Analysis: Mideast conflict complicated

AP on Yahoo ^ | 8/4/06 | Steven Gutkin - ap

[NormsRevenge]

JERUSALEM - When the fighting is over, both Israel and Hezbollah are likely to declare victory. But the truth will be far more complicated.

Hezbollah looks certain to be pushed back from Israel's border, but its standing in the Arab world will remain high. Israel appears set to achieve its goal of getting Hezbollah off its doorstep, but the guerrillas can say they stood up to Israel and lived to tell the tale.

Because of each side's deep-seated need to appear victorious, a thunderous show of force is not unlikely in the time before a cease-fire deal is arranged — perhaps a Hezbollah rocket hitting Tel Aviv, or a massive Israeli ground offensive northward toward the Litani River.

Israel hopes that its offensive in Lebanon, which has already killed more than 500 people, will serve as a warning to Iran, Syria and all Islamic radicals in the Middle East that the price for attacking the Jewish state is too high even to contemplate.

And it hopes its ability to withstand an onslaught of nearly 2,500 Hezbollah rockets will send a strong message of defiance to its enemies.

"Israeli society showed the myth of a weak society is not true," said Efraim Inbar, a professor of political studies at the Bar-Ilan University near Tel Aviv. "I think the region will pay attention."

Israel has not achieved the deterrence it hoped for, however — and it's hard to imagine a scenario in which Hezbollah will feel defeated.

The Shiite group, which sparked the crisis by crossing into Israel and capturing two Israeli soldiers July 12, has kept up its rocket barrage, including some 190 rockets Friday. Hezbollah also made good on its threat to strike deeper and deeper inside Israel, hitting the town of Hadera, 50 miles south of the border, for the first time Friday.

Israel's initial condition for a cease-fire — the disarming of Hezbollah — has been replaced by the far more modest goal of pushing Hezbollah away from the border to make room for a new multinational peacekeeping force.

The group has proven itself to be a more formidable foe than expected. Forty-four Israeli soldiers have died in the fighting, in addition to 30 civilians killed by rocket attacks.

"In their minds they (Hezbollah) won this one," said Timur Goksel, an American University of Beirut professor who spent more than two decades as a senior U.N. adviser in south Lebanon. "And their credibility within their own community is very high. Their credibility in the Muslim world is very high. They fought the Israelis for three weeks without buckling under."

Added Ephraim Halevy, former head of the Mossad spy agency: "Hezbollah built a force of mutual deterrence against Israel. But it's not Hezbollah that built it. It was Iran."

For Israel, the victory narrative is a matter of life and death.

The conflict in Lebanon has reinforced Israelis' deeply ingrained feeling that they are surrounded by enemies who want them dead, bringing a rare sense of clarity to a national psyche blurred by the moral murkiness of the conflict with the Palestinians.

Most Israelis believe winning the war — and being perceived as winning it — is essential for the Jewish state's long-term security.

That helps explain why popular support for the Lebanon campaign remains extremely high despite a growing chorus of media commentators complaining that the war has been poorly conceived and executed.

Israel's Channel 10 TV released a new poll Friday night showing 84 percent of Israelis are satisfied with the army's performance, with only 8 percent dissatisfied. No margin of error was given.

Most Mideast observers agree that to be seen as winning, Hezbollah needs only to emerge from the conflict with its war machine still functioning — an outcome that now appears very likely.

In an interview with The Associated Press on Wednesday, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said the disarming of Hezbollah will come only after a cease-fire is in place and a beefed-up multinational peacekeeping force takes up positions in south Lebanon — an arrangement the U.N. Security Council is now seeking to put together.

William Brown, U.S. ambassador to Israel from 1988 to 1992, said that even if Israel succeeds in pushing Hezbollah away from its northern border and an international force moves in, Hezbollah's rockets will still be able to reach Israel, firing "over the heads" of peacemakers.

"Unless you get a more comprehensive type of solution, the arms will continue to flow in from Iran through Syria," he said.

Disrupting that arms supply explains Israel's decision on Friday to target bridges in the Christian heartland north of Beirut for the first time.

Israeli military officials said Friday they completed the first phase of the offensive, securing a 4-mile buffer zone in south Lebanon, though pockets of Hezbollah resistance remained.

Defense Minister Amir Peretz has told top army officers to begin preparing for a push to the Litani River, about 20 miles north of the border — a move that would require Cabinet approval and could lead to many more casualties.

____

Steven Gutkin is the AP's bureau chief in Jerusalem

[Personal Responsibility]

Analysis: Mideast conflict complicated

No, really? You don't say.

