Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

30-Year Weather Forecast By Japan
The Telegraph (UK) ^ | 7-20-2006 | Colin Joyce

Posted on 07/20/2006 6:19:10 PM PDT by blam

30-year weather forecast by Japan

By Colin Joyce in Tokyo

(Filed: 20/07/2006)

Japan's science ministry hopes to harness the power of a supercomputer called the Earth Simulator to deliver forecasts 30 years into the future.

The computer, which occupies a warehouse in Yokohama, is one of the most powerful in the world. Scientists will use it to analyse long-term trends using data such as atmospheric pressure, global air and sea temperatures, crust movements and currents.

The forecasts will tell which areas are likely to experience recurring disasters such as typhoons, storms, heavy snow, coastal erosion and droughts. The government may be able to divert money and resources into those areas in advance, either to take counteractive prevention measures or to ensure rapid response.

Farmers may also be able to plan crop planting based on the changing environment.

Japan's vulnerability to the weather was underlined yesterday as 21 people in central and western Japan were reported missing or killed by torrential rains that swept away houses and destroyed roads. Flooding and mudslides are common in the summer months, as typhoons bring intense rain.

The Earth Simulator was launched in 2002 but until now it has been used to predict weather in the short-term. Until 2004, when surpassed by IBM's Blue Gene, it was the world's fastest computer, able to undertake 35 trillion calculations per second.

The ministry is intending to launch the new project by spring next year, investing in the region of £10 to £15 million a year.

Now the ministry is working on refining the simulation models, which are crucial to accurate projection.

The project is expected to cover the whole planet, producing forecasts for areas of the globe as small as two square miles.


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 30year; by; climatechange; environment; forecast; japan; oldfarmersalmanac; weather
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-25 next last

1 posted on 07/20/2006 6:19:17 PM PDT by blam
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: blam

Hasn't Al Gore already done this?


2 posted on 07/20/2006 6:19:49 PM PDT by Loyal Buckeye
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: blam

And it will be accurate for the first 5 days.


3 posted on 07/20/2006 6:22:26 PM PDT by Right Wing Assault ("..this administration is planning a 'Right Wing Assault' on values and ideals.." - John Kerry)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: blam

I hope it's smart enough to predict solar storms and volcanic erutpions 30 years in advance, or it's pretty worthless.


4 posted on 07/20/2006 6:23:31 PM PDT by Dog Gone
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: blam

Don't tell me. Located in Kyoto.


5 posted on 07/20/2006 6:23:34 PM PDT by johniegrad
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Right Wing Assault

...not that long... :)


6 posted on 07/20/2006 6:24:33 PM PDT by DennisR (Look around - God is giving you countless observable clues of His existence!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: blam

Lemme guess...July 21st,2036 -- Paltry Croudy.


7 posted on 07/20/2006 6:26:43 PM PDT by Ruddles
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: blam
Hey!
Just hit 80% on 30 day forecasts and the Nobel Prize is yours.

The score for all present and past supercomputers and software in predicting weather that has already happened is zero...

And those are what all "global warming" BS is based on...

8 posted on 07/20/2006 6:27:57 PM PDT by Publius6961 (Multiculturalism is the white flag of a dying country)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Ruddles

Great, that's my brothers birthday and we have a picnic planned. He'll be 85,


9 posted on 07/20/2006 6:34:44 PM PDT by kempster
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: Loyal Buckeye
Hasn't Al Gore already done this?

Maybe, But Adrian Cronehauer beat him to it:

Can you help me? What's your name? "My name's Roosevelt E. Roosevelt."

Roosevelt, what town are you stationed in?. "I'm stationed in Poontang."

Well, thank you, Roosevelt. What's the weather like out there?

"It's hot. Damn hot! Real hot!

Hottest things is my shorts. I could cook things in it. A little crotch pot cooking."

Well, can you tell me what it feels like. "Fool, it's hot! I told you again!

Were you born on the sun? It's damn hot!

I saw-- It's so damn hot, I saw little guys, their orange robes burst into flames.

It's that hot! Do you know what I'm talking about."

What do you think it's going to be like tonight? "It's gonna be hot and wet!

That's nice if you're with a lady, but it ain't no good if you're in the jungle."

Thank you, Roosevelt. Here's a song coming your way right now.


10 posted on 07/20/2006 6:38:24 PM PDT by Michael.SF. (The problem with socialism is that eventually you run out of other peoples money -- M. Thatcher)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: kempster

Slight chance of showers alternating with sunny periods, dusting of snow at higher elevations, go ahead and plan the birthday picnic, just wear appropriate clothing, drink plenty of fluids and give thanks that a supercomputer has figured all this out for you.


11 posted on 07/20/2006 6:40:07 PM PDT by Ruddles
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: blam

That's impossible! 30 years from now there won't be an earth. Just ask Algore!


12 posted on 07/20/2006 6:42:32 PM PDT by Scarchin (+)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: blam
The Earth Simulator was launched in 2002 but until now it has been used to predict weather in the short-term.

How did that work out? Did it 50% accuracy?

13 posted on 07/20/2006 6:45:21 PM PDT by operation clinton cleanup
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Right Wing Assault
And it will be accurate for the first 5 days

Evidently they've never heard of Chaos Theory or chaotic number systems, as in "when a butterly flaps its wings in Detroit the weather changes in Peking". I used to play around with computer simulations of chaotic positive feedback systems, and there's NO WAY to predict weather for more than a few days at a time.

14 posted on 07/20/2006 6:46:57 PM PDT by Dumpster Baby ("Hope somebody finds me before the rats do .....")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: blam

"High in the low to mid-upper seventies for the 2025 80th Hiroshima anniversary..."


15 posted on 07/20/2006 6:47:03 PM PDT by Extremely Extreme Extremist (Wanna win the war on poverty? Cut taxes. Cut government spending.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: blam

Here's my forecast: It'll be hot in Texas all summer, like through October. Then it'll get cool, then pretty cold in Jan-Feb, then hot again around May. Repeat.


16 posted on 07/20/2006 6:47:48 PM PDT by manic4organic
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: blam

Not even the most accurate supercomputer in the world can predict future climate trends. Things like asteroids, solar flares, nuclear bombs are a bit unpredictable.


17 posted on 07/20/2006 6:48:59 PM PDT by MinorityRepublican (Everyone that doesn't like what America and President Bush has done for Iraq can all go to HELL)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Right Wing Assault

"And it will be accurate for the first 5 days."

You're dreaming, they can't even get it right for tomorrow half the time.


18 posted on 07/20/2006 6:51:44 PM PDT by dalereed
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: Ruddles

I'm just glad that someone posted this. It reminded me that tomorrow is my brothers birthday. 55


19 posted on 07/20/2006 6:53:36 PM PDT by kempster
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: All

Other neat things the ES is used for.

# Research for method of protein structure analyzing using X-ray by using Drug Design system on computer (NEC)
# Simulation of Organic Material for Optical Properties (Sumitomo Chemical Corporation, Tsukuba Institute)
# Development of Ecological High-Performance Tire by Modeling of Nano-Particle Network Structure in Rubber (SRI Group/Sumitomo Rubber Industries, Ltd.)
# Development of environment symbiosis urban planning method with whole building environment simulation (Taisei Corporation)
# Large-scale simulation for design the structure and property of novel nano-material (Honda R&D Co., Ltd. Wako Basic Technology Research Center)


20 posted on 07/20/2006 6:53:59 PM PDT by RFC_Gal
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-25 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson