Posted on 08/26/2006 8:27:19 PM PDT by HAL9000
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX AT 00Z INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS UNCHANGED AT 997 MB. THE STRONGEST WINDS AT THE 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WERE 56 KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 45 KT AT THE SURFACE. SINCE THE PRESSURE WAS STEADY AND SINCE THE AIRCRAFT MIGHT NOT HAVE MEASURED THE MAXIMUM WIND...AND CONSIDERING 00 UTC DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE A CONSENSUS 3.5 OR 55 KT...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50 KT. SOME VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAD BEEN PULSATING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...BUT RECENTLY IT HAS EXPANDED AND BECOME MORE PERSISTENT NEAR THE CENTER. THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO RETREAT WESTWARD...AND THE RESTRICTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE WEST APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY LESSENING. ANOTHER AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE ERNESTO IN A FEW HOURS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/12...ALTHOUGH WITH ONLY INFRARED IMAGERY THIS REMAINS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...THE VARIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ERNESTO WILL MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL HEADING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE CYCLONE TOWARD AND THEN NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA. AFTER REACHING THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE MODEL TRACKS DIVERGE AS STEERING CURRENTS SLACKEN WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...WITH SOLUTIONS AS FAR WEST AS THE GFDN THAT TAKES ERNESTO TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF...AND AS FAR EAST AS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AS SHOWN BY THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND THE NOGAPS. IN THE MIDDLE BUT SLOWER IS THE GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AND THAT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS NOT MOVED MUCH...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS CHANGED LITTLE AT THESE LONG RANGES AND IS JUST NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS.
A SIGNIFICANT COMPLICATION IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH LAND...PRIMARILY CUBA. IF THE CENTER OF ERNESTO TAKES A PATH JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...IT COULD SPEND QUITE A BIT OF TIME OVER CUBA AND WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY BETWEEN ABOUT 24 AND 48 HOURS FROM NOW. HOWEVER...IF THE CENTER TAKES A PATH FARTHER LEFT IT WOULD SPEND VERY LITTLE TIME OVER CUBA. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME INTERACTION WITH CUBA...BUT IT SHOWS ONLY A SLIGHTLY LESSER INTENSITY OVER THE GULF THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IT IS IMPORTANT...HOWEVER...TO REITERATE THAT ERNESTO COULD BECOME A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
yeah , we're following this
I have been watching the NHS maps ever since TD 5 now Ernesto began to attract attention. The first NHS five day map had the center of the "cone" heading toward Houston yesterday. Each update has plotted the center farther east.
If the eastward projections continue for the next 24 hours look for a map tomorrow showing a hit on Ft. Myers Wednesday AM.
The good news is this track is probably going to change. The bad news is once it gets in the Gulf it's got to hit something.
I'm putting this ashore near Panama City after raking the west coast of Florida from toe to ankle.
This royaly sucks! I live 16 miles west of Panama City, it's currently looking like ground zero. I know it's way too early to be exact, but either way, it still looks like all preparations will be warranted.
BTTT
I don't know what these guys are smoking. If you look at the official NOAA Caribbean satellite loop, Ernesto is at this hour plowing due north into Hispaniola.
Well, I've been wrong before!
Florida gulf coast is going to be on the nasty twelve o'clock to three o'clock quadrant....a very nasty rake indeed.
Thanks for your note.
I know you're having a wonderful vacation.
I love it. When a hurricane threatens Florida people everywhere in the country run out and fill their cars before the price of gas goes up.
Gotta run down to the Chevron station before they get the new prices posted.
Glad to hear it is moving on east as I am almost in the middle of the projected path now.
Still too early to tell intensity or path. Granted, once its in the Gulf somebody's gonna get hit. Let's just pray for some last minute dry band inclusion before it hits. That helped out with Dennis and to a lesser degree, Katrina.
Prayers to all in the Gulf region.
Well, there goes that three-day weekend. Guess I'll have to bring my son and his family down to Orlando.
There is an upper-level low that is just to the west of Ernie. I believe Ernie is suffering from some severe shear because of it.
It may just pretend like it's going north ;)
The low is supposed to move off to the west and allow Ernie to move W/NW again.
Weren't they calling for a high pressure system to build over Southeast Texas a few days ago?
I love it. When a hurricane threatens Florida people everywhere in the country run out and fill their cars before the price of gas goes up.And don't forget to stop and get some plywood while it's still affordable too.
I can see it's complicated. This whole season has been complicated due to the prevalence of "shear". It was dramatically evident in the satellite photos of the first named storm, ummm, "A" something, yeah, Alberto.
You can see the next wrinkle. Global warming has caused a suppresion in hurricane formation due to hyperactive upper level winds! Well, it looks like it! Subjectively, you could see Alberto struggling to make itself into a hurricane. It really seemed that way.
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