[NormsRevenge]

U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. John Bolton exits after a meeting with the French Ambassador to the U.N., where they negotiated details for a U.N. Security Council resolution to end fighting between Lebanon and Israel, in New York August 4, 2006. The United States, France and Britain hope for a U.N. Security Council resolution within days that would call for a truce between Israel and Hizbollah, and maybe strengthen existing U.N. peacekeepers until a more robust force can be formed, U.N. officials said. REUTERS/Chip East (UNITED STATES)

[MNJohnnie]

No it is not. Israel would leave all the various terrorist groups alone IF they would leave it alone, As usual Asso Propaganda lakes the mental horsepower to make serious critical distinctions. Israel has repeatedly given up land in exchange for promises of peace. Hizbolla is NOT attacking the "occupied territories" it is attack land given to Israel in 1948. Hizbolla uses terrorists tactics to deliberately attack Israeli Civilians. Hibollah is swore to the destruction of the Jews.

Anyone who THINKS rather then mindlessly regurgitates their Leftist Political dogma knows this. That the Asso Press is INCAPABLE of reporting fundamental facts is another indication they lack any credibility at all as a serious source of information.

[mad puppy]

"In their minds they (Hezbollah) won this one," said Timur Goksel, an American University of Beirut professor who spent more than two decades as a senior U.N. adviser in south Lebanon. "And their credibility within their own community is very high. Their credibility in the Muslim world is very high. They fought the Israelis for three weeks without buckling under."

---

And it is the above that requires Israel to continue fighting until Hezbollah is completely annihilated. There can be no other way. Any possible victory, be it ever so small, that Hezbollah is allowed will be catastrophic later on.

[Lonesome in Massachussets]

Analysis: Mideast conflict complicated

This just in: Most people find General Relativity difficult to grasp.

I still like Thomas Sowell's observation that liberals often mistake confusion in their own minds for complexity in the real world. The solution to the Hezbollah problem begins with killing as many of them as we can, pour encourager les autres.

[GeronL]

We have another Best of the Web headline again

[GeronL]

Its not that complicated. Hez-Ebola are the bad guys and the Israeli's are the good guys.

Hey Hannity said a poll said most Democrats are neutral in the war.....??? is it posted on FR??

[telebob]

The complications can be unraveled by Israel completely annihilating Hezbollah. Problem solved.

No need for the Hezbos to declare victory, no need for the Arab 'street' to proclaim them heroes.

Apparently this AP Asshat hasn't entertained the notion that Israel will be obviously victorious and Hezbollah will be obviously defeated.

So defeated, in fact, that even their knee-pad wearing cheerleaders in the MSM will not be able to spin the last smoking pair of Hezbollah leg stumps into a victory for terror.

[ImpBill]

Norm, I know you are but the messanger. But it really isn't all that complicated. It may take a while for a majority to get it, but it is "us against them". Always has been and always will be until "we" finsih the job, and there is no longer any of "them" left.

[boomop1]

Right, it ain't over until it's over.

[AmericaUnited]

As the greatest President of my lifetime, Ronald Reagan, once something like this regarding the Cold War:

It's simple, WE WIN and THEY LOSE.
The details of how that is accomplished is the only thing that may be complicated.

[Frank_Discussion]

Bears.
Woods.
Bear scat.
That sort of thing.

What ever would we do without experts? /sarc

[trek]

"but the guerrillas can say they stood up to Israel and lived to tell the tale."

The propogandists at the Associated Press may be jumping the gun here. Last time I checked the shoot'n wasn't over yet. The Gambler cautioned wisely not to "count your money 'til the dealin's done." The seditious fools at the AP would be well advised not to count their Hezbo friends' pulses 'til the shootin's done.

[TheOracleAtLilac]

...Mideast conflict complicated

Permit me to clarify

The arabs seek to destroy Israel & drive its inhabitants into the sea.

When the arabs are not pursuing that agenda, they are busy killing eachother.

These arab savages are locked into a 7th century tribalism that probably won't be resolved short of their obliteration.

See, simple.

[Vn_survivor_67-68]

"....the arms will continue to flow in from Iran through Syria," he said."

Ummmmmmm.....Iran shares no border with syria or lebanon.....iraq and turkey are in the way or they are thru-ways.

[Star Traveler]

You said -- "Iran shares no border with syria or lebanon...."

But, they have airplanes...

Regards,
Star Traveler

[R.W.Ratikal]

The Middle East conflict is anything but complicated. In fact it is so simple that it takes no time at all to figure it out. It is, as they say, a no brainer.

Here's the analysis:

The Arabs are trying to kill all Jews. The Jews are defending themselves against annihilation.

That's it! That's all there is to it.

[Vn_survivor_67-68]

You said -- But, they have airplanes...

I knew someone smart would bring up airplanes and boats.

I'm still waiting for someone that smart to show up.

[Star Traveler]

You said -- "That's it! That's all there is to it."

Okay, so how does that help you solve it?

The complicated factor is in the solving...

Regards,
Star Traveler