TS/Hurricane/TS Ernesto

NWS/NHC ^ | 28 August 2006 | NHC

[NautiNurse]

Florida Governor Jeb Bush ordered a state of emergency in advance of Ernesto's anticipated Florida landfall as a hurricane. During his press briefing, Governor Bush emphasized the need to, "Have your family plan in place. Be prepared to be on your own for 72 hours. I know it sounds like a broken record." Jeb then repeated his message in Spanish.

All of the South Florida peninsula and Keys are under a hurricane watch, and portions of the watch areas may be upgraded to hurricane warnings later today.

NASA is moving Space Shuttle Atlantis from the launch pad back to its protective hangar, with the launch postponed until at least Sept. 7-8.

Hurricane Ernesto was downgraded to Tropical Storm status after battering Haiti and the Dominican Republic all day Sunday. The death toll in Haiti from Ernesto currently stands at 1 person; storm reports from Hispaniola are scarce this morning.

Ernesto has approached the eastern portion of Cuba, where the government issued a hurricane warning for six provinces, tourists were evacuated, and baseball games were played earlier Sunday than originally scheduled.

Public Advisories Updated every three hours.

Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours

Three Day Tracking Map

Ernesto Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 3 & 5 day forecast tracks

Buoy Data Florida & Eastern GOM

Hurricane Model Tracks

Storm Surge graphic

Satellite Images

Visible Satellite Still Image

IR Image

WV Image

Additional Resources:

Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Tropical Storm Ernesto I

Hurricane Ernesto

[dirtboy]

I didn't guess.

Yes, you did. All hurricane forecasts are at best guesses. The more you learn about hurricanes, the more you realize it.

[NautiNurse]

Forty lashes with a wet noodle for starting another ear worm.

[dogbyte12]

Well, I am on high ground so that is good. I am actually south of Asheville, up at the top of a hill so not too much run off. At least when the power goes out it won't be 95 with 100% humidity for a week like with Katrina.

[ReignOfError]

Never underestimate the power of ignorance or testosterone when the surf is up along a shoreline.

I don't recall -- and the fault might be with my recollection -- a lot of surfers being killed or seriously injured in major storms. They know they're on the edge, try to read the waves, and are more likely attuned to when it's time to get the hell out of dodge than the folks buttoned up in their homes who think they're safe. Their biggest risk is waiting and cutting the evacuation close, but it's not like they're hanging out there waiting to ride the storm surge in.

[NautiNurse]

Yes, the potential storm track is confusing. Tough call for folks like you who have to make evacuation decisions. New advisory due out soon, then maybe by the 5PM advisory there will be something more dependable.

I never trust a storm that nears the Gulf Stream.

[onyx]

LOL --- then I won't dare mention Dead Man's Curve!

[new yorker 77]

You're just angry because you got it wrong.

Sometimes you have throw out the extrapolated scientific hyperbola and simply use common sense in with some of the science.

The "experts" guessed that the pressure system to the west would go away and allow this storm to track into the Gulf and destroy New Orleans.

I saw the rain east of the Mississippi as part of this pressure system not going anywhere for days.

That meant that Ernesto was going to avoid warmer waters in the Gulf and get deflected into islands that would rip it apart.

Thus achieving its' Sparrow Fart status.

[ReignOfError]

All hurricane forecasts are at best guesses. The more you learn about hurricanes, the more you realize it.

Amen. Every responsible forecaster emphasizes the cone -- not the narrow line -- especially more than 24 hours out. You never know if a butterfly flapped its wings in Tanzania.

While it looks like the storm is moving east, it was the right call not to panic, but to have everyone from Galveston to Charleston ready to move on a couple days' notice (for that matter, everyone on the coast should be ready to evacuate on 48 hours' notice at any time from June to November every year).

[dirtboy]

I never trust a storm that nears the Gulf Stream.

Amen to that. Crossing the Gulf Stream blew Hugo up to a Cat 4 right before landfall in SC.

[Dog Gone]

We're all impressed with how smart you are.

[dirtboy]

You're just angry because you got it wrong.

I predicted yesterday morning it may not get into the Gulf. But I don't go around boasting about it. That's the problem with a couple of posters on these threads - they turn this into a ego trip instead of an informational thread.

[Bloody Sam Roberts]

Sparrow Fart of a Nothing Storm

Nevertheless...it will be enough of a storm to ruin my 20th Anniversary plans for 3 days on the Cape next week. I can sense it. The timing will be perfect.

