I have no doubt, no doubt whatsoever, that the entire diplomatic kabukki dance has been a ruse. Maybe Israel needed more time for something. Maybe Bush felt like he and Tony needed the cover of TRYING the U.N. route. Or maybe the delay had something to do with yesterday's bomb plot.
But I am certain that unleashing Israel on the Hezbos was the end game all along. (the only question is whether France was in on it or did they get duped by Bolton/Bush/Blair/Rice?)
I have felt that all along.
Diplomats seek to end Mideast conflict
By PAUL BURKHARDT, Associated Press Writer
UNITED NATIONS - Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and other senior diplomats scrambled Friday to wrap up a U.N. Security Council resolution aimed at ending the monthlong conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, amid hopes that they could adopt a text by the end of the day.
Britain's Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett said France had agreed to a new revised draft resolution, but it would need the approval of Israel and Lebanon to go forward.
With a deal just hours away, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert decided to launch an expanded ground offensive in southern Lebanon, after expressing dissatisfaction over an emerging cease-fire deal, government officials said.
Yet even after the Israeli announcement, Rice said diplomacy continued.
"We're working for a vote today. We're working for a vote today," she said as she entered the Security Council.
It was not immediately clear whether Israel was trying to pressure the Security Council, or whether Israel is really determined to send troops deeper into Lebanon.
Israeli government officials said their opposition was connected to a compromise by the U.S. and France to accommodate Lebanese concerns surrounding a U.N. force already in Lebanon that would help coordinate the withdrawal of Israeli troops from the south.
Lebanon had objected to a U.S. and French proposal giving the U.N. force, known by its acronym UNIFIL, a new mandate under Chapter 7 of the U.N. Charter. A Chapter 7 mandate would give the force new, more robust rules of engagement, including the right to use force.
Lebanon's concerns led the U.S. and France to come up with new language that would strengthen UNIFIL without giving it a Chapter 7 mandate. Yet Israel still fears that the U.N. force will be too weak to keep Hezbollah from rebuilding its forces in south Lebanon, which the militia has controlled for years.
Two other unresolved issues are how to time the withdrawal of Israeli troops from south Lebanon with the arrival of 15,000 troops Lebanon has promised to send there; and what to do with the Chebaa Farms area along the Syria-Lebanon-Israel border, which has been occupied by Israel since the 1967 Mideast War.
Earlier this week, Israel's Security Cabinet had approved a wider ground offensive until Lebanon's Litani River, some 18 miles north of the border. The decision had been suspended for a few days to allow diplomatic efforts to play themselves out.
Before the Israeli announcement, diplomats expressed optimism about a deal and a clear intention wrap up the resolution by the end of the day.
"We are very, very close to an agreement and our aspiration is to have a vote by the end of the afternoon today," U.S. Ambassador John Bolton said after yet another round of negotiations with France.
The latest draft appears to eliminate the prospect of a new, independent multinational force that would patrol a buffer zone between Israel and Lebanon, opting instead to bolster the existing U.N. force in Lebanon, known as UNIFIL, and to make it more powerful. Israel also objects to that idea.
A senior U.S. official in Washington, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the U.S. and France envision a 10-day timeframe between the moment a halt to the hostilities is declared and the moment UNIFIL troops go into action in the south.
Increasingly impatient that diplomacy has taken so long, Russia introduced its own resolution Thursday calling for a blanket 72-hour humanitarian cease-fire in Lebanon. Ambassador Vitaly Churkin sounded an alarm that the humanitarian crisis in Lebanon was reaching "catastrophic" proportions and said it was too urgent for diplomacy to go on much longer.
The Russian resolution also urged "extraordinary diplomatic efforts" for a deal on the U.S.-French draft. Churkin said he hoped his proposal would give them a renewed sense of urgency.
"War is raging in Lebanon and the humanitarian situation is getting catastrophic," Churkin said. "We hope it will focus minds, it will energize politicians and diplomats."
U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan also expressed frustration that a deal has remained elusive.
"I think we've had enough discussions," he said. "The issues have been discussed all around and it is time for decision, and I hope the council will take firm action today."
More than 800 people have died in the monthlong conflict, hundreds of Lebanese civilians and dozens of Israelis.
The United States is chiefly concerned that Hezbollah not be allowed to re-infiltrate south Lebanon once a cessation of hostilities goes into effect. Washington has supported Israel's insistence on staying in southern Lebanon until a robust international force is deployed, which could take weeks or months.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060811/ap_on_re_mi_ea/un_mideast_fighting
I'm not quite to the "no doubt" point, but I'm leaning in the above direction. Note Jeffer's post the other day in which he was discussing how long it would take to get a good sized offensive going, and someone also mentioned "darkening the theater". I know I was thinking that the "delay" might well be meaningless in terms of it's military significance. (Were the troops still moving inside Israel?)
BTW, somebody should send that pic at the beginning of the thread to Pat Benatar!
Ok, so much for my spare time at lunch -- have almost caught up with this thread...