[dirtboy]

I didn't guess.

Yes, you did. All hurricane forecasts are at best guesses. The more you learn about hurricanes, the more you realize it.

[new yorker 77]

You're just angry because you got it wrong.

Sometimes you have throw out the extrapolated scientific hyperbola and simply use common sense in with some of the science.

The "experts" guessed that the pressure system to the west would go away and allow this storm to track into the Gulf and destroy New Orleans.

I saw the rain east of the Mississippi as part of this pressure system not going anywhere for days.

That meant that Ernesto was going to avoid warmer waters in the Gulf and get deflected into islands that would rip it apart.

Thus achieving its' Sparrow Fart status.

[ReignOfError]

All hurricane forecasts are at best guesses. The more you learn about hurricanes, the more you realize it.

Amen. Every responsible forecaster emphasizes the cone -- not the narrow line -- especially more than 24 hours out. You never know if a butterfly flapped its wings in Tanzania.

While it looks like the storm is moving east, it was the right call not to panic, but to have everyone from Galveston to Charleston ready to move on a couple days' notice (for that matter, everyone on the coast should be ready to evacuate on 48 hours' notice at any time from June to November every year).