Oh, I definitely agree with you now, no need to rub it in. :) SUSA's methodology is, IMO, the best suited to conduct the rather weird turnout world of a "primary", so I've not been surprised at their successfulness this year in that regard.
About the whole Dems v. GOP in sample thingy, it is only natural that we see something like this occurring based on SUSA methodology. You see, if GOP voters are demoralized (as they probably are based on the "macaca" incident), they are much less likely to make it past the LV screen that SUSA uses than they would normally. Also, it is likely to see some of them slip into Independent party ID (and Indys into Dem party ID), but I don't see that happening much in the internals.
Remember, SUSA does not "weight" polls like a John Zogby or (more reputably) the WSJ/NBC poll of Peter Hart and the other guy (who I forget, does). Unweighted polls (like Gallup for the most famous example) tend to have striking variance in terms of party ID, so this shifting is somewhat normal, it just needs to be understood in the realm of context with which the poll was done. It also does not mean, as is commonly assumed by people who don't want to believe poll results, that the pollsters are adding or subtracting from their Democrats or Republicans to influence the results.
My own personal opinion is that by looking at the two most recent polls and adding in the factors above, plus the usual summer polling bias we see in July/August, and my guess would be that Allen has probably lessened a 11%-13% lead to a 5%-7% lead after all of this.
The real question is, will Webb start receiving more than third-tier fundraising? And is the DSCC going to start sending him money any time soon? Because with an Allen-type warchest, Webb's going to need to get some serious attacking/name-recognition time soon to make sure that he can use the "macaca" blunder to full effect to make him truly competitive come September and October. Otherwise, people will start to forget about it, and the money differential will become of greater importance.
meant to flag.
An intelligent post, and it makes sense to me. Thanks.