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Frightening internal polling (House GOP to lose 30 seats?)
RedState ^ | Jul 30th, 2006 | HoosierTeacher

Posted on 07/30/2006 2:06:41 PM PDT by rface

Rush Limbaugh announced on his show that the GOP house internal polling shows a circa 30 seat loss for 2006.

It is hard for me to write much on this subject, as internal polling is secretive and not generaly available to public scrutiny. But there are some thoughts for discussion here.

One, is Rush correct? I don't think Rush makes it up as he goes along. He is human, and can make errors (as can anybody talking solo for 15 hours a week). But I haven't known him to lie outright on a political matter ever. I believe Rush has reported what he has gleaned from a GOP member of congress or a staffer.

Two, is the information correct? Is it a leak, or a misinformation campaign? I guess I don't see much value in leaking incorrect data to Rush exagerating a potential house loss. So I tend to believe the leaker was being accurate.

Three, should Rush have reported this (and should I write about it)? No to the first part. Internal polling is not meant to be leaked or reported. Once millions of Rush listeners have the info, it is already public and so I offer it here for your analysis.

Four, implications? Internal polling isn't the "for public" polling that you get from groups like Zogby, Gallup, Rasmussen, etc. Internal polling is the hard core, scientific, no spin accurate stuff that the candidates and the parties get and is held close to their vests. Only the best of the best work directly for the parties and candidates. My point is that if the information Rush reported is accurate, there are dark times ahead.

Implications go beyond this too. With the recent failure of the GOP by raising the minimum wage and cutting (but enshrining) a major tax, and with no movement on issues like arctic and offshore drilling, the slow pace of federal court appointments, and unreal spending, the GOP is losing the base. Despite our war on terror and a robust economy, Americans see casualty numbers and gas prices.

Having just adjourned for a recess, I see little the house can do other than campaign localy in the near term. If we blow this election we have no one to blame other than ourselves (a moderate to liberal GOP senate and a spend happy house).

"Where have you gone Ronald Reagan, a nation turns it's lonely eyes to you".


TOPICS: Miscellaneous; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 109th; 2006polls; bushbasherswonderwhy; conservabotstoblame; election2006; electionconngress; elephanteatsownhead; geeiwonderwhy; predictions; timetolookinmirror; wearedoomed
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To: brytlea

My point was that McCain, at least to my knowledge at this time, is the only "Republican" that I will not vote for, period. The others (congress and Presidential) I will hold my nose if required but I will vote for them. I'm going to vote.


161 posted on 07/30/2006 3:47:50 PM PDT by DB (©)
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To: rface

This is not a lie or a recitation of despair. It is a warning - a warning that if the Republican party as a whole does NOT come out with a coherent message, they stand to lose their tenuous hold on the attentions of the fickle US voters before they can consolidate and cement it for years to come.

The worst thing that can happen to a political party is to gain a permanent majority, and seem to go unchallenged for years on end. So in a way, the fact that Republicans have to prove all over, again and again, that they have a worthy message to the voters, and are forced to articulate in a manner that is both unmistakable and attractive, is destined to keep their instincts honed. The problem here is, that the Dem'crats have been even more haphazard about revealing their message to the voters, other than to say, "We're not Republicans!" On balance, that is a pretty feeble reason to choose Dem'crat candidates over Republicans, but if the Republicans cannot or will not present a pleasant and tidy edifice to the public, the Dem'crats are not beholden in any way to do the Republicans' work for them.

The message is, don't get too comfortable.


162 posted on 07/30/2006 3:48:34 PM PDT by alloysteel (My spelling is Wobbly. It's good spelling, but it Wobbles, and the letters get in the wrong places.)
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To: rface
Stagnant water becomes toxic, turgid and putrid. As Bush becomes his fathers President and the country just stagnates the people get restless. I am afraid the old message does not resonate. They have succeeded in tax cuts. They have failed to control spending and are no longer credible.They have failed to deal with alternative forms of energy or the high cost of health insurance. they have done nothing else but give Psyche gratification to the religious right with out any real substance when most of the people are tired of the same.

