Posted on 07/31/2006 7:28:45 PM PDT by LdSentinal
A constitutional amendment that would ban same-sex marriages in Virginia has strong support among state voters, according to a new poll.
Fifty-six percent said that they will vote for the amendment this fall, 38 percent said they will oppose it, according to a survey completed last week by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. of Washington, D.C. The company interviewed 625 registered voters who said they intend to participate in the Nov. 7 election, when the marriage amendment will appear on state ballots.
The Virginia vote appears largely to be divided along partisan lines. Eighty-two percent of Republicans said they support the amendment; 15 percent said they oppose it. In contrast, 27 percent of Democrats said they plan to vote for the ban and 63 percent said they would vote against it.
Among independents, 53 percent supported the amendment and 41 percent opposed it.
The amendment had broad support in all areas of the state except Northern Virginia, the most populous region. There, 48 percent of voters opposed the same-sex marriage ban, 44 percent supported it.
In Hampton Roads, 57 percent supported the amendment, 36 percent opposed it.
The ban was backed by roughly two-to-one ratios in metropolitan Richmond, Roanoke and Southwest Virginia.
Among men, 61 percent supported the amendment; 36 percent opposed it. Among women, 51 percent backed it and 40 percent said they would vote against it.
Fifty-eight percent of whites said they would vote "yes," and 38 percent said they would vote "no." Among blacks, the amendment had 46 percent support and 41 percent opposition.
"We're confident that Virginia will join 20 other states that already have passed a marriage amendment, and I think this poll shows we're heading in that direction," said Chris Freund, policy director for The Family Foundation, a socially conservative interest group that is campaigning for the amendment.
Claire Guthrie Gastanaga, who is leading the campaign against the amendment, said Mason-Dixon asked its poll question unfairly and that the issue is much closer than the poll concluded.
Mason-Dixon read to voters only the first paragraph of the ballot question, which asks if the constitution should be amended so " only a union between one man and one woman may be a marriage valid in or recognized by this Commonwealth and its political subdivisions."
She said that the pollster omitted the second paragraph of the proposed amendment, which says Virginia " shall not create or recognize a legal status for relationships of unmarried individuals." Gastanaga said that language and other words in the second paragraph undermine the rights of unmarried couples to enter into any contract.
Gastanaga said that when the full amendment is read to voters, only a small majority favor passage. "We want to make sure voters know the whole story," she said.
The telephone survey was conducted from July 25 to 27. The margin of error for the statewide results is plus or minus 4 percentage points. Margins of error are typically higher for subcategories, such as results broken down by region, sex or race.
If this is on the November ballot, it helps George Allen even more.
God help us if Northern Virginia ever gains a majority in the General Assembly. As bad as we are now, the Old Dominion will surely be doomed, what with all of the Lower New Yorkers that live here...
56% is all they could muster? Most states have passed the ban with easily 65-70%.
Northern Virginia is full of transplanted liberals from New York, Massachusetts, etc. who drove down the poll numbers. Head down to Southern and Southwest Virginia and you'll find probably 80% or more against gays in general and gay marriage in particular.
This is probably like any other Typical Democatic funded-supporting poll: It's not true to "likely voters": It just probably just takes the average joe (oversampled with northern VA Democrats of course ;)): Therefore I believe that intensity is something that must be measured too (as well as only 'likely voters'; There I'll bet this ammendment gets 80+ percent). I REALLY, can't immagine VA going below 70 percent on the acutal count to keep marriage legally defined to 1 man + 1 woman ;)! I used to live there, and VA (while not the Confederate capital it once was; is still a fairly Conservative State (even among a portion of the democratic population)..
Even Oregon voted down same sex "marriage" by 58%. And it's got to be much more liberal than VA.
Closer to 90% probably.
I think the statewide results will be about 66-34.
Polls always vastly underestimate support for this amendment. In Missouri, where it passed with 70%, polls showed support for it in the mid-50s. Even in Texas, where it passed with 81%, there were polls showing it much closer.
It's due to a combination of factors. Many polls are biased toward the liberal side. Also, because of the effects of Political Correctness, a lot of people are afraid to say they're against gay "marriage" unless they're among family or friends. They don't want to appear to be a "homophobe" to the presumably "enlightened" person who is polling them.
Yes, the pre-election polls usually understate the actual support for banning gay marriage on Election Day.
So if it's ahead 56-38% in this poll, it will pass easily on Election Day.
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