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The north Atlantic water vapor imagery shows that an exit to the east anytime soon is not very likely.

Note how the trough to Ernesto's right is filling in...I would have to think this is the reasoning as to why they expect Ernesto to left turn?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

With a High building in as well, Ernesto I would think would have a decent chance of strengthening substantially, once it regains the low level circulation. How Long, well it has a pretty substantial out flow intact so I would say that given a turn more to west, 8 hours before it is approaching hurricane status again sounds reasonable, Longer if it stays on this general NNW track.

-t

The north Atlantic water vapor imagery shows that an exit to the east anytime soon is not very likely.

I don't see much eastward movement for a few days either. However, I just don't see what is going to push Ernesto that far west to Florida. The trough that was NW of Ernesto dug down to the west of the storm center and blew the convection away from the center. For a few more hours, the upper-level north winds will prevent Ernesto from moving much to the west.

The forecast trend for several days has been for the track to shift eastwards. Now that the US coast is within the 2-day track instead of the 5-day, the shifts should get less pronounced. But a shift of only 30 miles more to the east will keep Ernesto away from Florida - and the storm seems have moved more NNW than NW over the last 12 hours, so some of that distance has already happened.

I don't think anyone should let their guard down, but the chances look good for a near miss, or even a NNW track through the Bahamas.

The Eastern-Seaboard folks should watch this storm closely.
This storm could hit anywhere up the coast,,It Ain't dead.
Thanks for the link,,the first Hurricane I Watched was
Katrina,,my storm tracker is a ruler ;0)