Posted on 07/30/2006 2:06:41 PM PDT by rface
Rush Limbaugh announced on his show that the GOP house internal polling shows a circa 30 seat loss for 2006.
It is hard for me to write much on this subject, as internal polling is secretive and not generaly available to public scrutiny. But there are some thoughts for discussion here.
One, is Rush correct? I don't think Rush makes it up as he goes along. He is human, and can make errors (as can anybody talking solo for 15 hours a week). But I haven't known him to lie outright on a political matter ever. I believe Rush has reported what he has gleaned from a GOP member of congress or a staffer.
Two, is the information correct? Is it a leak, or a misinformation campaign? I guess I don't see much value in leaking incorrect data to Rush exagerating a potential house loss. So I tend to believe the leaker was being accurate.
Three, should Rush have reported this (and should I write about it)? No to the first part. Internal polling is not meant to be leaked or reported. Once millions of Rush listeners have the info, it is already public and so I offer it here for your analysis.
Four, implications? Internal polling isn't the "for public" polling that you get from groups like Zogby, Gallup, Rasmussen, etc. Internal polling is the hard core, scientific, no spin accurate stuff that the candidates and the parties get and is held close to their vests. Only the best of the best work directly for the parties and candidates. My point is that if the information Rush reported is accurate, there are dark times ahead.
Implications go beyond this too. With the recent failure of the GOP by raising the minimum wage and cutting (but enshrining) a major tax, and with no movement on issues like arctic and offshore drilling, the slow pace of federal court appointments, and unreal spending, the GOP is losing the base. Despite our war on terror and a robust economy, Americans see casualty numbers and gas prices.
Having just adjourned for a recess, I see little the house can do other than campaign localy in the near term. If we blow this election we have no one to blame other than ourselves (a moderate to liberal GOP senate and a spend happy house).
"Where have you gone Ronald Reagan, a nation turns it's lonely eyes to you".
Yep. Help me out. Did the GOP lose 30 seats during '04? :-p
Heh. I guess we'll have to wait and see.
And that didn't happen.
The Democrat whack-o base, coupled with the scent of a chance to take over the Congress will enrgize them and carry them to the voting booths, along with all the usual suspects (dead voters, absentee/provisional ballot voters, and the ILLEGAL ALIEN voters).
With the Democrats sensing a win, and that drumbeat every day in the mainstream media that the Democrats are leading in the polls, they will flock to the polling place.
On the other side, Republican voters are disenchanted, frustrated, and see only putting back the same lack-luster incumbent Republican they are stuck with...and they will stay home in numbers.....
yes......that's what Rush said. If the GOP starts playing with the idea of raising minimum wage - then we are to know that there is some truth behind the fear of losing big in Nov.
House Democratic Whip Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) is grounding his claim that Democrats “are in striking distance” of taking back the House with a heavy statistical comparison to the Republican watershed election of 1994.
Relying on “generic ballot” polling data from both years, Hoyer argued that his party is in a better position than Newt Gingrich and his troops were in July 1994, on their way to winning a net gain of 52 seats in November.
Democrats need to overcome an 11-seat deficit to return their party to majority status.
“If you compared the two years, we are way ahead of them,” Hoyer told reporters yesterday at one of his periodical political roundtable discussions.
Polls consistently show that voters prefer a generic Democratic to a generic Republican ballot by six to eight points, he said...
What about Charles Rangel as Chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee?
Ssssshhh!! ;-)
Didn't get beyond this drivel. Come back when you're ready to talk some sense.
And Republicans will unload their cash advantage in the next three months,
If we're gonna have gridlock, I'd rather have it with a Republican president.
A while back the polling I heard about the number of competitive Republican seats was between 25-30 and only 4-5 were actual high risk and a very large majority fell low risk. I have heard recently that a large group of moderate Republicans are planning to vote moderate Democrats and it's not because of Iraq, Israel, Lebanon, etc, it's because of gas prices. I believe the Republicans will lose seats but it won't be more than 10.
Yup. When you think about it, the public has given the GOP a lot of power since 1994. Unfortunately--and this sickens me to say--the GOP shows over and over that it cannot govern. The party as it currently exists is a spineless blob. Think about it: Who in the GOP house/senate jumps out as a smart tough leader? How many can we name?
The saddest part of it is that the country is really quite conservative on the whole. Even after the neverending MSM propaganda blasts them day after day, even after the NEA and its ilk has its way with the public school system, even after everything conservatism has aligned against it, the public has STILL put and kept the GOP in charge of Congress. Amazing things could be done if we had a party with a spine and gumption.
MM
However, the Dems have done an impressive job of fundraising for the Senate, leaving the Pubbies in the dust. That gives me more concern than any generic or double-secret internal House polling.
Okay....here I am.
If you think the Republican majority has NOT let it's voterbase down, you have slept through the last 6 years that they were in the Majority.
Their only hope is that their voters wouldn't vote for a Democrat on a bet, but they are not confident (rightfully so) that they will have voters showing up in large numbers....
Okay....here I am.
If you think the Republican majority has NOT let it's voterbase down, you have slept through the last 6 years that they were in the Majority.
Their only hope is that their voters wouldn't vote for a Democrat on a bet, but they are not confident (rightfully so) that they will have voters showing up in large numbers....
And "real conservative" voters that weren't so darned gullible! :-D
But losing might. And if that's what it takes, so be it.
We have caller ID on our home phone, but since everyone in the house has a personal cell phone, we simply shut off the ringer in the home phone. I check it every couple of days to see if anyone called that I need to recontact. Otherwise, pollsters and telemarketers don't have a snowball's chance of getting ahold of me. They would have to call my cell number, and then they would get an earful.
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