Posted on 08/25/2006 1:33:28 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Tropical Storm Ernesto has formed in the Caribbean Sea. Currently, wind shear is providing an adverse environment for development. The tropical system is moving over the open waters of the Eastern Caribbean.
In other NHC news, Max Mayfield has announced his retirement after 34 years working for the NHC. He intends to continue working through the 2006 hurricane season. "I'm tired," he said with a smile.
Public Advisories Updated every six hours until landfall threat, then at least every three hours.
Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours
Buoy Data Caribbean Sea
Storm Surge graphic
Satellite Images
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Yes, thank goodness, it does look good for us, and adding my prayers to yours. :O)
I'll keep your daughter in my prayers.
I think if you have lack of shear, you get a Cat 3. If you get both lack of shear AND deep warm water, you get a Katrina or Rita or Opal - Opal bombed out when it passed over the Loop Current and went from 90 mph to 155 mph overnight.
They keep rehashing Hurricane Katrina!
It's been slow this year, so far..
ya never know if this one goes PrimeTime ..
Mayor Nagin shouldn't go too 'Rovian' about now, or he may get Part Deux.
Thank you. She's ready this time and FULLY insured.
The GOM is one of the area of the Atlantic that is running about as warm as last year, maybe a touch cooler... then there is a massive warm anomaly off the northeast, but that doesn't mean as much right now (obviously).
anomaly map:
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/NCODA/US058VMET-GIFwxg.NCODA.glbl_sstanomaly.gif
heat potential is very high in the loop current:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2006235go.jpg
sst map:
https://128.160.23.54/products/K10/caribbeank10.gif
I figured we would be tracking at least one or two big GOM storms this year. I think this GOM favored pattern we are in is a multi-year one within the increased activity pattern that could last decades.
After Chris, it's too soon to proclaim this will be a biggy, but if it makes it into the Gulf... it probably will be.
Jim Cantore is probably on his way to the Keys as we speak! :-)
Yeah, but sooner or later I have to go home.
At least I'm not in Florida where I was last week.
That's good! :-)
I just remembered. It was Flyer who last year said he was going to stay up all night when Rita hit. He agreed to call my cell and wake me up if she turned a bit and headed my way.
That guy had a big heart.
Damn.
Tell her I said it's time for her to move.
We're too old to be worried about her all the time!
Really only 12 hours of shear left and the convection is moving closer to the exposed center - and the pressure dropped a millibar during the recon flight this afternoon.
Unlikely it's torn apart.
I heard them say Max is retiring in January.
Probably too much politics for him.
I remember now. He was on the storm threads:')
Hiya TOL. Good to see ya'.
Backatcha! :-)
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 25, 2006
reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter indicate that
Tropical Depression Five has strengthened into Tropical Storm
Ernesto. The aircraft found 48 kt winds at a flight level of 1000
ft about 40 N mi northeast of the center...along with a minimum
central pressure of 1004 mb. This wind would normally support a 40
kt intensity. However...the center was completely exposed at that
time...and the 48 kt winds were not in significant convection.
Thus...the initial intensity is set to a more conservative 35 kt in
agreement with satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.
The exposed center is to the north of the previous track...and the
new initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 285/14. Otherwise...
there is little change in the forecast philosophy or the track
forecast for the first 72 hr. Ernesto is south of a low/mid-level
ridge over the western Atlantic...which should keep the system
moving generally west-northwestward. Model guidance supports this
scenario with a tight clustering of tracks through the northwestern
Caribbean and the western end of Cuba...with the exception of the
GFDL which continues to call for a track over the length of Cuba.
Some spread appears in the guidance after 72 hr...with the GFS
building the ridge across the Gulf of Mexico enough to turn Ernesto
westward...while the ECMWF and Canadian models having enough of a
weakness for the cyclone to turn northward. The UKMET forecasts a
continued west-northwestward motion through 120 hr...while the
NOGAPS stalls Ernesto over the central Gulf of Mexico. The new
forecast track is north of...but parallel to...the previous track
for the first 72 hr based on the new position and motion. It then
calls for a slower northwestward motion over the Gulf of Mexico in
response to the guidance spread.
Satellite imagery still shows upper-level southwesterly flow just
northwest of Ernesto. This suggests that the current shear will
continue for another 12 hr or so...with transient bursts of strong
convection likely. After that...the large-scale models all
forecast an upper-level ridge or anticyclone to build over the
northwestern Caribbean. While there are differences in the
details...particularly in the exact position of the anticyclone and
a southward-moving cyclonic shear axis on its north side...the
shear is likely to decrease enough to allow Ernesto to strengthen.
The intensity forecast thus calls for slow strengthening for the
first 24-36 hr...with somewhat faster strengthening thereafter.
The new forecast calls for more strengthening over the Gulf of
Mexico than previously forecast due to the forecast upper-level
winds at 96 and 120 hr. Although the SHIPS and superensemble
guidance calls for little change in strength after 96 hr...there is
a chance that Ernesto could be much stronger than currently
forecast over the Gulf of Mexico.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 25/2100z 14.3n 67.6w 35 kt
12hr VT 26/0600z 15.0n 69.7w 35 kt
24hr VT 26/1800z 16.0n 72.2w 40 kt
36hr VT 27/0600z 17.0n 74.7w 45 kt
48hr VT 27/1800z 18.0n 77.2w 55 kt...over Jamaica
72hr VT 28/1800z 20.5n 82.0w 65 kt...over water
96hr VT 29/1800z 23.0n 85.5w 70 kt
120hr VT 30/1800z 24.5n 88.0w 75 kt
Look here.
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