Posted on 08/25/2006 1:33:28 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Tropical Storm Ernesto has formed in the Caribbean Sea. Currently, wind shear is providing an adverse environment for development. The tropical system is moving over the open waters of the Eastern Caribbean.
In other NHC news, Max Mayfield has announced his retirement after 34 years working for the NHC. He intends to continue working through the 2006 hurricane season. "I'm tired," he said with a smile.
Public Advisories Updated every six hours until landfall threat, then at least every three hours.
Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours
Buoy Data Caribbean Sea
Storm Surge graphic
Satellite Images
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
This thread will give you the best info on the storms progress!
We're baaaaack...and open for business.
Thanks for your invaluable service! I think I'll wait until Texas is threatened before I get too excited.
The stores were jammed. empty spaces in the shelves --- she said everyone must have left work to go to the store --- their weather reports are predicting it will split (shear apart) as it travels west. Time will tell.
I actually sat down and did a study in 2004 for the hurricane season and got a trial Accuweather web account so I could go through Bastardi's columns...
He forecast tropical development basically every two days - and even during periods of weeks where nothing forms.
I realize that for some strange reason people feel an emotional bond with him - I think it's that's he's not good looking and not slick, yet enthusiastic - but I really hope to get across to people that Bastardi is selling snake oil and AccuWeather is a deceptive and often incompetent organization, more concerned with publicity than accurate forecasting.
Well on a serious note I hope this blows away and doesn't turn into a hurricane!
Looks like it will miss us. I hope.....
susie
I'm with you .... we need rain so desperately, but I don't want anyone else hurt.
If a foot of rain fell today in North Texas, these bare, desolate pastures would soak it all up and, maybe, fill up the bone-dry stock tanks.
Even my prickly pear is wilted. That's drought.
Maybe just a persistent tropical storm that moves all the way up to the Red River?
If it survives and enters the Gulf, all kinds of bad things happen.
I think it's 50/50 at best whether the system survives another day. Unfortunately, if it survives another day, conditions begin improving a lot for rapid intensification.
Definitely good timing.
I posted this on the other thread which is now basically obsolete:
The dry air isn't as much of a problem as the shear. It's just getting creamed in the NW quadrant. The vapor loop displays the problem perfectly.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html
It's really hard to predict shear. It's much easier to observe it. If Ernesto moves faster than the upper level low, it's going to get thoroughly decapitated and may not be able to regenerate.
The upper level low is moving west. I don't know what to predict. I guess I hoping for a decapitation, because if Ernesto survives, it looks like an upper Texas storm and I'm upper Texas coast.
There you go...I just wish that Ernesto would do that...
Like you...I never want a hurricane to hit the gulf or the east...but, if our rain NEEDS a tropical depression in the gulf...I think we can pray for THAT.
We've been frying here in S. Central Texas. Maybe the hottest August on record. I hate to think what it might do to coastal communities but, anything to help break this heatwave would be appreciated.
Well, crap
Ouch.
Forecast shear late in the period is very minimal.
If you look at all the conditions in the Gulf, it's practically perfect for rapid intensification.
The problem was getting there intact. I had practically convinced myself that the shear was going to make Ernesto, "Chris II."
There's no hint of that possibility in the NHC discussion, even though the center lost all its convection.
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