I think the GOP needs a new message and new issues and they really need to stir things up. The country will go to the Dem's if they don't. The GOP will deserve losing but will the country deserve the Dem's?
163 posted on 07/30/2006 3:49:07 PM PDT by bilhosty (to hell with ABCNNBCBS)
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To: All
Three, should Rush have reported this (and should I write about it)? No to the first part. Internal polling is not meant to be leaked or reported.

Not meant to be leaked perhaps. Reported? Last I checked it wasn't a national security secret. It's campaign polling. If they don't want it reported, make sure it isn't leaked.

As to the results? I doubt a loss of 30 seats. There are too many partisan voters on either side to allow for a change that extreme these days. I don't doubt he reported as he was given, but the person that leaked it obviously had an agenda. What their agenda was I don't know, because I don't know the leaker. Do they want to "scare" people to the polls? Demoralize? Who really knows.

But, as I have said before, I've already told my amnesty happy Congressman I am not voting for him. And I've stopped replying to his letters trying to change my mind. So can seats be lost? If my attitude is shared by enough, yeah, swing districts can be lost. I've said that all along, though.

Oh, right, and this makes me a terrorist lovin' unpatriotic faux conservative that wants Hillary made queen. Have I got the correct talking points down?

Yet for all the effort to scare, rebuke, ridicule and threaten...my intent hasn't been swayed at all. But I am growing increasingly bitter, with scepticism that some Republicans in the House want to use conservatives during a rough election cycle and then toss them out by passing amnesty immediately afterward. And that is feuled by seeing the pact with the devil Pence/KayB. have signed to.

If they are seeing their constituents demoralized, maybe they ought to have a chat with Congressman Pence doing his best to convince us we're going to get screwed if we support the House in the fall. And while chatting to him, why don't they chat to the the poor replacement of the Hammer that increasingly is scheduling Liberal legislation for passage. Then hop on over to the Senate where McCain is orchestrating the destruction of conservatism progress from within, in an attempt to position himself as the savior of the party. If they really wanted to raise spirits? Here's two ways to go about it.

1) Destroy amnesty. I really don't care how they do it, but go nuclear on the admin and the Senate. So long as they go out there and discuss "comprehensive amnesty" I am NOT in a chipper activist mood.

2) Kick McCain out of the party.

I'm dead serious about this.

Amnesty is a persistent drag on the party depressing turnout, even when it's not on the front pages. Just as Miers would have been, if she hadn't been withdrawn. People that said we should have sucked up her appointment did NOT understand it never would have happened. Every day on that bench would have been a knife toward the Majority. And so it is with amnesty. Until Bush himself is made to kill it, it will weigh on this party more than they think Iraq ever could.

The other sore point is McCain. He symbolizes everything that has gone wrong, the loss of hope among conservatives all across the spectrum. Until that virus is removed....

164 posted on 07/30/2006 3:50:40 PM PDT by Soul Seeker (Kobach: Amnesty is going from an illegal to a legal position, without imposing the original penalty.)
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To: DB
You mean 94 right?

No I mean 98

Don't know where Newt thought all those 25 new seats were coming from after the GOP took all those seats in 94
He was banking on the Clinton scandal
He is out of it as a political maven
165 posted on 07/30/2006 3:51:17 PM PDT by uncbob
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To: Mamzelle
Conservatives are discouraged, yes - but remember this:

Dem control of Congress & you might as well kiss the USA goodbye. Cut and run on Iraq, more UN influence in foreign policy, higher taxes and spending, impeachment proceedings of Bush, etc. You try and get rid of the RINOs in the primaries, but if they win, you hold your nose and vote for them and keep the angry letters and faxes coming to them. Never concede and give up any seats to the Dems.

