Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Tropical Storm Ernesto
NWS/NHC ^ | August 25, 2006 | NHC

Posted on 08/25/2006 1:33:28 PM PDT by NautiNurse

Tropical Storm Ernesto has formed in the Caribbean Sea. Currently, wind shear is providing an adverse environment for development. The tropical system is moving over the open waters of the Eastern Caribbean.

In other NHC news, Max Mayfield has announced his retirement after 34 years working for the NHC. He intends to continue working through the 2006 hurricane season. "I'm tired," he said with a smile.

Public Advisories Updated every six hours until landfall threat, then at least every three hours.

Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours

Three Day Tracking Map

Storm Track Archive

Buoy Data Caribbean Sea

Hurricane Model Tracks

Storm Surge graphic

Satellite Images

Visible Satellite Still Image

IR Image

WV Image

Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible


TOPICS: Extended News; Miscellaneous
KEYWORDS: d; ernesto; hurricane; hurricaneseason2006; tropical; tropicalstorm; weather
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-6061-80 ... 661-668 next last
To: tiredoflaundry
"So far that track looks good for us, but Prayers for all in the storms path! "

Yes, thank goodness, it does look good for us, and adding my prayers to yours. :O)

21 posted on 08/25/2006 1:44:11 PM PDT by CremeSaver (Weeki Wachee, FL)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: onyx

I'll keep your daughter in my prayers.


22 posted on 08/25/2006 1:45:17 PM PDT by tiredoflaundry (Tampa Bay, Florida)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: Strategerist
really upper level conditions are more important than sea surface temps.

I think if you have lack of shear, you get a Cat 3. If you get both lack of shear AND deep warm water, you get a Katrina or Rita or Opal - Opal bombed out when it passed over the Loop Current and went from 90 mph to 155 mph overnight.

23 posted on 08/25/2006 1:46:22 PM PDT by dirtboy (This tagline has been photoshopped)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

To: areafiftyone

They keep rehashing Hurricane Katrina!


It's been slow this year, so far..

ya never know if this one goes PrimeTime ..

Mayor Nagin shouldn't go too 'Rovian' about now, or he may get Part Deux.


24 posted on 08/25/2006 1:46:36 PM PDT by NormsRevenge (Semper Fi ......Help the "Pendleton 8' and families -- http://www.freerepublic.com/~normsrevenge/)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: tiredoflaundry


Thank you. She's ready this time and FULLY insured.


25 posted on 08/25/2006 1:46:43 PM PDT by onyx (1 Billion Muslims -- "if" only 10% are radical, that's 100 Million who want to kill us.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 22 | View Replies]

To: dirtboy

The GOM is one of the area of the Atlantic that is running about as warm as last year, maybe a touch cooler... then there is a massive warm anomaly off the northeast, but that doesn't mean as much right now (obviously).

anomaly map:
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/NCODA/US058VMET-GIFwxg.NCODA.glbl_sstanomaly.gif

heat potential is very high in the loop current:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2006235go.jpg

sst map:
https://128.160.23.54/products/K10/caribbeank10.gif

I figured we would be tracking at least one or two big GOM storms this year. I think this GOM favored pattern we are in is a multi-year one within the increased activity pattern that could last decades.

After Chris, it's too soon to proclaim this will be a biggy, but if it makes it into the Gulf... it probably will be.


26 posted on 08/25/2006 1:49:10 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: NautiNurse
Moving into very unfavorable environment...will most likely get torn apart...by the winds...along with an upper level low.
27 posted on 08/25/2006 1:49:25 PM PDT by shield (A wise man's heart is at his RIGHT hand; but a fool's heart at his LEFT. Ecc 10:2)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: areafiftyone
Did you alert the "Weather Channel"? They've been very RONELY lately! They keep rehashing Hurricane Katrina!

Jim Cantore is probably on his way to the Keys as we speak! :-)

28 posted on 08/25/2006 1:49:32 PM PDT by NotJustAnotherPrettyFace
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: NautiNurse

Yeah, but sooner or later I have to go home.

At least I'm not in Florida where I was last week.


29 posted on 08/25/2006 1:49:33 PM PDT by Howlin (Pres.Bush ought to be ashamed of himself for allowing foreign countries right on our borders!!~~Zook)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: onyx

That's good! :-)


30 posted on 08/25/2006 1:49:47 PM PDT by tiredoflaundry (Tampa Bay, Florida)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

To: Txsleuth; humblegunner

I just remembered. It was Flyer who last year said he was going to stay up all night when Rita hit. He agreed to call my cell and wake me up if she turned a bit and headed my way.

That guy had a big heart.

Damn.


31 posted on 08/25/2006 1:50:20 PM PDT by Michael Goldsberry (Lt. Bruce C. Fryar USN 01-02-70 Laos)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]

To: onyx

Tell her I said it's time for her to move.

We're too old to be worried about her all the time!


32 posted on 08/25/2006 1:50:22 PM PDT by Howlin (Pres.Bush ought to be ashamed of himself for allowing foreign countries right on our borders!!~~Zook)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: shield
Moving into very unfavorable environment...will most likely get torn apart...by the winds...along with an upper level low.

Really only 12 hours of shear left and the convection is moving closer to the exposed center - and the pressure dropped a millibar during the recon flight this afternoon.

