TS/Hurricane/TS Ernesto

NWS/NHC ^ | 28 August 2006 | NHC

[NautiNurse]

Florida Governor Jeb Bush ordered a state of emergency in advance of Ernesto's anticipated Florida landfall as a hurricane. During his press briefing, Governor Bush emphasized the need to, "Have your family plan in place. Be prepared to be on your own for 72 hours. I know it sounds like a broken record." Jeb then repeated his message in Spanish.

All of the South Florida peninsula and Keys are under a hurricane watch, and portions of the watch areas may be upgraded to hurricane warnings later today.

NASA is moving Space Shuttle Atlantis from the launch pad back to its protective hangar, with the launch postponed until at least Sept. 7-8.

Hurricane Ernesto was downgraded to Tropical Storm status after battering Haiti and the Dominican Republic all day Sunday. The death toll in Haiti from Ernesto currently stands at 1 person; storm reports from Hispaniola are scarce this morning.

Ernesto has approached the eastern portion of Cuba, where the government issued a hurricane warning for six provinces, tourists were evacuated, and baseball games were played earlier Sunday than originally scheduled.

Public Advisories Updated every three hours.

Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours

Three Day Tracking Map

Ernesto Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 3 & 5 day forecast tracks

Buoy Data Florida & Eastern GOM

Hurricane Model Tracks

Storm Surge graphic

Satellite Images

Visible Satellite Still Image

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Additional Resources:

Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Tropical Storm Ernesto I

Hurricane Ernesto

[dirtboy]

Thanks for the kind words. Hopefully Ernesto will soon be either Bahamas bound or oblivion bound.

[STARWISE]

That news needs to get out .. I had no clue.

[1COUNTER-MORTER-68]

Maybe just blow more "BOOTY" up on the Treasure Coast ;0)

[dirtboy]

I think what is left of the circulation will be over water fairly soon, if the 2pm position is accurate. Part of the problem is that the Hurricane Hunters can't fly into the storm now and get a position fix, since it's over Cuba. So the forecasters at the NHC are doing what we are doing - looking at the sat photos and trying to figure out just where the center actually is.

However, since the circulation has gotten so badly beaten up, it will take longer to regenerate. Any signficant convection has been pushed well to the east, so that would take time to wrap back around the center, if it can. And if the trough to the west keeps shearing it and pushing it north for even just a few more hours, re-intensification will be delayed and the track could well stay off the Florida coast - a shift of only 30 miles and it won't make landfall.

[dirtboy]

Sure enough, I found confirmation. What's with that?

Actually, Venezuela is selling their Citgo stations.

[debg]

Then you'll be pleased to know that it is all Citgo stations at the service plazas on Florida's Turnpike ;(

[STARWISE]

I see that in the article link. Do we not have some restrictions on foreign governments owning huge national fuel suppliers?

[Tennessee_Bob]

LOL - thanks for the laugh, I needed it!

[bwteim]

Bonyx says: Onyx is a psychic!

I don't even have to try to *find* my prediction, it is seared in my mind, in fact I will never forget it...

"my money is on a cat 3 between Mary Esther and Navarre"

;)

[dirtboy]

Here is Exhibit A why any tropical cyclone has to be treated as a potential major disaster within 48 hours:

It was "just" a tropical storm entering the Bahamas. Two days later, it was a Cat 5.

That's why anyone in the uncertainty cone for the forecast should not let down their guard until Ernesto is either off to sea or declared dead by the NHC.

[dirtboy]

Do we not have some restrictions on foreign governments owning huge national fuel suppliers?

I dunno. Maybe we should ask BP.

[Howlin]

Why are you on this thread? You've done nothing but muck it up for people who are trying to find out real information.

Knock it off.

[ReignOfError]

Fair enough. It's probably pretty safe to assume that most of the "swimmers" were in fact surfers, because tropical storm conditions aren't exactly conducive to doing laps.

The kid in the creek probably wasn't a surfer, unless pre-teen creek surfing is a new extreme sport I missed, and the 71-year-old ... well, I can't begin to figure what the hell he was thinking.

My impression is wholly subjective, but based on a fair number of observations. A lot of surfers head out to places like Cocoa and New Smyrna when a storm is on the way, because those fat 5' swells aren't easy to come by on the Atlantic coast. There are a lot of kids out there 1-2 days from landfall, but not many 0-1 days out.

Now, the folks who decide to ride out the storm on small craft, they're definitely suffering from more b--ls than brains.

[onyx]

Yes, bonyx --- that was your exact post! We can keep it. More hurricanes will be born off the coast of Africa.

[Bones75]

"I'll probably end up working all day tuesday here in Palm Beach county..."

Me too, I work in southern Palm Beach conty (Boca Raton) and I expect to probably be at work Tuesday and Wednesday too, unless we really get the direct hit. Already during my lunch break today I waited in a line about 30 cars long to fill up with gas, and it's like that everywhere. I can imagine how it's gonna be when I head back down to Ft Lauderdale where I live after work.

[bwteim]

T'was seared in my mind, I tell ya, Onyx, seared in my mind....lol

--bonyx

[onthedancefloort]

The north Atlantic water vapor imagery shows that an exit to the east anytime soon is not very likely.

Note how the trough to Ernesto's right is filling in...I would have to think this is the reasoning as to why they expect Ernesto to left turn?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

With a High building in as well, Ernesto I would think would have a decent chance of strengthening substantially, once it regains the low level circulation. How Long, well it has a pretty substantial out flow intact so I would say that given a turn more to west, 8 hours before it is approaching hurricane status again sounds reasonable, Longer if it stays on this general NNW track.

-t

[bwteim]

Shuuush, we just put him to bed. He's had a busy day.
;)

[jeeperz]

Last I heard the water temp near the Keys is 90 degrees...here in SW FL about 88 or 89 degrees so 90 is probably right.

[clintonh8r]

Shell and BP are also foreign owned.