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Hurricane Ernesto
NWS/NHC ^ | 27 August 2006 | NHC

Posted on 08/27/2006 1:39:35 AM PDT by NautiNurse

Ernesto is rapidly intensifying to near hurricane strength, with heavy rains and flooding possible over much of Hispaniola. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches...with possible isolated amounts of up to 20 inches...are expected over Haiti and the Dominican Republic. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for Jamaica. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Cayman Islands. A tropical storm watch may be required for portions of the Florida Keys later today.

Public Advisories Updated every three hours.

Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours

Three Day Tracking Map

Ernesto Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 3 & 5 day forecast tracks

Buoy Data Caribbean Sea

Buoy Data Florida & Eastern GOM

Hurricane Model Tracks

Storm Surge graphic

Satellite Images

Visible Satellite Still Image

IR Image

WV Image

Additional Resources:

Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible

Tropical Storm Ernesto I


TOPICS: Extended News; Miscellaneous; US: Florida
KEYWORDS: dramaqueen; ernesto; florida; hurricane; hurricaneernesto; notbreakingnews; tropical; tsernesto
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To: NautiNurse

"Off topic--FOX News reporting Centani and Olaf have been released."

Wonderful news! Hooraaaaaaaaaaay!!!


41 posted on 08/27/2006 2:36:37 AM PDT by Mila
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To: Godebert
That link looks more like a hurricane aftermath survival site - lol!
42 posted on 08/27/2006 2:37:06 AM PDT by Caipirabob (Communists... Socialists... Democrats...Traitors... Who can tell the difference?)
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To: dirtboy; dawn53; tiredoflaundry; floriduh voter; MinuteGal
The current 5-day track is absolutely worst case for Tampa Bay

On that note, I have some busy work to do.

43 posted on 08/27/2006 2:38:31 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Leroy Collins and Bill Nelson are both pro-abortion rights candidates)
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To: All
Sorry about that.....wrong link. Here is the correct one:

Swellinfo.com

Requires flash player to view the animated swell map.

44 posted on 08/27/2006 2:39:15 AM PDT by Godebert
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To: NautiNurse

Thank you for the ping!

We need to keep an eye on this rascal.


45 posted on 08/27/2006 2:43:40 AM PDT by Marak
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To: NautiNurse
My 14 yo grandson informed me yesterday that I was the only one one the planet that still used dial=up.

Thanks in advance for all that you do to keep us informed.

Maria
46 posted on 08/27/2006 2:46:35 AM PDT by Coldwater Creek ("Over there, over there, We won't be back 'til it's over Over there.")
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To: mariabush
My 14 yo grandson informed me yesterday that I was the only one one the planet that still used dial=up.

LOL--not even close! My mother also uses dial-up. I have to downscale photos to very low resolution when I send them to her.

47 posted on 08/27/2006 2:52:09 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Leroy Collins and Bill Nelson are both pro-abortion rights candidates)
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To: NautiNurse

Oops, didn't realize there was a new thread already -- just left you a post on the old one, sorry!


48 posted on 08/27/2006 2:54:53 AM PDT by buickmackane
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To: NautiNurse

Dialup... yeesh.

I'd go crazy if I had to return to it. Broadband for 7 years, woo!


49 posted on 08/27/2006 2:55:30 AM PDT by Crazieman (The Democratic Party: Culture of Treason)
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To: dirtboy

The weather channel model that I saw just a little while ago was showing Ernesto could spread out clear to the La. coast as it gets closer to shore on Thursday. Did I read it wrong?

Our children live in the area and we are watching with baited breath.


50 posted on 08/27/2006 2:59:09 AM PDT by Coldwater Creek ("Over there, over there, We won't be back 'til it's over Over there.")
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To: mariabush

"I was the only one one the planet that still used dial=up."



Don't feel alone -- I've been dialup my whole internet life, since the good ol' 2400bps days.

(okay - poverty keeps me here.. better 'n nuttin...)


51 posted on 08/27/2006 2:59:19 AM PDT by Uncle Ike (The most dangerous phrase in the English language: "There oughtta be a law")
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To: NautiNurse

You really need to upgrade. Once you go high speed you will never look back.


52 posted on 08/27/2006 3:00:10 AM PDT by Sprite518
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To: Crazieman

Broadban is not available to some parts of the country, even though they are a just outside large cities.


53 posted on 08/27/2006 3:01:52 AM PDT by Coldwater Creek ("Over there, over there, We won't be back 'til it's over Over there.")
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To: Uncle Ike

Thats my thoughts as well.

Good luck, our children live in your area. I worry, but so far so good.


54 posted on 08/27/2006 3:04:42 AM PDT by Coldwater Creek ("Over there, over there, We won't be back 'til it's over Over there.")
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To: mariabush
The weather channel model that I saw just a little while ago was showing Ernesto could spread out clear to the La. coast as it gets closer to shore on Thursday. Did I read it wrong?

First of all, any more, the Weather Channel is in the hurricane hype business. I would not be surprised if they were warning people in Seattle to keep tuning in to keep an eye on Ernesto.

Second, the latest NHC 5-day forecast puts the westernmost boundary of uncertainty at the FL-AL border, so Louisiana is west of that.

I would not worry about Ernesto impacting your children for now. That could change - 24 hours ago the 5-day had Ernesto's track as Katrina II, it could shift back. But the trend has been for the track to keep shifting eastward - recall that Rita's forecast track kept shifting north and east - it was at one point forecast to go into Matagorda Bay along the central Texas coast and ended up hitting the TX-LA border. It is my experience that once the forecast track starts to shift in a direction, it tends to keep shifting in that general direction, so the weather factors that are making the track shift eastward would have to reverse themselves to make it shift back towards Louisiana.

If anything, it looks like a trough will pull the system to the NE once it reaches 25N, wherever it happens to be at the time.

55 posted on 08/27/2006 3:07:16 AM PDT by dirtboy (This tagline has been photoshopped)
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To: dirtboy

56 posted on 08/27/2006 3:10:37 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Leroy Collins and Bill Nelson are both pro-abortion rights candidates)
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To: Admin Moderator

Admin Moderator does not sleep. Admin Moderator waits.

G'Nite, AM.

:)


57 posted on 08/27/2006 3:10:46 AM PDT by onyx (1 Billion Muslims -- "if" 10% are fundamentalists, that's still 100 Million who want to kill us.)
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To: onyx

Wasn't that a song? The Admin Sleeps Tonight?


58 posted on 08/27/2006 3:11:54 AM PDT by dirtboy (This tagline has been photoshopped)
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To: dirtboy

" The Admin Sleeps Tonight? "

'a-weem-a-wep, a-weem-a-wep'

That one??


59 posted on 08/27/2006 3:13:54 AM PDT by Uncle Ike (The most dangerous phrase in the English language: "There oughtta be a law")
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To: NautiNurse
The good thing is, even a very slight leftward jog over the next 18 hours puts this turkey square into the mountains of far SE Cuba.

And a bit more of a jog puts it north of Cuba. Very slight track movements now will have big impacts on the future track and intensity. I am holding onto hopes that this sucker never makes it into the Gulf.

60 posted on 08/27/2006 3:13:59 AM PDT by dirtboy (This tagline has been photoshopped)
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