Oh well. Nothing wrong with spending 3 days inside a luxury suite over looking Hyannis Harbor with the lusty, busty Mrs. B.S. Roberts.

I just hope that the folks in Florida catch a break and get nothing but a wet fart out of this one.

[CindyDawg]

It's like a lottery. Someone is gonna win. Why does it have to be an IRS agent or a guy already rich though, huh?

[ReignOfError]

My dad calls such buildings Third Pig Houses - because the wolf couldn' blow down the third pig's home.

I like that. There are quite a few of those in Florida -- mostly from the days before FEMA and flood insurance, when folks who survived one hurricane took it upon themselves to damn well be prepared for the next.

[bwteim]

NY77:
"HURRICANE ERNESTO - a.k.a. Sparrow Fart of a Nothing Storm"

It is easy to say that after the fact.

[shield]

"Ernesto doesn't even look like a tropical depression on the infrared imagery this afternoon. Gitmo, Cuba never even had TS gusts through this morning and now the pressures throughout Cuba are quite high.

I have NO IDEA how this storm could reach hurricane strength by landfall with Florida, if in fact it does reach Florida.

The cyclonic flow is more or less destroyed, it would take at least 24 hours for this system under THE BEST conditions to make it to 64 knots."

From Meteorologist at:
http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=104351&st=1720

[dirtboy]

2 pm intermediate is out:

They can't get the Hurricane Hunters in there because it's still over Cuba.

Here's what's interesting - comparing this to the sat photos, if that is the actual position of the center, the convection has been all blown well east of it - there is no convection I can see west of 75W.

[NautiNurse]

Swimming/surfing/boating mortality stats during hurricanes are difficult to track. Here are few that were relatively easy to locate:

Two men died in Florida from Katrina when they tried to ride out the storm in their boats. In Florida, two swimmers died in rough surf Rita kicked up on Panhandle beaches. One was a Kentucky man killed at Miramar Beach, and the other an unidentified man who died at Pensacola Beach.

2003: two swimmers in the Florida Panhandle who drowned in the rough surf; and a 10-year-old boy drowned in a rain-swollen creek in North Carolina during TS Bill, a man drowned in a rip current near Cape Hatteras in Hurricane Fabian, a 71-year-old man who drowned off of the Florida Panhandle in surf generated by Claudette.

[abb]

Here's what's interesting - comparing this to the sat photos, if that is the actual position of the center, the convection has been all blown well east of it - there is no convection I can see west of 75W.

That's accurate - the 17:15 pic is now up on the wv loop

[NautiNurse]

Tropical Storm Public Advisory

Statement as of 2:00 PM EDT on August 28, 2006


...Ernesto over eastern Cuba...threat of heavy rains and
flooding continues...


a Hurricane Watch remains in effect from New Smyrna Beach southward
on the Florida East Coast...and from south of Chokoloskee southward
along the West Coast...for Lake Okeechobee...and for all of the
Florida Keys...from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas. A Hurricane
Watch is also in effect for Andros Island...the biminis...and Grand
Bahama Island in the northwestern Bahamas. A Hurricane Watch means
that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch
area...generally within 36 hours.


Hurricane or tropical storm warnings may be required for portions of
the Hurricane Watch areas later today.


A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces
of Guantanamo...Santiago de Cuba...Granma... Holguin...Las
Tunas...and Camaguey.


A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Ragged Island and great
Exuma in the central Bahamas. A Tropical Storm Warning means that
tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
within the next 24 hours.


Interests elsewhere in the central and northwestern Bahamas should
monitor the progress of Ernesto.


For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.


At 200 PM EDT...1800z...the poorly-defined center of Tropical Storm
Ernesto was estimated near latitude 20.7 north...longitude 76.1
west or about 15 miles...25 km...east-southeast of Holguin Cuba.


Ernesto is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph...17 km/hr...and
this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
On this track the center should emerge off the north coast of Cuba
later today or tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...65 km/hr...with higher
gusts in a few squalls. Ernesto is forecast to begin
re-strengthening when the center moves over the waters to the north
of Cuba later today or tonight.


Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km
from the center.


Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb...29.74 inches.


Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches...with possible isolated amounts
of up to 20 inches...are expected over portions of Hispaniola and
central and eastern Cuba. These rains could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mud slides. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches
are possible over the southern Bahamas.


Repeating the 200 PM EDT position...20.7 N...76.1 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds...40 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1007 mb.


The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 500 PM EDT.


$$
Forecaster Pasch