Posted on 08/07/2006 11:28:48 AM PDT by DallasJ7
Amy Klobuchar (DFL) has opened her biggest lead of the season over Republican Mark Kennedy in the race for Minnesota’s open Senate seat. The latest Rasmussen Reports election survey shows Klobuchar ahead 50% to 38% (see crosstabs).
Independence candidate Robert Fitzgerald draws support from 5% of respondents.
That’s a big improvement for the Hennepin County Attorney. Klobuchar held a seven-point advantage last December when the DFL field was still crowded (The Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party or DFL is the state's equivalent of the Democratic Party.) In all of our polls since, her lead has been smaller, typically 2-3 points. She led 47% to 44% at the end of June.
Klobuchar now picks up 87% of the vote from Democrats in the state, up from 82% a month ago. More significantly, Klobuchar has gained a 20-point lead among unaffiliated voters.
Kennedy gets 80% of the vote from Republicans statewide.
Klobuchar’s improved position is consistent with a general trend showing improved prospects for Democrats this summer. Our most recent poll in Washington showed Maria Cantwell reversing a long decline and opening a healthy lead in her re-election bid. Democratic challengers now lead Republican Senate incumbents in Pennsylvania, Montana, Rhode Island, Ohio, and Missouri. In Nevada, Senator Ensign (R) still leads, but he has slipped below the 50% mark in terms of voter support.
Thirty percent (30%) of Minnesota voters have a “very favorable” opinion of Klobuchar. Eighteen percent (18%) say the same about Kennedy.
As in most state’s, voters selected the economy as the top issue from a list of six campaign themes. Thirty percent (30%) rank that as their number one area of concern. The war in Iraq (18%) and national security (14%) round out the top three slots.
Klobuchar enjoys the advantage over Kennedy among those citing the economy as the most important issue 55% to 37%. Those who name the war in Iraq as the top issue strongly favor Klobuchar while those who name national security favor Kennedy.
The telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports August 1, 2006. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. (see Methodology)
Kennedy will close the gap but I don't think he'll win. Unfortunately.
If we can't hold onto a national sense of purpose for more than 5 years, we are truly lost indeed.
Domestic traitors and socialist agenda players will be the death of this country and that right soon.
Bilbrey was down by 10% points a day before the election. That's what the media reported.
That's all you have to know.
We need an honest Kennedy in the Senate.
It's a Star-Tribute poll. Has as much credibility as a speech by Howard Dean.
Well, now we know how they polled people. The Repubs need to make a push tying Iraq to National Security. The same terrorists we're fighting in Iraq are the same ones we'd be fighting regardless of whether or not we'd ever gone into Iraq. If not Iraq, the fighting would be that much harder in Afghanistan, Jordan, Palestine, Lebanon, Sudan, Somalia, Saudi Arabia, or even here at home.
The most difficult thing to do with an elusive enemy is to get them to commit to the field. The terrorists are committed to Iraq, and it is not a field we have to win by defeating them all. For victory we just need to hold the field long enough for the Iraqi security forces to work up to a point where we can shift to a support role, and eventually leave. Essentially, the terrorists blundered by committing to a battle/war where their only victory scenario is defined by the collapse and surrender of the government elected by the general Iraqi population. The terrorists have essentially pitted themselves against the majority of Iraqis.
What is Rasmussen's record on state polls? They called the national election exactly right in 2004 but I'm not sure how well they do with state polls. If they are right though, then if the election were held today the Dems would probably take a Senate majority. Pretty scary.
Rasmussen is pretty reliable. The Republicans are in trouble in Montana, Penna, Rhode Island and Missou. This is not good.
"The Republicans are in trouble in Montana, Penna, Rhode Island and Missou."
It's what I hear every August. The Republicans are in trouble, the sky is falling. And the first Wednesday after the first Monday in November, no one can figure out how the Pubbies went from being in trouble to being in charge.
I can only dream of such a poll in MA.
If Klochubar manages to win I'd be surpirised. That said, Mark Kennedy hasn't made any noise. He should, soon.
Not only that, many moderate Democrats are being challenged in the primary by Leftist dems, and are losing. It is really bad...
Also, polls indicate that most people don't care about Illegal immigration and that most people favor amnesty.
See this for proof that shows that even moderate Dems are threatened...
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1679337/posts
Rasmussen got 100% of the State races right in 2004.
Every time you say "Klobuchar", a horse winnies.
Kennedy television ads are up and they are excellent.
As soon as Kloburchar's liberal positions are more known by the voters after Labor Day, independents will recoil with horror.
Kennedy is going to win this race.
Well, the sky may not be falling but there are a few things working against us right now.
Bush isn't too interested in being seen or making a case for anything, except for taking the wrong side on immigration a while back. When the leader of the party is invisible and fairly unpopular, it doesn't help the national trend, which does matter.
Also, one does not need to be a genius to recognize the six-years-in-office trend. It's typically pretty devastating.
Add to that the states in play, with weak candidates like Chafee in some cases, and it isn't a pretty picture.
All I'm saying is, it's usually not good to be so far behind overall when the election is less than 100 days away.
The GOP had better get their asses in gear or the sky may very well just fall. Right now, I would really hate to see them lose more than two Senate seats, as it would likely doom any chance of getting anything Conservative done or any judges confirmed for the next two years.
But the trend is not heading our way right now, and Bush, Rove, and the GOP in general seem to be telling us there's nothing they can do. Usually (like with gay marriage, etc.) they have something to sell by now to convince me they could do well at the polls. As of yet, with less then three months to go, I don't see anything - not a single thing - that they're selling right now. That's not good.
We need to hold the Senate badly, and the House to avoid the IMMEDIATE impeachment proceedings that would follow. But it ain't looking good right now, and I don't see a plan coming from the GOP on how to win this election like I did in 2000, 2002, and 2004.
No plan, no victories. What's the plan? What are the winning issues? Paging Karl Rove!!!!!!!!!
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