TS/Hurricane/TS Ernesto

NWS/NHC ^ | 28 August 2006 | NHC

[dirtboy]

That shot there is not that long after the center was fully exposed. It shows that if the convection hadn't been displaced, you had a healthy system.

But it also shows that a 40mph diminishing tropical storm shorn of its circulation still has a recognizable one. You have to gut a chicken and read the entrails to try and find one here.

[dirtboy]

Oops, that didn't come out right. Should have been:

But it also shows that a 40mph diminishing tropical storm shorn of its convection still has a recognizable circulation.

[1COUNTER-MORTER-68]

Those people have never been through a Hurricane/Typhoon !!!

[nwctwx]

Yes, it does. I think Ernesto is done. I would be surprised if he makes it out of Cuba alive.

[RDTF]

check out the link at 493

[RDTF]

I'm not ruling him out quite so fast but hoping you are right

[Howlin]

Watching The Weather Channel right now, Jim Cantore is still holding out hope he'll turn into a ratings' blockbuster.

[DAVEY CROCKETT]

WOW this is interesting...

China says typhoons have left 15 million homeless
Last Updated Fri, 25 Aug 2006 10:13:48 EDT
CBC News
Officials in southeastern China are trying to resettle more than 15 million people left homeless after four devastating typhoons hit the coast, said the official Xinhua news agency.
http://www.cbc.ca/story/world/national/2006/08/25/china-typhoon.html

[Dog Gone]

It's pretty weird on those forums. You get some good information, but it's populated with people who want mayhem. The last thing they want is a storm to die.

The weirdest thing are the people who try to make every move of the storm mean that they're personally going to get nailed. There's a term for that, "wishcasting." It was before the internet, but I hoped to experience a hurricane, so I would have been a wishcaster if I'd had the opportunity.

I got Andrew, and my wishcasting days are over. I saw Rita last year where dozens of people died on the sweltering freeway just trying to run.

I hope these storms never form and the ones that do all head to Iceland. There is nothing the least bit fun about them.

[AFPhys]

According to this:
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/intensity1.png
, there is one, and only one intensity model that shows this sucker EVER getting near Cat.1: the by now thoroughly discredited (for this storm) SHIPS.

I can't understand why NHC continues to rely on this for intensity!

PS:By the way, that image changes every few hours. It would be really great if someone could copy it, and put it somewhere that it won't be lost the way all the others from that website have been, that also showed how badly SHIPS fared against any and ALL of the other intensity models.

[dirtboy]

I think there might be a broad mid-level circulation remaining - you can get a sense of that on the water vapor imagery. And that could regenerate. But that takes a fair amount of time. And a mid-level circulation is NOT a depression. And observers on the ground in Cuba did not report a circulation, as noted in the 5pm discussion.

I think the NHC might downgrade it to a depression in the 11 pm advisory, but given how close this is to Florida, they won't declare it dead yet, just in case.

[RDTF]

yikes! access forbidden

[CindyDawg]

I saw a funny one the other day that posted that Houston was far enough from the coast to take any storm and should never be evacuated. He/she said something like everyone just needed to stay in the house.

[CFC__VRWC]

I got Andrew, and my wishcasting days are over.

My wishcasting days were over on August 13, 2004. By the time September 2004 was over, I'd decided that if I never saw a hurricane again it'd be too soon.

[dirtboy]

I can't understand why NHC continues to rely on this for intensity!

It's the bureaucratic mindset. You can't get fired for relying on the models. And given how much the Dems have played politics with hurricanes nowadays, I really can't blame the NHC for being ultra-careful in waiting to make sure Ernesto is gone. Can you imagine the Congressional hearings if they said it was gone, and it blew back up to a Cat 1 with twelve hours notice before hitting Miami? Oh, the huge manatees!

[AFPhys]

HooooKay:::

Try this: http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

then: Early-cycle intensity guidance frame 1

[RDTF]

that worked!

[dirtboy]

The weirdest thing are the people who try to make every move of the storm mean that they're personally going to get nailed.

Crap, at one point last year Rita, at Cat 5 strength, was forecast to come ashore in Texas just 40 miles north of where my parents lived (they moved inland this summer, thank God). My dad pulled a Nagin and didn't have a hotel reservation yet. Thankfully, I have an understanding boss who allowed me to take two hours of personal time on the spot to try and find them a friggin' hotel room, given the eastern half of Texas was already full of Katrina refugees ("Gee, Dad, how does a nice vacation in Big Bend sound about now???"). But I lucked out and found a room in Kingsville, and then the storm turned away. I sure as heck am glad I won't have to do that again.

[CFC__VRWC]

And given how much the Dems have played politics with hurricanes nowadays, I really can't blame the NHC for being ultra-careful in waiting to make sure Ernesto is gone.

I'm half expecting the Dims to demand hearings on why the NHC had such a hard time tracking this storm, just so they can try to claim that Bush has staffed it with incompetent hacks. That's as low as they have sunk these days.

[1COUNTER-MORTER-68]

Yeppers,,saw that one,,THANK YOU And ALL who put in these
Links,,,Makes it Easy for Me to find.
The NOAA stuff has all been changed without MY permission.

;0)