166 posted on 07/30/2006 3:51:28 PM PDT by Extremely Extreme Extremist (404 Page Error Found)
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To: BushMeister

When they go down in one column they go up in the other. The likelihood they go third party is nearly zero.

231-16=215
201+16=217

So yes, a swing of 16 is all it takes.


167 posted on 07/30/2006 3:52:08 PM PDT by DB (©)
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To: rface

Good!

With President Bush abandoning Israel today, the supposed best firend the Jews have ever had.

F the GOP!


168 posted on 07/30/2006 3:53:12 PM PDT by funkywbr
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To: Extremely Extreme Extremist; All

Naw I'm going to sit at home cause of one issue never mind it is going to take years to undo some of the stuff the left has done.. /s...


169 posted on 07/30/2006 3:53:12 PM PDT by KevinDavis (http://www.cafepress.com/spacefuture)
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To: uncbob

Gingrich's Contract With America was in 94 - since you referred to it.


170 posted on 07/30/2006 3:53:57 PM PDT by DB (©)
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To: BushMeister

"So, say, gun (and ammunition) rights, "hate speech" laws, immigration policy (imagine Teddy Kennedy having carte blanche), military spending, military policy and planning, sovereignty issues (U.N. tax, World Court, etc.), social issues (abortion funding, gay marriage, English as official language) etc. etc. etc. don't matter?"

Of course they matter. What would be better for those issues.....big government, or small government?


171 posted on 07/30/2006 3:54:03 PM PDT by RFEngineer
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To: Coop
Didn't get beyond this drivel. Come back when you're ready to talk some sense.

Well said. There is at least a 3-1 ratio of conservative Republicans to RINOs. There are good conservatives fighting the good fight, and to complain or stay home because of the other 25% RINOs only hurts the conservative Republicans overall.

172 posted on 07/30/2006 3:57:12 PM PDT by Extremely Extreme Extremist (404 Page Error Found)
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To: DB
Gingrich's Contract With America was in 94 - since you referred to it.

I know that
Newt still thinks that is why they won in 94 and my post was setting that straight

He ALSO came out in 98 and predicted an additional 25 seat pick up which was delusional
173 posted on 07/30/2006 3:59:32 PM PDT by uncbob
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To: rface

If the public knew that the IRS contractor that failed to deliver the cheater software was a Haliburton subsidirary then they'd vote GOP by 10 points.

It's time to leak the story to the NYT.


174 posted on 07/30/2006 4:04:16 PM PDT by ARW3A
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To: Torie
Give it another thirty days to firm up, I don't see a lot of trends.
175 posted on 07/30/2006 4:07:39 PM PDT by Little Bill (A 37%'r, a Red Spot on a Blue State, rats are evil.)
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To: Coop

When the Republicans hold both houses, the shock will be profound.

Everyone is saying that the 6th year of a Presidency is the worst for the party holding Congress.

I would like to remind everyone of 1998, when WE almost lost control of the House after the impeachment stuff.


Maybe the conventional wisdom ain't so wise.


176 posted on 07/30/2006 4:11:43 PM PDT by Dog Gone
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Comment #177 Removed by Moderator

To: rface
The item that has the GOP in trouble is illegal immigration. Their support for these lawbreakers has been downright evil.
178 posted on 07/30/2006 4:17:42 PM PDT by GarySpFc (Jesus on Immigration, John 10:1)
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To: DB

I'm sorry, I guess I misunderstood your post.
susie


179 posted on 07/30/2006 4:18:15 PM PDT by brytlea (amnesty--an act of clemency by an authority by which pardon is granted esp. to a group of individual)
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To: Dave S

**The pollsters must have some secret methods because they are still able to predict quite closely the actual results of the various contests**

The pollsters can't even get exit polls right anymore it seems to me.


180 posted on 07/30/2006 4:19:37 PM PDT by Swiss
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