The trend is your friend. The forecast and actual tracks have continually shifted eastward. And from what I can see of the sat images (it's almost impossible to find a center right now over Cuba), it has continued to move more NNW than NW. Good news - small shifts now can mean large track varations later.
Ernesto is <40MPH...now
It'll be interesting to watch this one...an opinion ... 'cause of all the hype taking place in the MSM on hurricanes...people stepped out there WAY to early in their forecasting...that most probably is the reason most have so poorly forecasted Ernesto, IMHO. This a typical hurricane season and Ernesto is a typical storm.