It's the bureaucratic mindset. You can't get fired for relying on the models. And given how much the Dems have played politics with hurricanes nowadays, I really can't blame the NHC for being ultra-careful in waiting to make sure Ernesto is gone. Can you imagine the Congressional hearings if they said it was gone, and it blew back up to a Cat 1 with twelve hours notice before hitting Miami? Oh, the huge manatees!
I'm half expecting the Dims to demand hearings on why the NHC had such a hard time tracking this storm, just so they can try to claim that Bush has staffed it with incompetent hacks. That's as low as they have sunk these days.
I understand that to some degree, but really, not a single other model has gotten close to missing the intensity at all compared to how poorly SHIPS has functioned. And it seems to have cost FReeper "raygun" his spot here, too, because he was nearly alone in stating two days ago how badly it was doing, and his adamant statements somehow led to trouble.
It almost appears to me that the way the SHIPS works is to take the worst possible path the hurricane might take in the 1-2-3 cone, and calculate the worst possible intensity. IOW,it's intensity calculations appear to be totally devoid of the BEST expectation of position, and it therefore greatly suffers in comparison with other models that seem to at least attempt to take the position into account.