Unlikely it's torn apart.

33 posted on 08/25/2006 1:51:11 PM PDT by Strategerist
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies]

To: nwctwx

I heard them say Max is retiring in January.

Probably too much politics for him.


34 posted on 08/25/2006 1:51:39 PM PDT by Howlin (Pres.Bush ought to be ashamed of himself for allowing foreign countries right on our borders!!~~Zook)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 26 | View Replies]

To: Michael Goldsberry

I remember now. He was on the storm threads:')


35 posted on 08/25/2006 1:52:34 PM PDT by CindyDawg
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 31 | View Replies]

To: tiredoflaundry

Hiya TOL. Good to see ya'.


36 posted on 08/25/2006 1:52:46 PM PDT by Michael Goldsberry (Lt. Bruce C. Fryar USN 01-02-70 Laos)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 30 | View Replies]

To: Michael Goldsberry

Backatcha! :-)


37 posted on 08/25/2006 1:53:26 PM PDT by tiredoflaundry (Tampa Bay, Florida)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 36 | View Replies]

To: Howlin; dirtboy; Dog Gone; NautiNurse
Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 5

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 25, 2006


reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter indicate that
Tropical Depression Five has strengthened into Tropical Storm
Ernesto. The aircraft found 48 kt winds at a flight level of 1000
ft about 40 N mi northeast of the center...along with a minimum
central pressure of 1004 mb. This wind would normally support a 40
kt intensity. However...the center was completely exposed at that
time...and the 48 kt winds were not in significant convection.
Thus...the initial intensity is set to a more conservative 35 kt in
agreement with satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.

The exposed center is to the north of the previous track...and the
new initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 285/14. Otherwise...
there is little change in the forecast philosophy or the track
forecast for the first 72 hr. Ernesto is south of a low/mid-level
ridge over the western Atlantic...which should keep the system
moving generally west-northwestward. Model guidance supports this
scenario with a tight clustering of tracks through the northwestern
Caribbean and the western end of Cuba...with the exception of the
GFDL which continues to call for a track over the length of Cuba.
Some spread appears in the guidance after 72 hr...with the GFS
building the ridge across the Gulf of Mexico enough to turn Ernesto
westward...while the ECMWF and Canadian models having enough of a
weakness for the cyclone to turn northward. The UKMET forecasts a
continued west-northwestward motion through 120 hr...while the
NOGAPS stalls Ernesto over the central Gulf of Mexico. The new
forecast track is north of...but parallel to...the previous track
for the first 72 hr based on the new position and motion. It then
calls for a slower northwestward motion over the Gulf of Mexico in
response to the guidance spread.


Satellite imagery still shows upper-level southwesterly flow just
northwest of Ernesto. This suggests that the current shear will
continue for another 12 hr or so...with transient bursts of strong
convection likely. After that...the large-scale models all
forecast an upper-level ridge or anticyclone to build over the
northwestern Caribbean. While there are differences in the
details...particularly in the exact position of the anticyclone and
a southward-moving cyclonic shear axis on its north side...the
shear is likely to decrease enough to allow Ernesto to strengthen.
The intensity forecast thus calls for slow strengthening for the
first 24-36 hr...with somewhat faster strengthening thereafter.
The new forecast calls for more strengthening over the Gulf of
Mexico than previously forecast due to the forecast upper-level
winds at 96 and 120 hr. Although the SHIPS and superensemble
guidance calls for little change in strength after 96 hr...there is
a chance that Ernesto could be much stronger than currently
forecast over the Gulf of Mexico.


Forecast positions and Max winds


initial 25/2100z 14.3n 67.6w 35 kt
12hr VT 26/0600z 15.0n 69.7w 35 kt
24hr VT 26/1800z 16.0n 72.2w 40 kt
36hr VT 27/0600z 17.0n 74.7w 45 kt
48hr VT 27/1800z 18.0n 77.2w 55 kt...over Jamaica
72hr VT 28/1800z 20.5n 82.0w 65 kt...over water
96hr VT 29/1800z 23.0n 85.5w 70 kt
120hr VT 30/1800z 24.5n 88.0w 75 kt

38 posted on 08/25/2006 1:53:55 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 34 | View Replies]

To: NautiNurse; JulieRNR21
My Uncle just got moved back into his home in Biloxi..I just got off the phone with him....He is not that happy with this storm...It looks like we may not be in its path as this time but for those of you who may have been in Katrina path my prayers and thoughts go out to you....I hope that I am wrong and it does shear off before it gets to the gulf...It does not look like that is going to be the case...It has been a long road for him getting his home repaired and moving in....Fighting with the insurance companies and all the red tape he has had to jump through...One thing for sure he has all the needed insurance this time....He is in his seventies and I hope that he does not have to endure another one..I was watching Fox when Joe from ac cu weather came on...He is concerned about some storms off the east coast of Florida...He said they could become a home grown storm and needed to be watched....
39 posted on 08/25/2006 1:54:01 PM PDT by RNO1 (POW's Never Ever Have A Good Day)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: SirEdward

Look here.


40 posted on 08/25/2006 1:55:45 PM PDT by CindyDawg
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 36 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-6061-80 ... 661-668 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson