Posted on 07/20/2006 6:19:10 PM PDT by blam
30-year weather forecast by Japan
By Colin Joyce in Tokyo
(Filed: 20/07/2006)
Japan's science ministry hopes to harness the power of a supercomputer called the Earth Simulator to deliver forecasts 30 years into the future.
The computer, which occupies a warehouse in Yokohama, is one of the most powerful in the world. Scientists will use it to analyse long-term trends using data such as atmospheric pressure, global air and sea temperatures, crust movements and currents.
The forecasts will tell which areas are likely to experience recurring disasters such as typhoons, storms, heavy snow, coastal erosion and droughts. The government may be able to divert money and resources into those areas in advance, either to take counteractive prevention measures or to ensure rapid response.
Farmers may also be able to plan crop planting based on the changing environment.
Japan's vulnerability to the weather was underlined yesterday as 21 people in central and western Japan were reported missing or killed by torrential rains that swept away houses and destroyed roads. Flooding and mudslides are common in the summer months, as typhoons bring intense rain.
The Earth Simulator was launched in 2002 but until now it has been used to predict weather in the short-term. Until 2004, when surpassed by IBM's Blue Gene, it was the world's fastest computer, able to undertake 35 trillion calculations per second.
The ministry is intending to launch the new project by spring next year, investing in the region of £10 to £15 million a year.
Now the ministry is working on refining the simulation models, which are crucial to accurate projection.
The project is expected to cover the whole planet, producing forecasts for areas of the globe as small as two square miles.
Hasn't Al Gore already done this?
And it will be accurate for the first 5 days.
I hope it's smart enough to predict solar storms and volcanic erutpions 30 years in advance, or it's pretty worthless.
Don't tell me. Located in Kyoto.
...not that long... :)
Lemme guess...July 21st,2036 -- Paltry Croudy.
The score for all present and past supercomputers and software in predicting weather that has already happened is zero...
And those are what all "global warming" BS is based on...
Great, that's my brothers birthday and we have a picnic planned. He'll be 85,
Maybe, But Adrian Cronehauer beat him to it:
Can you help me? What's your name? "My name's Roosevelt E. Roosevelt."
Roosevelt, what town are you stationed in?. "I'm stationed in Poontang."
Well, thank you, Roosevelt. What's the weather like out there?
"It's hot. Damn hot! Real hot!
Hottest things is my shorts. I could cook things in it. A little crotch pot cooking."
Well, can you tell me what it feels like. "Fool, it's hot! I told you again!
Were you born on the sun? It's damn hot!
I saw-- It's so damn hot, I saw little guys, their orange robes burst into flames.
It's that hot! Do you know what I'm talking about."
What do you think it's going to be like tonight? "It's gonna be hot and wet!
That's nice if you're with a lady, but it ain't no good if you're in the jungle."
Thank you, Roosevelt. Here's a song coming your way right now.
Slight chance of showers alternating with sunny periods, dusting of snow at higher elevations, go ahead and plan the birthday picnic, just wear appropriate clothing, drink plenty of fluids and give thanks that a supercomputer has figured all this out for you.
That's impossible! 30 years from now there won't be an earth. Just ask Algore!
How did that work out? Did it 50% accuracy?
Evidently they've never heard of Chaos Theory or chaotic number systems, as in "when a butterly flaps its wings in Detroit the weather changes in Peking". I used to play around with computer simulations of chaotic positive feedback systems, and there's NO WAY to predict weather for more than a few days at a time.
"High in the low to mid-upper seventies for the 2025 80th Hiroshima anniversary..."
Here's my forecast: It'll be hot in Texas all summer, like through October. Then it'll get cool, then pretty cold in Jan-Feb, then hot again around May. Repeat.
Not even the most accurate supercomputer in the world can predict future climate trends. Things like asteroids, solar flares, nuclear bombs are a bit unpredictable.
"And it will be accurate for the first 5 days."
You're dreaming, they can't even get it right for tomorrow half the time.
I'm just glad that someone posted this. It reminded me that tomorrow is my brothers birthday. 55
Other neat things the ES is used for.
# Research for method of protein structure analyzing using X-ray by using Drug Design system on computer (NEC)
# Simulation of Organic Material for Optical Properties (Sumitomo Chemical Corporation, Tsukuba Institute)
# Development of Ecological High-Performance Tire by Modeling of Nano-Particle Network Structure in Rubber (SRI Group/Sumitomo Rubber Industries, Ltd.)
# Development of environment symbiosis urban planning method with whole building environment simulation (Taisei Corporation)
# Large-scale simulation for design the structure and property of novel nano-material (Honda R&D Co., Ltd. Wako Basic Technology Research Center)
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