Posted on 08/11/2006 9:53:37 AM PDT by demlosers
The most recent Rasmussen Reports election poll in Montana shows incumbent Republican Senator Conrad Burns and Democrat Jon Tester tied at 47% (see crosstabs). This month’s results mark an improvement for Burns, who trailed Tester by seven points in last month’s poll and by four points in May.
Tester's support among fellow Democrats has slipped from 90% to 84%. Burns now gets 14% of the vote from Democrats, up from 7% a month ago.
The race had been leaning towards the Democrats, but Rasmussen Reports now rates it as a toss up.
Last fall, Burns had a double digit lead in our inaugural poll on this race. However, as the Abramoff scandal unfolded, his lead disappeared by January. Since then, the Montana Senator has been considered one of the nation’s most vulnerable incumbents (although never quite in as much trouble as Pennsylvania’s Rick Santorum).
Though Burns has rebounded in the most recent poll, 35% of voters report having a “very unfavorable” opinion of the sitting senator. Just 17% who have a “very favorable” opinion of him. Overall, a slight majority have at least a somewhat unfavorable opinion of Burns. If he survives this race, it may have little to do with the Senator himself. This could be an instance where an unpopular candidate is carried to victory by the state’s Republican leanings and a preference for GOP control of the Senate.
Tester, on the other hand, is viewed favorably by 54% of voters and unfavorably by 41%. Those figures include 24% with have a “very favorable” opinion of the Democratic farmer and 17% with a “very unfavorable” opinion.
While Burns wants to distance himself from the long shadow of the Jack Abramoff scandal, just 13% of voters now say that government corruption is the top issue on their minds this campaign season.
Twice as many, 27%, name the economy as issue number one. Tester has a modest advantage over Burns among those concerned about the economy and a big advantage among those concerned primarily about the War in Iraq.
Burns has a big advantage among those concerned about immigration and national security.
Burns made news again last week for a heated exchange he had with a group of firefighters in a Montana airport. Burns reportedly criticized the group in front of witnesses for what he considered a poor job in containing recent wildfires in the state. Following the encounter, Team Burns focused on damage control and issued apologies; Tester took the opportunity to issue a statement in support of firefighters.
Montana’s voters are nearly evenly divided on their opinion of President Bush: 50% approve of his job performance and 49% disapprove (39% strongly so.) Governor Brian Schweitzer (D), on the other hand, remains popular with his constituents. Seventy-three percent (73%) of those surveyed approve of their governor’s job performance.
Crosstabs are available for Premium Members.
Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2006 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a mid-term election. We update the President's Job Approval Ratings daily and are polling every Senate and Governor's race at least once a month in 2006.
Rasmussen Reports was the nation's most accurate polling firm during the Presidential election and the only one to project both Bush and Kerry's vote total within half a percentage point of the actual outcome.
During Election 2004, RasmussenReports.com was also the top-ranked public opinion research site on the web. We had twice as many visitors as our nearest competitor and nearly as many as all competitors combined.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade. The telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports August 8, 2006. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. (see Methodology)
Is this a recent trend? With the news that young middle-eastern men were heading for Montana, could that fact have slapped some sense into complacent Montana voters? Just curious...
What happened to all the gloom and doom? lose the house... loose the senate?
I say repubs pick up 1 net in house and 1 net in senate
But according to this poll, it should give a boost to Burns' election campaign:
"Burns has a big advantage among those concerned about immigration and national security."
I can't wait until the real polls happen on Election Day. I can't believe these stupid polls. Regardless if they are on our side or not. I don't believe any of them.
I guess they are turning on Testercle.
but,
2) I told you so. I told everyone that Burns and Talent and DeWine would all win, that the only real "at risk" seat was Santorum. Unfortunately, I must add Chafee, who is an idiot in addition to being a RINO.
On the positive front, I think we'll pick up MN, and either NJ or WA. If somehow we get all three, and both Santorum and Chafee hold on, there will be suicide in the Dem ranks the day after the election.
He's been running ads. It's going to be a very tough race.
A schadenfreude moment with a visit to DU on election day.
"I can't wait until the real polls happen on Election Day. I can't believe these stupid polls. Regardless if they are on our side or not. I don't believe any of them."
What any individual citizen thinks of polls is pretty irrelevant. Every national polititican and most politicians running for statewide offices hire polling firms to assess where a candidate stands in the run up to the election. Public opinion polling science has become incredibly sophisticated over the last forty years. So much so that in the 2004 Presidential election, of 22 national polling organizations, only 2 fell outside of a three point margin of error in correctly predicting the final outcome of the election and several came within 1 point of the actual final outcome.
When the polls are positive for one's candidates, we love the polls, when they are negative for our boys and girls, we hate the polls. That's human nature.
Some folks only want to know the final score, others enjoy watching the whole game.
Never underestimate the power of incumbency.
....well Burns is right on the issues for sure, but my brother in law has run campaigns in Montana and while he agrees with Burns on the issues, does say that is is somewhat of a jackass....pompous, arrogant and infused with the Abramhoff thing....however...he said he would still vote for him since he does vote 100% Repub....
Not to mention the bonus of Charlie Rangel quitting if the Pubbies hold the House.
The RNC had some great ads about Tester.
"Tester thinks you're rich. He thinks you're a gravy train with biscuit wheels."
I really hope my beloved Montana does not turn blue. I'm more optimistic now. The Montana republicans really need to pull their heads out of their rears though.
agreed.......where are you in MT....my fiancee' who is coming to Calif...or we might live in Reno lives in Helena but grew up and lived in Great Falls all her life...Brothers in Missoula and one develops land where their family owns like 10 million worth up in Flat Head lake....
It's the War on Islamofascism, stupid!
That was not directed at you demlosers. It's a play on Carvile's refrain in 1992, it's the economy, stupid.
The GOP could easily still lose Senate seats. The fact that MONTANTA wants to vote Democrat is EXTREMELY WORRISOME. MONTANA!!!!! A state with five people in it wants to vote Democrat. I don't think we will lose the Senate, but we could end up where we were a couple years ago and have a majority in name only.
Tell that to Lieberman.
BTW, my wife has promised to bake a big cake, draped in creche, when Teddy K dies.
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