According to this:
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/intensity1.png
, there is one, and only one intensity model that shows this sucker EVER getting near Cat.1: the by now thoroughly discredited (for this storm) SHIPS.
I can't understand why NHC continues to rely on this for intensity!
PS:By the way, that image changes every few hours. It would be really great if someone could copy it, and put it somewhere that it won't be lost the way all the others from that website have been, that also showed how badly SHIPS fared against any and ALL of the other intensity models.
yikes! access forbidden
It's the bureaucratic mindset. You can't get fired for relying on the models. And given how much the Dems have played politics with hurricanes nowadays, I really can't blame the NHC for being ultra-careful in waiting to make sure Ernesto is gone. Can you imagine the Congressional hearings if they said it was gone, and it blew back up to a Cat 1 with twelve hours notice before hitting Miami? Oh, the huge manatees!
