions of the watch areas may be upgraded to hurricane warnings later today.
NASA is moving Space Shuttle Atlantis from the launch pad back to its protective hangar, with the launch postponed until at least Sept. 7-8.
Hurricane Ernesto was downgraded to Tropical Storm status after battering Haiti and the Dominican Republic all day Sunday. The death toll in Haiti from Ernesto currently stands at 1 person; storm reports from Hispaniola are scarce this morning.
Ernesto has approached the eastern portion of Cuba, where the government issued a hurricane warning for six provinces, tourists were evacuated, and baseball games were played earlier Sunday than originally scheduled.
Public Advisories Updated every three hours.
Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours
Ernesto Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 3 & 5 day forecast tracks
Buoy Data Florida & Eastern GOM
Satellite Images
Additional Resources:
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Tropical Storm Ernesto I
Hurricane Ernesto
Prayers for protection of life & property in the storm's path.
Great story about the structural integrity of your grandmother's house--and nice forecast analysis. Thank you.
That does seem to be over doing it a little.
Every cat 1 storm was a disaster in my area. It was at least a week of just hell. Granted I didn't loose my house.....but it was not fun at all.
And last year there were very few West Pacific typhoons. Proof of global cooling? Of course not, but we could claim such if we adhered to the "logic" of the liberals.
And 30 miles to the west and my family will be pummeled in Wilmington!
I hope everyone is prepared and safe, but I hope this thing
brings some rain to 'Bama.
The trend is your friend. The forecast and actual tracks have continually shifted eastward. And from what I can see of the sat images (it's almost impossible to find a center right now over Cuba), it has continued to move more NNW than NW. Good news - small shifts now can mean large track varations later.
I heard on the radio this morning reporting "New Orleans Levees are considered Safe". The jock starting laughing and commented just yesterday it was considered dangerous.
The ECMWF (Euro model) has the restrengthened Ernesto hitting at/near Hatteras Labor Day.
Final hurricane prep is kinda like trying to draw an inside straight on the last card. We're all trying to handicap this thing and it looks like the hurricane panels will go up after dinner. Tues morn may be too wet to do so.
Ernesto is <40MPH...now
Either I'm seing things, or the trough that was to the north of Ernesto is now dug down into the western side of the storm. There is no convection and no outflow to the west - and this would also tend to push Ernesto further north for a few hours.
It'll be interesting to watch this one...an opinion ... 'cause of all the hype taking place in the MSM on hurricanes...people stepped out there WAY to early in their forecasting...that most probably is the reason most have so poorly forecasted Ernesto, IMHO. This a typical hurricane season and Ernesto is a typical storm.
Yeah, most of the precautions are for going without power, water, or certain groceries, etc. Even if property damage doesn't look likely, a little pre-planning can make life a lot more enjoyable should you have to go without things for a couple days.
Thing that were hard to get for a few days around me included gasoline, ice, meats & dairy, and chlorine for the pool (when there's not enough electricity to go around, you're not running the pool pump.)
Good. we need the rain.
I resented losing all my food in the freezer, not being able to use the phone, not enough gas to travel (not that you were allowed to for a few days) and no air conditioning....nothing like sweltering in a hot house with wet sticky floors....then having to get up and get ready to go to work with cold water and no hair dryer.
I should be in good shape here in western NC just as long as it doesn't shift tracks again. I heard we can flood here a bit in Buncombe with rainmakers.
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