Posted on 07/30/2006 2:06:41 PM PDT by rface
Rush Limbaugh announced on his show that the GOP house internal polling shows a circa 30 seat loss for 2006.
It is hard for me to write much on this subject, as internal polling is secretive and not generaly available to public scrutiny. But there are some thoughts for discussion here.
One, is Rush correct? I don't think Rush makes it up as he goes along. He is human, and can make errors (as can anybody talking solo for 15 hours a week). But I haven't known him to lie outright on a political matter ever. I believe Rush has reported what he has gleaned from a GOP member of congress or a staffer.
Two, is the information correct? Is it a leak, or a misinformation campaign? I guess I don't see much value in leaking incorrect data to Rush exagerating a potential house loss. So I tend to believe the leaker was being accurate.
Three, should Rush have reported this (and should I write about it)? No to the first part. Internal polling is not meant to be leaked or reported. Once millions of Rush listeners have the info, it is already public and so I offer it here for your analysis.
Four, implications? Internal polling isn't the "for public" polling that you get from groups like Zogby, Gallup, Rasmussen, etc. Internal polling is the hard core, scientific, no spin accurate stuff that the candidates and the parties get and is held close to their vests. Only the best of the best work directly for the parties and candidates. My point is that if the information Rush reported is accurate, there are dark times ahead.
Implications go beyond this too. With the recent failure of the GOP by raising the minimum wage and cutting (but enshrining) a major tax, and with no movement on issues like arctic and offshore drilling, the slow pace of federal court appointments, and unreal spending, the GOP is losing the base. Despite our war on terror and a robust economy, Americans see casualty numbers and gas prices.
Having just adjourned for a recess, I see little the house can do other than campaign localy in the near term. If we blow this election we have no one to blame other than ourselves (a moderate to liberal GOP senate and a spend happy house).
"Where have you gone Ronald Reagan, a nation turns it's lonely eyes to you".
Ah, polling companies. They are such paragons of truth!
ROTFLMAO!!!! Keep on keepin' on, Partner! You go right ahead and believe that. Then I'll help you pick your jaw off the floor when the "elites" convince themselves that McCain and Giuliani types are the GOP's panacea for emergence from an '06 defeat.
Total lack of, and fear of, principles bump.
I think they've known this for a while. That's why you have seen an increase in the reporting of crack downs on illegals, the companies that hire them, and the guard on the border. (Even though most of the illegals that have been nabbed have been released.)
Nothing to get excited about. It's just the politicians doing what they always do. That is, doing what the people want just far enough ahead of an election to have an impact.
The Republican base has been upset with their representatives (and I use this term loosely) for quite some time. It's good to see it showing in some poll results. Maybe it will shake things up a bit.
This is just energizing the base. I imagine that if you checked mid-term election news in 2002 and 1998 on Lexis/Nexus you would find equally astonished poll numbers suggesting that the republicans were about to be slaughtered. Didn't turn out that way though, huh?
The important thing is to figure out the pre-election psychological cycle. There are times for good news, and times where you want the news to sound catastrophic. But it is built up to election day.
They used to talk of an "October surprise", but now it's "May, June, July, September and October surprises". It is not just good stuff for your side, but damaging material about the other side.
It is scheduled, primed, the State party offices know when it will arrive and what news outlets will get the press releases and how, etc.
And *this* is what Karl Rove does best.
First of, the GOPer is a RINO and Novak predicted the GOP would lose seats in 2002 and 2004.
Second, Coulter was talking about the historic trend in the sixth year, not about what would happen in 2006.
I think they are going to lose control. As long as it's the conservatives who survive and the Rinos who don't, I'll be satisfied.
Well I'm not convinced of this, but if it happens those who lose their seats will have nobody to blame but themselves.
You win folks to your side when you differentiate yourselves from your opponents. You don't do it by outspending them when you're promise was fiscal restraint. You don't do it by doubling the budget of the Education department. You don't do it by pandering to the illegal immigrants.
Folks have a real beaf with Congress, and that's a real shame. If they'd have acted like Conservatives at least they could have run on Conservative principles. Now what?
The War on Terror is all they have, and even then they failed to make it clear it was a war on Islamo-Fascism all the time.
"If they win both Houses of Congress, Katy, bar the door!"
More like "Katy, lock and load!"
It's all blah, blah. National polls are gut reactions to Bush. Local races run on local issues, like water, illegal immigrants, etc.
The GOP "base" tends to be people who would chew their leg off from a trap to get to the polls, so any voter apathy would mean a significant number of people just feel that there's no point in choosing between two worthless parties. Most of the Dem "base" are die-hard Bush-haters who also are not likely to shy away from the polls; more likely they will gin up unprecedented numbers of dead and illegal voters this time.
Again, I would still like to see a viable third party but it would likely sap away more GOP votes than Dems. I dunno, but it does seem like at least a reduction in GOP seats is coming. If a GOP bloodbath in the House is looming, invest in assault rifles and keep a close eye on any stocks you own...the Senate won't save us from an unfriendly House.
Much of this strikes me as a large load of horse whatever.
In 1994, we had several factors which we don't have now:
1. We had just had redistricting, often delayed by two years in the courts. The districts we currently have have been stable for some time.
2. Haley Barbour and others had done good recruiting. They found enough "good" candidates that when a voter wanted change, they could pick one of these guys. (By "good" I mean that they looked like they should be in the same ballpark as the incumbent. Not by ideology, but by demeanor, presence, brains, whatever.) I see no evidence that the DNC has done a good job of recruitment on a large scale.
3. Gingrich and crew "nationalized" the election, in a real way. The democrats haven't done it. "Hate Bush" isn't it. With Dean/Reid/Pelosi trying to do a Gingrich, you've got guaranteed failure here.
4. Things should be leaked as "bad". If you aren't running scared, you are running stupid.
So I won't relax, but just because a lot of people are wetting their pants wrt the election doesn't mean I will.
Yet.
Anyone who honestly thinks the GOP will lose control of the House or Senate or both this year is a tool of the left with the kind of selective amnesia that has no cure.
If GOP voters stay home while troops are fighting and dying, then they are not conservatives.
No conservative is un-American enough to throw away a vote that soldiers fought for and died for.
Therefore, since I do not believe that the GOP is littered with feckless un-Americans, I think the GOP will be fine in 2006.
I live in liberal infested CA. and even the dems I know are voting R because the don't trust liberals with our security
:-) My condolences.
No you're wrong I'm afraid. It has everything to do with the GOP abandoning Joe SixPack
I'm not fully buying into it either... but then again... I didn't believe the Rapist could pull it off(the election) in 1992.
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