Charlie Cook: Debacle Coming for GOP

http://www.newsmax.com/archives/ic/2006/8/1/202008.shtml?s=ic ^

[Deek1969]

The 2006 midterm elections will be a disaster for the Republican Party -- unless a "cataclysmic event" saves the day.

That's the dire warning from political analyst Charlie Cook, who predicts in his "Off to the Races" column that the GOP's expected misfortune will result from a perfect storm of three factors:

[MaineVoter2002]

I agree. The "gas is affordable argument." is political suicide. Even Rush Limbaugh uses the "gas is affordable argument" but he also aknowledges that it will become a major issue in november and not one that's on the side of the republicans this time around. People dont want to hear that "gas is affordable argument." Look what happened to Jimmah Carter. The "gas is affordable argument." is not much difference than the wearing of a sweater.

[Jameison]

"but the Cook Report is an independent, non partisan report"


What did he say before the 2002 and 2004 elections then?
Plus we have plenty of "independent", "non-partisan" outfits out there, all of them coming to different conclusions in how they predict various elections.
Being "independent" doesn't make you right.



"..but I know some on FR think if anything is negative, then it is bias"

I still remember the early "exit polls" in 2004. They had Hanoi John winning soldidly.
And that was AFTER the real polls had been cast.
On top of all that, we had that notorious prediction by Zongby, after the exit polls had come out on election day, confidently predicting a Kerry win. He couldn't get it right even then.
It's hardly any surprise Freepers don't think much of these predictions.


"when Ann Coulter said the same thing"


I listened to Ann talk about the mid-terms on Fox. What she said was she doesn't do predictions (unlike this guy), but going by what normally happens to the ruling party in mid-term elections Republicans should lose.
But then we "should have lost" in 2002 too, going by that same argument.
We won instead.

[NorCalRepub]

.....I don't dispute that...and yes, he could be wrong..but he has been right in the past...and I would not dismiss him as a political hack like some here just cause he is saying something they don't like....happens alot here....sorry, but it does....again....I never said he was right if YOU read my post...I said I would not ignore him at our peril..

[MaineVoter2002]

I dont believe in the polls by the media. I DO believe my own polls as I talk with others in my daily life. There is a major change in sentiment since the 2002 and 2004 elections and not to the benefit of the republicans.

[napscoordinator]

An example would be maybe 1 in 10 people even know what ANWAR is, and just maybe 2 in 10 know who OPEC is and what they does to us.



I totally agree with you. The average Joe does not know these things. It does not help that congress or senate talked about giving 100 dollars to every tax paying American and then never heard a peep again. A 100 dollars to average Joe is money to buy what ever he wants regardless of the amount.

[KoRn]

"Help support my "Ride Your Bike to the Polls on Election Wednesday" endeavor."

That would work for me. I live in a small town. I could ride a bike most anywhere I would want to go. Of course I would have to buy one first, and it would suck during bad weather or if I had to haul anything. =)

[MaineVoter2002]

True. The media polls had the republicans losing in 2002 and 2004. But we knew those polls were bogus because they did not reflect the opinions we heard by the average joe on the streets in our daily life back then.

This time I see a difference. The same average joes who were supporting the GOP back then are angry now. They DO reflect the polls I see.

If everybody you talk to is happy then I guess the status quo is safe. But I dont see it that way. Not this time. Not here in FR, not in other forums and NOT with the people I talk with daily.

I'm experiencing a difference this time.

[John Valentine]

Every time is different.

And if we put the Democrats back in charge of Congress, we'll get to see just how different different can be.

God help us all if we're THAT stupid.

[A CA Guy]

Thanks, and what about Europe makes it's currency so strong?

I think it's the newest thing on the block, but that eventually the Euro will drop like junk bonds.

[nathanbedford]

If we lose the House, we will lose any chance of controlling our borders and we will have open immigration disguised as amnesty and we will, as a result, lose our constitutional republic as we know it.

If we lose the Senate, we lose any chance of restoring the court system to an acquaintanceship with the Constitution and every facet of our lives will be distorted.

[wardaddy]

They will have no one to blame but themselves for ignoring their base and running from their core values.

But....I don't think it will be as bad as predicted but bad enough.

Baring a cataclysmic event.

[Rokke]

Charlie Cook's forecast on 10 Aug 2004.....

"This election is certainly not over but events or circumstances will need to fundamentally change the existing equation for President Bush to win a second term."

[Jameison]

"This election is certainly not over but events or circumstances will need to fundamentally change the existing equation for President Bush to win a second term."


Now why am I not surprised by that one?
Guy is saying essentially he same thing he said in 2004, and was wrong about.
Ah well.

[MaineVoter2002]

God help us all if we're THAT stupid

I wish it were as simple as freepers out numbering all on election day. But the reality is, many Americans will be voting and they are neither republican nor democrat. Many of them they see no difference between democrat and republican. They only know who is in power today and when they vote, they will vote their pocketbook.

The best thing is to hold our leaders (not the voters) accountable NOW by letting them know how we feel so that they can make changes before that day when Americans go vote and make the change for them.

[mugs99]

Gas could go to $10 per gallon for all I care, I'll just ride a bike to work. lol

LOL!
Do you plan on eating? That $10 per gallon gas will raise your cost of living. You'll be riding your bike and living on Top Ramen!
.

[hosepipe]

Republicans and democrats are too dumb for there to much of a change..
The apathy is as thick as honey...

[MaineVoter2002]

You'll be riding your bike and living on Top Ramen!

LOL You got that right! Not to mention the political fallout. Geez!

[mugs99]

Europe is still paying 6-8 US Dollars a gallon.

Europe finances their social programs with gas taxes. The US doesn't.
.

[Rokke]

"Guy is saying essentially he same thing he said in 2004, and was wrong about."

Funny thing about fortune tellers. They have a habit of saying "XXXX will definitely happen unless something else comes along that changes things." Well no kidding. The only thing more useless than their predictions are the people who knee jerk themselves into epileptic seizures after reading them.

I've studied Charlie's methods, and here's some of my predictions...the stock market will rise to 12,000 points, unless it falls; tomorrow it will be hot and dusty, unless it rains; and Alec Baldwin will soon star in another epic movie like "Thomas the Train Engine", unless Hollywood continues to find the simple suggestion of his name dooms a movie to an immediate release on nothing more than Viewmaster discs.

[JennysCool]

The "gas is affordable argument." is political suicide.

I don't know. This is EASILY one of the busiest tourist seasons in years in my neck of the woods, and I've never seen so many RVs tooling around.

Smart people simply adapt. Chicken Littles get all the press.