Posted on 08/21/2006 3:04:55 PM PDT by DallasJ7
In an election for the United States Senate in Virginia today, 8/21/06, incumbent Republican George Allen edges Democrat challenger James Webb 48% to 45%, according to an exclusive SurveyUSA poll conducted for W*USA-TV in Washington, DC.
Since an identical SurveyUSA poll released 6/28/06, Allen has lost 8 points and Webb has gained 8 points. Allen's lead has shrunk from 19 points to 3 points.
Interviewing for this poll began 8/18/06, one week after Allen singled out a Webb campaign worker at an Allen rally. Allen has lost support across all demographic groups, but in particular, among younger voters. He has gone from Plus 23 to Minus 17, a swing of 40 points. In Southeastern VA, Allen has gone from a 2:1 lead to a tie, a 31-point swing.
Those who support Ballot Question 1, defining marriage in Virginia as between one man and one woman, vote for Allen by 39 points. Those who oppose Question 1 vote for Webb by 64 points. The election is in 11 weeks, on 11/7/06.
The Republicans have a 10-seat majority in the U.S. Senate. Allen's seat had been considered safely Republican, and Allen himself had been widely considered to be a Republican candidate for President of the United States in 2008.
Marriage Amendment Passes 2:1. In an election in Virginia today, 8/21/06, Question 1, which amends the Virginia Bill of Rights to define marriage in Virginia as between one man and one woman, passes with 65% "Yes" to 34% "No", according to an exclusive SurveyUSA poll conducted for W*USA-TV Washington DC. Republicans support the Amendment 8:1. Democrats oppose the Amendment 5:4. Independents support it 3:2. 92% of Conservatives vote "Yes." 29% of Liberals vote "Yes." Those who approve of President Bush's job performance support the Amendment 9:1. Those who disapprove of Bush oppose the Amendment. The Amendment is supported by 89% of Allen voters but by only 39% of Webb voters.
The following is the result of what 567 "likely voters" said they would vote:
If the election for United States Senator were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican George Allen? Democrat Jim Webb? Independent Green Gail Parker Or some other candidate?
48% Allen (R)
45% Webb (D)
2% Parker (IG)
5% Undecided
Question 1 amends the Virginia Bill of Rights to say the following: that only a union between one man and one woman may be a marriage valid in or recognized by this Commonwealth and its political subdivisions. In an election today, would you vote yes or no on Question 1?
65% Yes
34% No
1% Undecided
Nice to see someone else reading "breach of trust" by dr tom and seeing newt for the ineffective leader that he is. Everytime i tell a newt supporter to read it they just say bleh it doesn't mean anything. Tom Coburn is hardly some rino with a vendetta here.
As to the rinos being unelectable, i think mccain would be a disaster. Think johnson gold water all over again. The media would turn on mccain the minute he got the nomination and paint him as a crazy nut who isn't to be trusted with the nuclear trigger.
Rudy is riding high now, but his hero image won't last a bitter primary.
You'd be a little surprised if you looked at romneys electoral history in massachusets. He ran as a lincoln chafee clone and urinated all over social conservatism and the gop at the time.
Or Mataponiaca...
Without question, Coburn is the most principled politician I have seen in my lifetime. If we could clone him about 60 times in the Senate, most of our problems there would be over.
As to the rinos being unelectable, i think mccain would be a disaster. Think johnson gold water all over again. The media would turn on mccain the minute he got the nomination and paint him as a crazy nut who isn't to be trusted with the nuclear trigger.
For once, the MSM would be right :-)
Rudy is riding high now, but his hero image won't last a bitter primary.
Agreed - the sooner we can move past the MSM headline grabbers and start examining and promoting the candidates who actually have a chance of surviving a GOP primary, the better.
Stay tuned. I doubt you will find a candidate wholly satisfactory to you in the hunt in the 2008 GOP primary. Such is life.
Proud to say Coburn hails from my state and Congressional district and we in a heavily-Democratic district (due to Native American populations) elected him to the House three times. There is something about him that inspires confidence.
Either that, or a working knowledge of French North-African racial epithets, something George Allen couldn't possibly have unless his mother were a French North-African... but wait. Allen very clearly screwed up, but it's still early in the race and he has a huge cash advantage in a Republican state.
Oh, I definitely agree with you now, no need to rub it in. :) SUSA's methodology is, IMO, the best suited to conduct the rather weird turnout world of a "primary", so I've not been surprised at their successfulness this year in that regard.
About the whole Dems v. GOP in sample thingy, it is only natural that we see something like this occurring based on SUSA methodology. You see, if GOP voters are demoralized (as they probably are based on the "macaca" incident), they are much less likely to make it past the LV screen that SUSA uses than they would normally. Also, it is likely to see some of them slip into Independent party ID (and Indys into Dem party ID), but I don't see that happening much in the internals.
Remember, SUSA does not "weight" polls like a John Zogby or (more reputably) the WSJ/NBC poll of Peter Hart and the other guy (who I forget, does). Unweighted polls (like Gallup for the most famous example) tend to have striking variance in terms of party ID, so this shifting is somewhat normal, it just needs to be understood in the realm of context with which the poll was done. It also does not mean, as is commonly assumed by people who don't want to believe poll results, that the pollsters are adding or subtracting from their Democrats or Republicans to influence the results.
My own personal opinion is that by looking at the two most recent polls and adding in the factors above, plus the usual summer polling bias we see in July/August, and my guess would be that Allen has probably lessened a 11%-13% lead to a 5%-7% lead after all of this.
The real question is, will Webb start receiving more than third-tier fundraising? And is the DSCC going to start sending him money any time soon? Because with an Allen-type warchest, Webb's going to need to get some serious attacking/name-recognition time soon to make sure that he can use the "macaca" blunder to full effect to make him truly competitive come September and October. Otherwise, people will start to forget about it, and the money differential will become of greater importance.
meant to flag.
An intelligent post, and it makes sense to me. Thanks.
I should add, however, that Wallace's exit has moved TX-22, in my evaluation, from bordering on Safe Dem to where I'm now inclined to rate it a strong Lean Dem. I'd put it at #1 in the rankings in any case.
I think we all splice and dissect the words of candidates we don't like. This is especially true for the liberal MSM who will try to make a mountain out of a mole hill every time if the candidate is a conservative. You cannot control your speech 100% of the time in public venues. I for one would not vote for a "perfect" individual to be senator, governor or president. We all make mistakes in verbalizing. It is very wrong to make too much ado about insignificant slips of the tongue. I liked another post by someone who said "Allen should just have quipped 'Hey that's a name my mother used to call me when I did something bad'."
I'd love to be added to your ping list. And yes, I pretty much agree with that assessment. This put a Gibbs victory within the realm of possibility, but Lampson still has a not insignificant advantage.
George Allen really put his foot his mouth. That being said, he has time to recover and James Webb is a second-tier candidate.
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