TS/Hurricane/TS Ernesto

NWS/NHC ^ | 28 August 2006 | NHC

[NautiNurse]

Florida Governor Jeb Bush ordered a state of emergency in advance of Ernesto's anticipated Florida landfall as a hurricane. During his press briefing, Governor Bush emphasized the need to, "Have your family plan in place. Be prepared to be on your own for 72 hours. I know it sounds like a broken record." Jeb then repeated his message in Spanish.

All of the South Florida peninsula and Keys are under a hurricane watch, and portions of the watch areas may be upgraded to hurricane warnings later today.

NASA is moving Space Shuttle Atlantis from the launch pad back to its protective hangar, with the launch postponed until at least Sept. 7-8.

Hurricane Ernesto was downgraded to Tropical Storm status after battering Haiti and the Dominican Republic all day Sunday. The death toll in Haiti from Ernesto currently stands at 1 person; storm reports from Hispaniola are scarce this morning.

Ernesto has approached the eastern portion of Cuba, where the government issued a hurricane warning for six provinces, tourists were evacuated, and baseball games were played earlier Sunday than originally scheduled.

Public Advisories Updated every three hours.

Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours

Three Day Tracking Map

Ernesto Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 3 & 5 day forecast tracks

Buoy Data Florida & Eastern GOM

Hurricane Model Tracks

Storm Surge graphic

Satellite Images

Visible Satellite Still Image

IR Image

WV Image

Additional Resources:

Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Tropical Storm Ernesto I

Hurricane Ernesto

[Fawn]

Well...I just spend 40 minutes driving around my lunch hour looking for gas with a line under a quarter mile long!! NOTHING. I also saw many smaller stations yellow taped off...out of gas. This is the first time I will have to use my spare gas at home 2 DAYS BEFORE THE HURRICANE!!

[dirtboy]

I can't see anything that remotely resembles a circulation on any image - visible, IR or water vapor. The water vapor does show a trough blowing right across where the NHC says the center is.

[onyx]

I need to go find my post to you on the locked thread wherein I said Ernie would Peter out waaaaaaaaaay before this other poster made s/h's claim.

[Dog Gone]

Well...I just spend 40 minutes driving around my lunch hour looking for gas with a line under a quarter mile long!! NOTHING. I also saw many smaller stations yellow taped off...out of gas. This is the first time I will have to use my spare gas at home 2 DAYS BEFORE THE HURRICANE!!

Sheesh. I guess it's true. We can't all fill up on the same day.

[1COUNTER-MORTER-68]

IMO~~~ You are doing a Great Job,,Most folks are Too Young
To Remember AUDREY 57' CAT 4 ,,Things not to stand in front
of,,,Choo-Choo Trains and Hurricanes !!!!
Thank You for your work .

[Fawn]

there is no convection I can see west of 75W.

How is that important?

[onyx]

To: bwteim

With fingers crossed, I say it weakens over Castroland and is only a Cat 1 when it hits our shores.

602 posted on 08/26/2006 10:11:55 PM CDT by onyx (1 Billion Muslims -- "if" 10% are fundamentalists, that's still 100 Million who want to kill us.)

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[clintonh8r]

I'm hoping it won't even be a Cat 1, or even a TS!

[onyx]

Me too. Just a nice little rain.

[Tennessee_Bob]

nothing like sweltering in a hot house with wet sticky floors

I don't know - could have had just a foundation slab left. That would be pretty bad.

[Rippin]

Yep, he started out in State College PA on a fun little 15 monite show put on by Penn State Meteorology students and their faculty. He actually wasn't bad on Mid-Atlantic snowstorms. But he often would shoot the moon and call for a chance of a real 'big one' only to have it dud out.

http://www.ems.psu.edu/WeatherWorld/people/bastardi.html

[Orlando]

Looking at the map it look like by 8 PM(EST) it will be back over warm waters ?
It will have @ 24 hours (+/-) over warm waters.
Any body knows what the water temp's are near Key West area(s) ?
thanks

[Fawn]

Well....at least that would give me a good excuse not to go to work all sticky and smelly.

[Sam Cree]

Dirtboy has been consistenly guessing quite accurately, but, unlike some others, he doesn't come off as a conceited ass.

[yield 2 the right]

Southern Atlantic Coast

About CWTG | Temperature Conversion

Water Temperatures in Degrees Fahrenheit
Present Temperatures Last Updated: Mon Aug 28 18:06:26 2006 UTC

Location	Present Temperatures	JAN	FEB	MAR	APR 1-15	APR 16-30	MAY 1-15	MAY 16-31	JUN 1-15	JUN 16-30	JUL 1-15	JUL 16-31	AUG 1-15	AUG 16-31	SEP 1-15	SEP 16-30	OCT 1-15	OCT 16-31	NOV	DEC
Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel, VA	75.9
Virginia Beach VA (44014)	80.6
Cape Hatteras NC	N/A	49	46	52	58	60	68	68	72	75	76	79	80	80	78	75	72	68	58	55
Myrtle Beach SC	N/A	48	50	55	62	66	70	75	77	80	81	83	83	82	81	79	72	67	61	53
Charleston SC	86.7	50	50	57	64	68	71	75	79	80	82	84	84	83	82	79	73	68	63	54
Savannah Beach GA (41008)	85.6	51	52	59	65	69	72	76	79	82	84	86	85	84	83	80	75	70	64	54
Fernandina Beach FL	84.9	55	55	62	68	72	75	78	81	81	83	84	84	84	83	81	76	72	66	58
Jacksonville Beach FL (SAUF1)	84.9	57	56	61	68	71	74	77	80	81	83	84	83	83	83	82	78	72	67	60
Daytona Beach FL (41009)	85.6	61	59	65	70	73	75	78	79	80	80	80	80	81	83	82	79	76	71	65
Stuart Beach FL	N/A	67	66	70	71	74	75	78	79	79	79	79	80	80	81	80	79	77	75	70
Miami Beach FL	N/A	71	73	75	78	78	80	81	84	85	86	86	86	84	84	83	83	79	76	73
Key West FL	88.7	69	70	75	79	79	82	83	86	86	87	87	87	87	86	86	83	80	76	72

[dirtboy]

How is that important?

Convection has to wrap around the center for any signficant intensification. Conversely, if convection is blown away from the center for any prolongued period of time, it can eventually dissapate the system.

[Orlando]

Thanks...

88.7 degrees...
=Fuel, and I am guessing it's hotter near Cuba ?

[STARWISE]

Talking to my friend in the Redlands (and sister Andrew survivor) yesterday, and she told me something I never ever knew: Venezuela owns Citgo. Sure enough, I found confirmation. What's with that?

She also said that during and after Wilma, every Citgo station was open 24/7 from the getgo. They had generators running the stations non-stop. Good thing to remember for any storm, but how shocking that 14,000 Citgo stations are owned and controlled by Hugo the Nasty.

[Fawn]

Thanks. I heard the girl on the newscast say there was only convection on the east side right now....wondered how that worked.

[SE Mom]

I discovered that little factoid last year and haven't bought gas at Citgo since- even though it is the most convenient to my house. Chavez..ppppffffttt...