[dirtboy]

The north Atlantic water vapor imagery shows that an exit to the east anytime soon is not very likely.

I don't see much eastward movement for a few days either. However, I just don't see what is going to push Ernesto that far west to Florida. The trough that was NW of Ernesto dug down to the west of the storm center and blew the convection away from the center. For a few more hours, the upper-level north winds will prevent Ernesto from moving much to the west.

The forecast trend for several days has been for the track to shift eastwards. Now that the US coast is within the 2-day track instead of the 5-day, the shifts should get less pronounced. But a shift of only 30 miles more to the east will keep Ernesto away from Florida - and the storm seems have moved more NNW than NW over the last 12 hours, so some of that distance has already happened.

I don't think anyone should let their guard down, but the chances look good for a near miss, or even a NNW track through the Bahamas.

[abb]

The outflow is more NNW than anything. Doesn't outflow direction indicate the center to follow later, or am I mistaken?

[abb]

woah! gasoline DOWN $.12 on the nymex...

[clintonh8r]

Do these projected tracks assume existing atmospheric conditions, or what they expect the conditions to be in the future?

[onthedancefloort]

As you know the storm will seek out the path of least resistance. It is emerging now off the northern coast of Cuba and really does have a great outflow signature for a storm that had it's lower circulation lifted by the mountains of Hispaniola and Cuba. That is important for it should get caught up then in the westerlies that are present just North of it. Which of course would steer it towards Florida.

I think the models have caught up with it now, and they should handle the system a bit better...!

Keep up the info though Dirtboy, it will be interesting to see what this storm does!

-t