Ivory Coast protesters
Posted on 08/10/2006 11:27:49 AM PDT by mojito
US, French diplomats working on new formula that would lead to ceasefire in North; new proposal may be submitted to UN by Friday; sources say agreement based on French military deployment on northern border. Senior Israeli official: Revised UN Resolution will stop short of requiring peacekeepers to disarm Hizbullah
Getting close to ceasefire? While the IDF is preparing to expand military operations, a French-American proposal for a cease-fire is being formulated Thursday evening and may be presented to the United Nations Security Council by Friday.
According to various reports, the agreement is based on the deployment of French troops on the northern border along with UNIFIL and Lebanese army forces. UN officials expressed optimism regarding the plan but are still waiting for approval from Jerusalem and Beirut.
According to sources in Jerusalem, the new formula is premised on four components:
1. The deployment of a genuine military forces, apparently French and German, in southern Lebanon 2. The implementation of Resolution 1559 3. Negotiations on a prisoner swap 4. The establishment of a mechanism for future Israeli-Lebanese dealings
French Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy said that an agreement on a Security Council proposal for an end to the fighting in Lebanon will be worked out shortly. According to the French minister, "things started moving in New York."
The American-French draft resolution has been forwarded to both Israel and Lebanon for approval. Israel's UN Ambassador Danny Gillerman said the new proposal envisions the IDF staying in Lebanon until it is replaced by a multinational force. Israel hopes such force would have a mandate to deploy across the region and prevent the transfer of weapons from Iran and Syria.
The proposal being formulated followed a meeting Thursday morning between the American and French UN ambassadors, and still needs to be approved by Britain, Russia and China before being presented to the Security Council. American officials again stressed the need to avoid a gap between words and deeds on the ground, in order to avoid a return to the reality that prevailed before July 12.
'This decision is difficult'
According to various reports, the multinational forces being designed for this end includes Lebanese troops, UNIFIL forces, and several thousand French soldiers who are already in the region and can be deployed quickly, at least temporarily, until a more efficient and powerful international force is created. French soldiers are slated to play a major role in such force as well.
According to estimates, Hizbullah will be interested in a ceasefire and will end its rocket fire once a truce is declared, while continuing to fight against IDF forces in Lebanon.
A senior Israeli official said the revised UN Resolution will stop short of requiring peacekeepers to disarm Hizbullah but will call for an embargo to prevent the group from bringing in arms from Iran and Syria.
Kadima Knesset Member Otniel Otniel Schneller met with Prime Minister Ehuld Olmert, who told him that "at this time, a new diplomatic formula with positive implications that could end the fighting is being formulated. If it isn't accepted, Israel will take off the gloves."
Schneller said that he left the meeting with a good feeling and was impressed that the prime minister is decisive.
"At this time there's an attempt to produce a new diplomatic draft, and if what I saw will indeed materialize it would be fabulous. It would prevent Israeli victims," he said.
Schneller added that during the meeting, Olmert received a letter from one of the families who lost their loved ones in Lebanon.
"The letter only strengthened the prime minister, but I also saw dampness in his eyes – this is in fact the dilemma, bringing about a diplomatic agreement or continuing the battle. This decision is difficult both rationally and emotionally," Schneller concluded.
1559 requires the dismantling of the Hezbollah militia.
3. Calls for the disbanding and disarmament of all Lebanese and non-Lebanese militias;
Oh yes, the diplomats call for the implementation of 1559, but no one will be actually responsible for doing the disarming. Not France. Not UNIFIL. Not the Lebanese "army." Isn't that subtle and clever of them?
Any UN resolution has that same problem. Unless the US enforces it, it ain't gonna happen. Hopefully, we'll just continue bickering inthe UN while Israel continues to crush hezbollah. But the US and Israel are fully aware of france's and the UN's double-talk.
Ivory Coast protesters
Any cease-fire that leaves Hezbollah still standing, still armed, and still in Lebanon is not a cease-fire at all, it is an iron-clad guarantee that war will continue, and more Israelis will die.
I don't have a crystal ball, I don't know the shape and size and rules of engagement of the proposed force. A force that was there to wage war would be able to keep Hezbollah out of the south, but only if they were willing to kick in doors and aggressively confront them.
Anything less than that is a sleight of hand, a con designed to save Hezbollah from destruction.
A weak force with weak rules of engagement is the worst of all worlds, it will inevitably provide cover for a Hezbollah that re-infiltrates the south, and will only be in the way when Israel inevitably has to re-invade.
I'm sure Olmert and Rice both know that and will insist on a force capable of waging war. What will actually emerge on the ground remains to be seen.
In general terms, the better answer is for Israel to finish the job prior to the entry of any other forces into the theater.
This is my greatest fear.
I do not think it is psy-op by Israel, and I hope I am wrong. Olmert is simply a very weak person who is afraid that the IDF will lose over 300 soldiers to totally finish Hizballah in Southern Lebanon.
The only disgrace is the media spin on this. It ain't gonna happen. Israel is fighting for its survival and they aren't going to stop because of the media whining or the UN whining. And the US is not going to support a resolution of ceasefire without disarming terrorist. Everything else is wishful spin by the sympathetic MSM.
It's not psy-ops. It's the US running interference for Israel. If not for us, the UN would have issued a ceasefire, withdraw and desist resolution long ago. Bush is having Bolton put language in that will be unacceptable to the arabs and Lebanon. They want Israel to withdraw immediately, and Israel will not do so until sufficient forces are in place. In the meantime, they better be busy wiping out the hezzies.
Nope. Just a bunch of frogs.
You'd think what happened today would open a few eyes in the state department. If they slide this cease-fire through, it's monstrous. Won't work, of course. We'll end up having to fight with Israel.
The only slight good news if this fiasco comes about, is that when the trouble starts again, which it will, Olmert will be thrown out and Bibi will walk in.
About like authorizing a fence and then not authorizing payment for it.
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